As NATO Meets in The Hague, Trump Feels Vindicated on 5%
25th June 2025 At this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, a once-dismissed proposition is gaining real traction: that member states should work towards allocating 5% of GDP to defence. What began as a controversial demand from Donald Trump — decried at the time as antagonistic and outlandish — is now being seriously discussed as a necessary strategic shift in an increasingly fragmented world order. The proposal, broken down into 3.5% for core defence and 1.5% for critical infrastructure and resilience, reflects the growing realisation that conventional deterrence, cyber-security, and supply chain security are no longer optional. They are essential to political and economic stability. As Trump often argued, NATO could not rely indefinitely on disproportionate American support. Today, many of his critics now echo the same logic — albeit through gritted teeth. Yet the story is not as simple as it first appears. Economic Implications and Commodities Impact From a market perspective, the macroeconomic effects of this shift are both vast and contradictory. On the one hand, a coordinated increase in defence budgets across NATO members would inject enormous stimulus into R&D, manufacturing, and logistics, particularly if procurement is channelled into domestic industries. For commodity-focused firms, including Gapuma, a surge in infrastructure and defence-linked investment may well create more predictable demand, greater state-backed contract certainty, and more stable long-term relationships. Critically, a better-funded defence-industrial base also strengthens the resilience of strategic supply chains, including those for energy, rare earth minerals, and base metals. In other words, defence spending can act as a structural support for the commodities sector, ensuring that supply chains remain operational even during geopolitical stress or disruption. However, not all the consequences are positive. As J.P. Morgan recently warned, heightened tensions or renewed conflict in the Middle East could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures already straining global economies. In a world of finite resources, increased defence and infrastructure demand may also exacerbate competition for commodities like lithium, cobalt, and copper — materials essential for both military and green technologies. This will likely drive up prices, fuel protectionism, and intensify environmental degradation as nations push harder into fragile ecosystems. Strategic Realignment or Strategic Drift? For the United States, a 5% commitment across NATO could provide the long-sought opportunity to rebalance towards the Indo-Pacific, while empowering European allies to shoulder more of their regional defence burden. But as Europe spends more, it may also demand more autonomy, and Washington’s status as prima inter pares within NATO may face growing challenges. The wider geopolitical effects remain uncertain. Greater defence spending may deter aggression — or provoke countermeasures. It may strengthen alliances — or expose fractures. Much will depend on execution, coordination, and whether 5% becomes more than just a headline figure. At Gapuma, we recognise that defence economics are increasingly central to global trade dynamics. The convergence of military preparedness and commercial resilience is not merely theoretical. It is a tangible and urgent challenge — and for forward-looking enterprises, also an opportunity.
The Return of the Special Relationship…
– Or Just the Shape of Trade to Come? 18th June 2025 While all eyes at the G7 summit were trained on the West’s fractured response to the escalating crisis in the Middle East, a quieter but potentially more consequential event took place on the sidelines. The United Kingdom and the United States finalised a long‑anticipated bilateral trade agreement—a milestone that may signal not only a new phase in transatlantic relations, but also a broader reshaping of global trade norms in an era defined by protectionism, realpolitik, and shifting alliances. A Deal for the Times The trade deal, while modest in scope, is politically significant. It reaffirms the mutual recognition of standards in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, financial services, and data flows. It also streamlines customs procedures and seeks to reduce certain non‑tariff barriers that have emerged post‑Brexit. Importantly, it locks in preferential terms for select British exports—steel, whisky, and automotive parts among them. But the concessions haven’t all been one‑way. The UK has agreed to allow greater access for certain US agricultural products, and has aligned with Washington’s digital‑service standards—seen by many as a departure from the EU’s more stringent regulatory model. While the British government is touting the agreement as a “pragmatic and future‑facing pact”, some in Westminster are privately acknowledging it as a necessary compromise to maintain relevance in a world where multilateralism is faltering. A New Bilateral Era? This agreement may well be a harbinger of things to come. With the World Trade Organization increasingly sidelined and the multilateral order under strain, bilateral treaties are fast becoming the architecture of modern commerce. As the Trump administration doubles down on “America First” trade policies, countries like the UK find themselves negotiating from a weaker hand—but with greater flexibility. Bilateralism allows for bespoke agreements, faster turnarounds, and the potential for more innovative cooperation, particularly in tech and green‑energy sectors. Indeed, Washington is currently in informal talks with India, and has floated trialling sector‑specific pacts with select Indo‑Pacific nations. It’s no coincidence that a resurgent United States is choosing bilateral forums over multilateral platforms—the former provides leverage, while the latter demands compromise. For the UK, this means recalibrating its post‑Brexit trade strategy to favour agility over alignment. The US deal may soon be followed by refreshed terms with Canada, Japan, and perhaps even Australia. And although a comprehensive UK–EU trade upgrade remains unlikely under current circumstances, incremental sectoral add‑ons are not off the table. Starmer: Picking Up the Pieces or Stooping to Conquer London Ascendant The political subtext of the US–UK deal is just as noteworthy as its commercial implications. Keir Starmer’s government has made no secret of its ambition to rekindle the so‑called “Special Relationship”—but with a more grounded, less romanticised approach than past governments. Recent moves point to the UK becoming a go‑to diplomatic interlocutor for Washington. Earlier this year, when the US sought a neutral location to initiate talks with China on reopening commercial aviation routes and managing export controls, it didn’t choose Geneva, Brussels or Berlin. It chose London. That decision speaks volumes. As The Economist recently noted, “The UK is rapidly positioning itself as America’s most reliable European partner,” with one unnamed senior US official remarking, “We know where we stand with London—especially under Starmer.” Adding further weight, Chancellor Rachel Reeves described Britain as an “oasis of stability” for investors, citing the new US trade deal as reinforcing that confidence. Nevertheless, not everyone is convinced. Critics warn that “transactionalists cannot be trusted in dealmaking,” pointing out that by aligning too closely with a fiercely transactional Washington, “once we have agreed to Plan A… it will be very hard for us to resist a subsequent and more damaging Plan B.” In a sense, Britain is playing the long game: embedding itself as indispensable to both Washington’s economic ambitions and its broader geopolitical strategy. The Cost of Relevance Of course, such positioning comes with trade‑offs. Critics argue that the UK is playing junior partner to an increasingly transactional America—repeating concerns that echo decades of scepticism. Others contend that in a world trending towards regional blocs—the EU, ASEAN, Mercosur—Britain’s choice to pursue bilateralism might limit its influence in the long term. Still, for the moment, the strategy appears to be paying dividends. The US deal may not be the grand free‑trade agreement once promised during the Brexit campaign, but it represents a tangible pivot away from isolation and towards strategic engagement. It’s not perfect. It may not even be entirely fair. But in a fragmented global economy, it may be the best available option. More importantly, it signals that Britain is prepared to act—not just as an independent trader, but as a key geopolitical player in an increasingly uncertain world.
🌍 Crude Oil Instability Renews Debate on Energy Strategy
17th June 2025 Volatility in global oil markets has once again come into sharp focus as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Crude prices have surged following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, pushing Brent close to the USD 80 mark—a level widely considered a threshold at which previously uneconomic sources of oil, such as shale and fracked reserves, start to re-enter the conversation. This development comes amid continued energy disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and increasingly fractured relations with Russia. As supply chains are tested and markets jitter, the conversation around energy resilience, security, and strategy is growing ever more urgent. At Gapuma, we remain mindful of the complex and often polarising nature of energy policy, particularly where fossil fuels such as fracked oil and gas are concerned. While fracking remains a subject of intense debate—on environmental, regulatory, and social grounds—what is undeniable is that rising oil prices tend to breathe new life into its economic case. At price points above USD 80 per barrel, advocates of fracking are likely to become more vocal, and investment interest could follow. However, it is essential to situate this debate within a broader strategic context. Short-term responses to supply shocks must not overshadow the longer-term imperative to create a more balanced and sustainable energy mix. Carbon-based fuels—while still an important part of global supply—must gradually yield to lower-emission alternatives that offer both environmental and geopolitical stability. Battery technologies, scalable renewables, green hydrogen, and smart grid infrastructure will all play increasingly pivotal roles in shaping the energy systems of tomorrow. These technologies reduce dependency on volatile imports, enhance domestic energy security, and contribute meaningfully to decarbonisation targets. As political analyst Marwan Bishara noted, “Energy has become the lifeblood of geopolitical power—a single disruption can reshape global alliances.” That reality has been laid bare in both Eastern Europe and the Gulf, and it continues to shape decision-making across boardrooms and governments alike. Reflecting on this moment, Jack Bardakjian, Gapuma’s Group Managing Director, said: “We need to be very judicious in the choices we make today to guarantee our energy security in the medium to longer term.” With the situation in Iran remaining fluid and the risk of further destabilisation high, the pressure on energy markets is likely to persist. Should a leadership vacuum emerge or regional conflict escalate, we could see further strain on oil flows and a renewed push by certain sectors for domestic energy sources, including shale and fracked hydrocarbons. Nonetheless, the long-term trajectory must point toward a healthier, more diversified global energy portfolio—one in which carbon-based fuels represent a smaller share and sustainability plays a greater role in both energy policy and investment decisions. Gapuma remains committed to providing insight and clarity at this critical junction, as markets, policymakers, and partners navigate the path ahead.
Gapuma Strengthens Industry Ties at ChemExpo 2025
08th May 2025 Gapuma was proud to participate in ChemExpo 2025, South Asia’s premier international exhibition for the chemical industry, held in Mumbai last week. The event brought together over 500 exhibitors and thousands of delegates from across the globe, offering a vital platform for knowledge exchange, commercial collaboration, and industry insight. Representing Gapuma at the event, our Channel and Product Manager, Sunil Bahl, engaged with a broad range of suppliers, distributors, and manufacturers operating across key sectors — including pharmaceuticals, personal care, polymers, textiles, industrial coatings, and more. Among the many constructive conversations was a detailed exchange with senior representatives of Sarex Overseas, a respected name in the speciality chemicals space with a strong international reputation built over more than sixty years. Their focus on diversified application areas closely reflects Gapuma’s own commitment to providing integrated solutions to clients across complex global markets. Participation in ChemExpo 2025 reaffirmed the value of physical industry gatherings in building trust, uncovering innovation, and fostering long-term relationships. As demand continues to rise for reliable, ethical, and sustainable chemical sourcing, Gapuma remains at the forefront of efforts to connect world-class producers with end users across emerging and established economies. We extend our thanks to the organisers of ChemExpo for curating such a vibrant and forward-looking event. We look forward to building on the many conversations started in Mumbai and to continuing our mission of delivering value through global trade, sectoral expertise, and partnership-led growth.
UK–India Trade Deal Opens New Horizons
07th May 2025 On Tuesday, the United Kingdom and India finalised a landmark free trade agreement aimed at increasing bilateral trade by £25.5 billion annually by 2040. The deal significantly reduces tariffs on a wide range of goods, including British exports such as cosmetics, medical devices, and aircraft components, while 99% of Indian exports — including textiles, foodstuffs, and jewellery — will face no import duty in the UK. For British commodities trading companies like Gapuma, which operates across sectors including, coatings, cosmetics, extractive industries, food and drink, manufacturing, and packaging, the agreement presents substantial opportunities. The reduction in tariffs on British goods exported to India, particularly in cosmetics and medical-grade products, aligns with Gapuma’s supply capabilities and could enhance its competitiveness in the Indian market. Furthermore, the removal of duties on the majority of Indian exports to the UK may benefit Gapuma’s sourcing strategies, particularly in textiles and food-related sectors, by reducing costs and broadening product availability. The deal’s provisions for goods and services trade, along with modest improvements to business mobility — including simplified visa access for Indian professionals — may further facilitate smoother operations and cross-border collaborations. As the global trading environment continues to evolve, Gapuma’s diversified portfolio and well-established international presence leave it well placed to take advantage of the new opportunities emerging from this UK–India agreement — a strategic move that could shape the future of commodities trading between two of the world’s largest economies.
Gapuma’s Russell Brill Embarks on High-Speed Procurement Tour of China
26th April 2o25 From Chinaplas to Qingdao: Strengthening Global Partnerships Gapuma’s Procurement Director, Russell Brill, has just returned from a whistle-stop 10-day tour of China, visiting key trade fairs and suppliers across the country. His first stop was Chinaplas 2025, held this year in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. With over 4,000 exhibitors from 40 countries and more than 380,000 visitors, Chinaplas is one of the world’s largest exhibitions for the polymer industry. The event provided an excellent opportunity to meet with manufacturers, suppliers, and customers from across the global plastics sector. Strengthening Ties in Qingdao and Beyond After three busy days at Chinaplas, Russell travelled north to Qingdao in Shandong Province, located on China’s Yellow Sea coast. Qingdao, famous for its Tsingtao beer and as the training ground of Britain’s greatest Olympic sailor, is also home to Gapuma’s China office. Shandong is a strategic hub for Gapuma, hosting many of the company’s established suppliers and a wide range of key industries. During his stay, Russell conducted pre-planned visits to prospective new manufacturing partners, part of Gapuma’s rigorous due diligence process, and met with existing suppliers both in Qingdao and the nearby city of Weifang. While in Qingdao, Russell – himself a very accomplished athlete – met the sibling of one of the recent Beijing Robot Marathon finishers — a memorable moment in a packed schedule!
Reflections on the Commonwealth Trade Summit
Navigating Multilateralism Amidst Protectionist Challenges 12 April 2025 The Commonwealth Trade and Investment Summit (CTIS), held in London this week, could yet prove to be a pivotal moment in the history of the Commonwealth, an organisation often described as “in search of a purpose”. With over 400 delegates from more than 40 countries in attendance, including business leaders, government officials, and representatives from multilateral institutions, the summit provided a platform for discussions aimed at reshaping the Commonwealth’s role in the evolving global trade landscape. At the heart of the summit was a renewed commitment to a transparent, inclusive, and rules-based multilateral trading system. As protectionist policies and trade barriers gain momentum worldwide, delegates highlighted the importance of a united Commonwealth in promoting free trade and fostering economic cooperation. “The Commonwealth represents a unique opportunity to lead the charge in global trade by standing united in the face of rising protectionist tendencies,” said Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment. “Now is the time for the Commonwealth to be an example of how countries can work together for mutual benefit.” While the summit focused on advancing trade relations, it also provided a chance to reflect on the Commonwealth’s evolution. For years, critics have questioned the organisation’s true purpose and its ability to navigate the complexities of the modern world. Yet, as the summit unfolded, there was a palpable sense that this gathering could mark a turning point, with the Commonwealth positioning itself to become a more influential force in the global economy. Rt Hon Patricia Scotland KC, Commonwealth Secretary-General, emphasised this potential when she spoke about the organisation’s ambitious goal of reaching $2 trillion in intra-Commonwealth trade by 2030. “Our vision is not just about increasing trade volumes, but creating a trade system that benefits all nations equally, from the smallest island states to the largest economies,” she said. “Trade and investment at the heart of Commonwealth renewal” Another prominent theme at the summit was the push for sustainable development and economic resilience. Speakers discussed the importance of infrastructure development, the digital economy, and inclusive growth as key drivers of future prosperity. Stephen Harris, Operations Director at Gapuma, noted that such initiatives must be underpinned by meaningful partnerships. “At Gapuma, we are committed to engaging with forward-thinking initiatives that support the growth of infrastructure and innovation in the Commonwealth,” he remarked. “It is through these partnerships that we will see lasting, transformative change.” Among the distinguished attendees were Adesuwa Ladoja, Managing Director and CEO of Lagos Free Zone, who highlighted the zone’s potential as a major economic driver for West Africa, and Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, who discussed the need for greater collaboration between the WTO and Commonwealth nations to foster a fair and open trading system. The summit was not only a reflection on the Commonwealth’s trade future, but also a moment to reconsider its broader role in global affairs. In the context of rising protectionism, the Commonwealth has an opportunity to redefine its place in the world, as well as access to the ‘Global South’. With ongoing discussions centred on economic cooperation and mutual growth, the summit has the potential to solidify the Commonwealth’s standing as a global champion of multilateralism. If the momentum continues, it could indeed mark the beginning of a new, more purposeful chapter for the organisation.