🛢️ GAPUMA GROUP | MARKET INTELLIGENCE | 20 MAY 2026
Hormuz, Beijing and Moscow: The Geopolitics of Oil Are Being Rewritten in Real Time The movement of two Chinese supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz today – the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, carrying approximately 4 million barrels of crude after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months – has sent an immediate and unmistakeable signal to commodity markets. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news. This is not merely a shipping story. It is a geopolitical statement. The vessels’ passage comes as President Trump and President Xi concluded a two-day summit in Beijing, with a White House official describing the talks as “good.” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China would work behind the scenes to help reopen the strait, noting that Beijing has “a much bigger interest in reopening the strait than the US does.” Beijing, characteristically, said nothing publicly about Hormuz – Chinese state media reported only that the leaders “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation.” Silence, in diplomacy, is often the loudest language. Iran has reportedly sought to implement a toll system for vessels crossing Hormuz – a brazen assertion of sovereign authority over an international waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. That Chinese-flagged supertankers are now moving freely while broader restrictions remain in place is a pointed reminder of where true leverage lies. Meanwhile, closer to home, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorised the import of Russian-refined diesel and jet fuel into the UK indefinitely, alongside a temporary licence permitting the maritime transport of Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal terminals. The government frames it as pragmatism. Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson told Sky News the government was “acting pragmatically to insulate British citizens from the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.” Critics – not least opposition leader Kemi Badenoch – see it differently: as analysts have noted, from Moscow’s perspective, it demonstrates that Western countries are “not that committed to a sanctions regime” when their own consumers feel the pinch. The broader picture is stark. Global oil supply has declined by 12.8 mb/d in total since February, with output from Gulf countries affected by the Strait’s closure running 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. The IEA projects a decline of 3.9 mb/d on average across 2026, assuming flows gradually resume from June. The United Nations has already cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% this year, against an estimated 3% last year, citing higher energy costs and weaker trade. For commodities and futures desks, the key questions now are whether today’s tanker movements represent a genuine reopening or a bilateral Chinese carve-out – and whether the gap between the two matters less than markets think. Wood Mackenzie has estimated Brent could approach $200 a barrel if the Strait remains largely shut until the end of the year. The downside scenario, by contrast, assumes a rapid diplomatic resolution that supply chains are ill-prepared to absorb smoothly. At Gapuma Group, we are watching these developments closely across energy, commodities and futures markets. The rules of the game are changing – and the players setting them are not all where they used to be. For market intelligence, trading insights and strategic analysis, connect with the Gapuma Group team.
The Emperor Comes to Beijing — Without His Clothes
14 May 2026 By: Shahab MOSSAVAT When Donald Trump first touched down in Beijing in November 2017, Xi Jinping laid on the full theatre of imperial hospitality: a private dinner in the Forbidden City, a parade through Tiananmen Square, and the announcement of $250 billion in business deals – a figure so grand it dwarfed the entire annual GDP of West Virginia, where one of its headline memoranda of understanding was supposedly centred. Almost none of it materialised. The symbolism, however, was exquisitely chosen. China was telling the world – and telling Trump – who was truly in charge. Nine years on, the pageantry at Beijing Capital International Airport on Wednesday – the honour guard, the schoolchildren chanting in Mandarin, the skyscrapers lit with welcoming characters – carried an almost identical message, delivered with rather more pointed subtlety. Air Force One landed, and a US president who had spent his first term threatening to break China, and his second term actually trying to, stepped onto a red carpet laid by a nation that had absorbed his blows, weaponised its advantages in response, and emerged from the encounter structurally stronger. Donald Trump is greeted at Beijing airport by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng The shift in the bilateral power dynamic is not subtle. It is measurable, documented and, for Washington, deeply uncomfortable. When Trump arrived in 2017, the United States still held most of the conventional cards: it was the world’s pre-eminent consumer market, the anchor of the dollar-denominated global financial system, and the unchallenged custodian of the rules-based international order. China was formidable but still, in important respects, dependent – on American technology, American markets and American acquiescence. Trump’s instinct, brutal in its simplicity, was to exploit that dependency through tariffs. What he did not foresee was that a decade of patient strategic investment had quietly altered the underlying geometry. Consider the arithmetic of the current summit. Trump arrives in Beijing wanting concessions: market entry for American companies, Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft and US soybeans, a softening of rare earth export restrictions that brought his own industrial economy to the edge of a supply crisis. Xi, by contrast, wants stability – time to consolidate a technological and industrial position that has already, by most independent assessments, reached escape velocity. The asymmetry is telling. One leader is shopping for wins to take home to voters ahead of bruising midterm elections. The other is managing a civilisational project measured in decades. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, put it with characteristic precision in CNBC on the day the summit opened: “China comes into this meeting far more confident than in 2017, when it feared even a small rise in US tariffs. In the last year, Xi has been able to push back and neutralise much of Trump’s actions.” 2017 v 2026: Change in Body Language? Central to China’s structural advantage is its commanding position in the global shipping and logistics system – a dominance so comprehensive that it shapes the price of practically everything that moves by sea. By mid-2024, China had invested in ports in 16 of the top 20 nations for shipping connectivity. Roughly 27 per cent of global container trade now passes through terminals partly or wholly owned by Chinese or Hong Kong-based companies. In 2024 alone, China’s largest state-owned shipbuilder produced more commercial tonnage than the entire United States shipbuilding industry has delivered since the Second World War. Shanghai handled 51.5 million TEUs in 2024, making it the world’s busiest port – five times the throughput of Los Angeles and Long Beach combined. When China flexes its position in containerised freight, it is not merely adjusting a commercial variable. It is moving a lever that governs global commodity pricing across industries from automotive parts to pharmaceuticals, from agricultural produce to consumer electronics. The United States, which conducts the overwhelming majority of its trade by sea, sits downstream of that lever. Underpinning this logistical supremacy is a strategic energy architecture that took shape long before Trump’s tariff wars began. China’s early and consistent investment in Iranian crude – formalised in the 25-year, $400 billion cooperation agreement whose foundations Xi Jinping himself proposed during a 2016 visit to Tehran – secured access to oil trading at an $8–10 discount per barrel below global benchmarks. While Western economies lurched from one energy shock to the next, buffeted by sanctions regimes and geopolitical crises they themselves often authored, Beijing was buying Iranian crude at predictable, heavily discounted rates through independent refiners insulated from direct sanction exposure. More broadly, Xi’s decade-long programme of energy self-sufficiency – wind, solar, hydropower, domestic drilling and diversified import partnerships – has positioned China to weather disruptions that send other economies into crisis. The current US-Israel war against Iran, which has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and sent global energy prices spiralling, is a case in point. China’s energy fortress, as analysts at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy have noted, appears to be passing its sternest test. That cannot be said of the United States. Yangshan: The world’s busiest container port handling more than 50 million TEUs annually The technological transformation is perhaps the most significant shift of all. China is no longer, in any meaningful sense, the cheap-labour assembly floor of the global economy. Its “Made in China 2025” industrial strategy has delivered on its core promises with a thoroughness that has alarmed Western analysts. China now leads the world in industrial robotics installations, dominates the clean technology supply chain from lithium batteries to solar panels, and – with DeepSeek’s R1 model launching in early 2025 to international astonishment – has demonstrated serious, applied artificial intelligence capability that challenges American primacy in what was supposed to be a US-led domain. In rare earths, which sit at the chokepoint of every advanced technology from fighter jets to electric vehicles to AI semiconductors, Beijing controls 85–90 per cent of […]
Final day of ChinaPlas 2026 in Shanghai — and what an exceptional week it’s been
24 April 2026 A hugely successful event for Gapuma Group Limited. Our team has made extensive new connections, strengthened existing relationships, and laid the foundations for long-term partnerships across the global plastics and rubber industry. Just as importantly, we’ve seen first-hand the innovation, expertise, and forward thinking shaping the future of our sector — a powerful reminder of the pace and potential of this market. Thank you to everyone who took the time to meet with Russell Brill, Mihael Nahmias and Kishor Ubrani (Gapuma, Ghana). We look forward to continuing the conversations.
Gapuma at ChinaPlas 2026 – See You in Shanghai
16 April 2026 We are delighted to announce that Gapuma will be represented at ChinaPlas 2026 in Shanghai next week (21-24 April), where our Purchasing Director, Russell Brill, and Head of Polymers, Mihael Nahmias, will be in attendance. ChinaPlas is one of the most significant events in the global plastics and rubber industry calendar – a unique opportunity to connect with the brightest minds in the business, explore the latest innovations shaping our industry, and strengthen the relationships that drive it forward. For those of us who believe in the power of face-to-face dialogue, there is truly no substitute. Gapuma’s presence at events such as this reflects our enduring commitment to the industry we serve – a commitment to staying at the forefront of market developments, fostering long-term partnerships, and delivering the very best for our customers and suppliers across the globe. If you or your colleagues are also attending ChinaPlas this year, we would love to connect. Please do reach out to Russell or Mihael directly – we look forward to seeing you in Shanghai.
🐣 The Gapuma Spring Lunch – A Q1 Tradition Every year, as Easter approaches, the Gapuma London team pauses – just briefly – to come together, take stock of the quarter behind us, and look ahead to what’s coming. This year, that felt more important than ever. Q1 2026 has been, by any measure, one of the most turbulent quarters in recent memory. Shifting trade flows, geopolitical volatility, and markets that have kept all of us on our toes. There is plenty to reflect on – and plenty to plan for. But first, lunch – and this year, there was rather more to celebrate than usual. The table did not disappoint. Coronation chicken and smoked salmon finger sandwiches, brie & cranberry and mozzarella & pesto vegetarian platters, chicken pesto pasta salad, falafel with hummus, mixed wraps, a rather magnificent spread of patisserie, chocolate éclairs, cream puffs – and, of course, the Easter eggs that have become something of a Gapuma institution. Raised glasses went to Neha Sampat, Head of Operations, marking a remarkable 15 years with Gapuma – a tenure that speaks for itself. To Stephen Harris, Operations Director, on his birthday. And to Mike Short and Saju Mullumangalam, who both celebrated birthdays on 1st April – a happy coincidence that made the occasion all the more festive. We were also delighted to welcome Luka Bouffard-Innes, our newly recruited Junior Trader, to his first Gapuma Spring Lunch – a proper rite of passage. And there was a very welcome surprise when Group Managing Director Jack Bardakjian made a flying visit, which lifted the room considerably. At Gapuma, we believe that a team which eats together, thinks together. Here’s to Q2.
Is comprehensive globalism over?
What the Iran War means for physical commodity traders 24 March 2026 The Financial Times has been asking hard questions about the structural shift now under way in global business – and the conclusions demand attention from anyone in physical commodities. FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf is unambiguous: “The worst case is that this will be one of the biggest shocks in the postwar period.” Meanwhile, FT columnist Tej Parikh cuts to a deeper vulnerability: “Investors have committed trillions of dollars to the technology, one of the most power-hungry inventions ever, on the assumption of ample energy supplies and a slick chip production line that can cross more than 70 borders before reaching the final consumer. But the Iran war is exposing the fragilities in the AI supply chain.” If that assumption of frictionless global logistics is now in doubt for the digital economy, it raises an equally sharp question for physical commodity traders: is the model of seamless, borderless trade still viable? The honest answer is: not unconditionally. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated that a single chokepoint can simultaneously disrupt energy, fertiliser, industrial gases and shipping insurance markets. Supply chains engineered for efficiency rather than resilience are being exposed for what they are. Three conclusions stand out. Hyper-globalised sourcing is a liability without redundancy built in. Global trade is not over, but it is being repriced around risk. And those with established local distribution networks are navigating this crisis measurably better than those dependent on long, centralised chains. Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director of Gapuma Group, is direct on this point: “Every experienced commodity trader understands that price is only half the equation – the other half is access. When the architecture of global trade is under this kind of stress, access becomes everything. Local presence, local relationships, local knowledge – these are not peripheral considerations. They are the hard infrastructure of the business.” The world will trade again. But the terms on which it does so are being rewritten. Primary source: Financial Times, 12 March 2026, and related FT reporting
US Tariff Uncertainty: The enemy of business isn’t the tariff. It’s the chaos surrounding it
24 February 2026 When the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of emergency powers under IEEPA to impose sweeping global tariffs, markets briefly exhaled. That relief lasted roughly 24 hours. Within a day, the administration had invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act – a statute never previously used – to reimpose a 15% universal tariff rate. The EU, which had recently concluded what it believed was a settled trade agreement with Washington, was blunt in its response: “A deal is a deal.” It was also, apparently, an optimistic assumption. This is the central problem. Tariffs, as a tool of economic policy, are not inherently lethal to global trade. They raise costs, they distort supply chains, they disproportionately burden weaker economies – applying identical flat rates to Bangladesh and Germany is not a neutral act – but businesses can adapt to a fixed landscape. They reprice, they reroute, they renegotiate. What they cannot do is build rational strategy on shifting sand. Fitch Ratings has noted that despite any temporary respite, US corporates continue to face renewed uncertainty, with supply chain and margin planning effectively on hold. Reuters similarly observed that the Supreme Court ruling, whilst constraining presidential power, has not resolved the fundamental instability facing trading partners. The irony is that judicial intervention – designed as a corrective – has, at least in the short term, amplified the turbulence rather than contained it. Every legal challenge resets the clock without resetting the uncertainty. At Gapuma Group, we work across markets where predictability underpins investment decisions. What we are watching now is not the tariff level. It is the governance of trade policy itself – and that, at present, offers little comfort.
Global Growth Steady at 3% – So Why Is Britain Lagging Behind?
12 February 2026 The global economy is maintaining a resilient 3% growth trajectory in 2026, according to the ACCA Global Economic Outlook. Yet Britain’s economy tells a starkly different story. The EY ITEM Club’s Winter Forecast projects UK GDP growth of just 0.9% this year – one of the weakest performances in the G7. More concerning for those of us in physical commodities: business investment is forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2026, a sharp downgrade from November’s 0.8% growth prediction. The contrast is striking. Whilst the US leads G7 growth and emerging markets demonstrate surprising resilience despite unprecedented tariff disruptions, Britain splutters. GDP per capita grew by merely 1% in 2025 after zero growth in 2024 – hardly the transformation promised eighteen months ago. What’s holding the UK back? Persistent policy uncertainty, weak business confidence, and a construction sector in the doldrums despite ambitious housing targets. For commodity traders, the implications are clear: whilst global trade adapts to new realities and maintains momentum, UK domestic demand remains anaemic. The government’s fiscal tightening, frozen income tax thresholds, and employer National Insurance increases are weighing heavily on growth. Meanwhile, our global competitors press ahead. As EY notes, the Bank of England may deliver one final rate cut in April, but monetary policy alone cannot overcome these structural headwinds. For Gapuma Group and the wider commodities sector, the message is unambiguous: opportunity lies in global markets showing genuine dynamism, not in a UK economy stuck in low gear. The world economy is proving adaptable and resilient. Britain needs to match that energy – urgently.
Senior Gapuma Team at GTR Africa 2025, London
25th November 2025 Gapuma sent a strong delegation to GTR Africa 2025 on 20th November, joining more than 500 trade finance leaders who convened in London to examine the continent’s shifting trade and export landscape. Operations Director Stephen Harris, Business Development Manager Yanish Bhageerutty, and Operations Manager Neha Sampat attended the conference at Convene 155 Bishopsgate, engaging with specialists across six core themes shaping the future of African trade. Key Conference HighlightsDiscussions centred on Africa’s strategic response to global geopolitical realignment, the need to strengthen long-term resilience in intra-African trade, and the importance of developing local banking capacity. Delegates explored innovative working capital solutions, evolving infrastructure and supply-chain priorities, and structuring techniques for export credit transactions. With sixty-one expert speakers and representatives from 277 organisations, the event offered exceptional networking opportunities. Panels addressed Africa’s integration into global value chains, the challenges of sovereign debt, and the expanding influence of export credit agencies across the continent. Sessions on commodity trade financing, supply-chain optimisation, and digital trade frameworks — including MLETR and the adoption of the Commonwealth Model Law — were particularly relevant to Gapuma’s operational footprint. The evening networking reception concluded the programme, reinforcing relationships essential for advancing Africa’s trade finance ecosystem in a complex and rapidly evolving global environment. Gapuma’s participation reflects our commitment to remaining at the forefront of African trade, export finance, and logistics solutions.
AI and the Future of Physical Commodities Trading
12th November 2025 At Gapuma Group, after 25 years of moving chemicals, fertilisers, and essential commodities from more than 30 countries to over 50 global markets, we are seeing first-hand how artificial intelligence is reshaping the world of physical trading. AI adoption varies widely across our trade routes. In some sourcing markets, AI-driven supply chain systems, automated quality control, and demand forecasting tools are already integrated into daily operations. Elsewhere, progress is slower—often shaped by connectivity limitations, power reliability, and the uneven development of data infrastructure. The technology’s effects are most visible in logistics and price discovery. Predictive models now track port operations, route efficiency, and seasonal demand to optimise cargo flows, particularly for time-sensitive agricultural inputs. Real-time analysis of exchange data, freight markets, and global pricing trends is compressing decision-making windows. Meanwhile, advanced risk models assess everything from currency movements to regulatory changes across multiple jurisdictions simultaneously. Infrastructure remains the decisive factor. High-capacity AI systems perform best where data is structured and connectivity is strong. In other environments, effectiveness depends on agility—mobile-first tools, offline-capable platforms, and lighter models that respond to local trading conditions. At Gapuma, we integrate AI where it adds genuine value—improving logistics, forecasting, and supplier analytics—while remaining grounded in what has always underpinned our business: trusted relationships, deep market knowledge, and sound human judgement. The future of trading is not only digital; it is adaptive.
Gapuma Switzerland at the Sharp End of Global Methanol Markets
6th November 2025 Fabrice Brunet, Managing Director of Gapuma Switzerland, travelled to Singapore this week to attend the International Methanol Conference 2025 (IMC 2025), held from 4th–6th November at the Pan Pacific Singapore. The Industry’s Annual ParliamentSince 2006, this annual gathering—organised by MMSA for the IMPCA International Methanol Producers & Consumers Association—has brought together suppliers, consumers, traders, and service providers in what has become the methanol industry’s most influential forum. In a year marked by market uncertainty, pricing pressure, shifting trade flows, and geopolitical tensions, IMC 2025 convened global leaders across two intensive days. Crucially, it remains the venue for Asia’s annual contract negotiations—where meaningful business is often concluded in the margins, over coffee and corridor conversations. Why Singapore MattersThere is a reason this meeting is held in Singapore rather than Zurich or Houston. The city-state’s rise as Asia’s foremost energy and commodities hub reflects broader shifts in global economic gravity. Its regulatory sophistication, logistical strengths, and strategic geography make it the natural home for an industry increasingly shaped by Asian demand. Methanol: The Quiet DisruptorWhile public debate tends to focus on hydrogen and batteries, methanol continues to reshape markets with far less fanfare. Serving both as a vital chemical feedstock and an emerging marine fuel, it occupies a unique space—rooted in the traditional hydrocarbon economy yet integral to global decarbonisation strategies. Why Gapuma Prioritises This EventGapuma’s presence at IMC 2025 reflects strategic priorities: access to market intelligence that differentiates opportunity from risk; relationship-building with the producers, consumers, and traders who influence global flows; close monitoring of developments in renewable methanol; and an understanding of Asian dynamics that increasingly define the sector’s future. As Gapuma expands its footprint in renewable fuels and chemical feedstocks, events like IMC 2025 provide invaluable context. The insights gathered in Singapore will directly inform our trading strategies and long-term positioning in markets where being six months early can look perilously similar to being six months late. We extend our thanks to MMSA and IMPCA for another outstanding conference.
Strengthening Our Biofuels Vision
— Introducing Charles Percheron 4th November 2025 Gapuma is delighted to announce that Charles Percheron has joined our Switzerland office in Nyon as Senior Biodiesel Trader. Charles will play a central role in expanding Gapuma’s global biofuels footprint, strengthening our position in biodiesel and sustainable feedstocks. With more than fourteen years’ experience across physical and derivative commodity trading, brokerage, and operations, he brings an outstanding track record of performance, innovation, and market insight. Based in Nyon, Charles combines a deep understanding of biodiesel markets with a sophisticated, multi-layered approach to business development and a passion for data-driven, forward-looking trading strategies. His appointment reinforces our strategic commitment to the energy transition and to scaling sustainable commodities across international supply chains. As we continue to invest in future-focused fuels, we look forward to accelerating global progress in sustainability and low-carbon logistics. Please join us in welcoming Charles to the Gapuma family and wishing him every success in this exciting new chapter.