🛢️ GAPUMA GROUP | MARKET INTELLIGENCE | 20 MAY 2026
Hormuz, Beijing and Moscow: The Geopolitics of Oil Are Being Rewritten in Real Time The movement of two Chinese supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz today – the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, carrying approximately 4 million barrels of crude after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months – has sent an immediate and unmistakeable signal to commodity markets. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news. This is not merely a shipping story. It is a geopolitical statement. The vessels’ passage comes as President Trump and President Xi concluded a two-day summit in Beijing, with a White House official describing the talks as “good.” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China would work behind the scenes to help reopen the strait, noting that Beijing has “a much bigger interest in reopening the strait than the US does.” Beijing, characteristically, said nothing publicly about Hormuz – Chinese state media reported only that the leaders “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation.” Silence, in diplomacy, is often the loudest language. Iran has reportedly sought to implement a toll system for vessels crossing Hormuz – a brazen assertion of sovereign authority over an international waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. That Chinese-flagged supertankers are now moving freely while broader restrictions remain in place is a pointed reminder of where true leverage lies. Meanwhile, closer to home, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorised the import of Russian-refined diesel and jet fuel into the UK indefinitely, alongside a temporary licence permitting the maritime transport of Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal terminals. The government frames it as pragmatism. Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson told Sky News the government was “acting pragmatically to insulate British citizens from the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.” Critics – not least opposition leader Kemi Badenoch – see it differently: as analysts have noted, from Moscow’s perspective, it demonstrates that Western countries are “not that committed to a sanctions regime” when their own consumers feel the pinch. The broader picture is stark. Global oil supply has declined by 12.8 mb/d in total since February, with output from Gulf countries affected by the Strait’s closure running 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. The IEA projects a decline of 3.9 mb/d on average across 2026, assuming flows gradually resume from June. The United Nations has already cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% this year, against an estimated 3% last year, citing higher energy costs and weaker trade. For commodities and futures desks, the key questions now are whether today’s tanker movements represent a genuine reopening or a bilateral Chinese carve-out – and whether the gap between the two matters less than markets think. Wood Mackenzie has estimated Brent could approach $200 a barrel if the Strait remains largely shut until the end of the year. The downside scenario, by contrast, assumes a rapid diplomatic resolution that supply chains are ill-prepared to absorb smoothly. At Gapuma Group, we are watching these developments closely across energy, commodities and futures markets. The rules of the game are changing – and the players setting them are not all where they used to be. For market intelligence, trading insights and strategic analysis, connect with the Gapuma Group team.
From Ironman to ‘Aidan’s Wall’ – How a personal challenge became a community legacy
18 May 2026 By Russell Brill Just under a year ago, I stood at the start line of Ironman Hamburg. A personal challenge – or so I thought. What followed was something I hadn’t quite anticipated. The generosity of so many people transformed what began as a gruelling test of endurance into something with real, lasting impact. The funds raised went towards outdoor climbing equipment at Oak View School* – my son Aidan’s school. And I’m delighted to say the project is now complete (* Oak View School is a Special Needs School). The result? A brand new climbing wall – dubbed ‘Aidan’s Wall’ – plus additional equipment that has created an engaging, challenging outdoor space for the children. It looks fantastic. More importantly, it will give kids a place to build confidence, push their limits and, above all, have fun. To everyone who supported, donated and cheered from the sidelines – thank you. You didn’t just help me cross a finish line. You helped build something that will last. In humble gratitude.
The Emperor Comes to Beijing — Without His Clothes
14 May 2026 By: Shahab MOSSAVAT When Donald Trump first touched down in Beijing in November 2017, Xi Jinping laid on the full theatre of imperial hospitality: a private dinner in the Forbidden City, a parade through Tiananmen Square, and the announcement of $250 billion in business deals – a figure so grand it dwarfed the entire annual GDP of West Virginia, where one of its headline memoranda of understanding was supposedly centred. Almost none of it materialised. The symbolism, however, was exquisitely chosen. China was telling the world – and telling Trump – who was truly in charge. Nine years on, the pageantry at Beijing Capital International Airport on Wednesday – the honour guard, the schoolchildren chanting in Mandarin, the skyscrapers lit with welcoming characters – carried an almost identical message, delivered with rather more pointed subtlety. Air Force One landed, and a US president who had spent his first term threatening to break China, and his second term actually trying to, stepped onto a red carpet laid by a nation that had absorbed his blows, weaponised its advantages in response, and emerged from the encounter structurally stronger. Donald Trump is greeted at Beijing airport by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng The shift in the bilateral power dynamic is not subtle. It is measurable, documented and, for Washington, deeply uncomfortable. When Trump arrived in 2017, the United States still held most of the conventional cards: it was the world’s pre-eminent consumer market, the anchor of the dollar-denominated global financial system, and the unchallenged custodian of the rules-based international order. China was formidable but still, in important respects, dependent – on American technology, American markets and American acquiescence. Trump’s instinct, brutal in its simplicity, was to exploit that dependency through tariffs. What he did not foresee was that a decade of patient strategic investment had quietly altered the underlying geometry. Consider the arithmetic of the current summit. Trump arrives in Beijing wanting concessions: market entry for American companies, Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft and US soybeans, a softening of rare earth export restrictions that brought his own industrial economy to the edge of a supply crisis. Xi, by contrast, wants stability – time to consolidate a technological and industrial position that has already, by most independent assessments, reached escape velocity. The asymmetry is telling. One leader is shopping for wins to take home to voters ahead of bruising midterm elections. The other is managing a civilisational project measured in decades. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, put it with characteristic precision in CNBC on the day the summit opened: “China comes into this meeting far more confident than in 2017, when it feared even a small rise in US tariffs. In the last year, Xi has been able to push back and neutralise much of Trump’s actions.” 2017 v 2026: Change in Body Language? Central to China’s structural advantage is its commanding position in the global shipping and logistics system – a dominance so comprehensive that it shapes the price of practically everything that moves by sea. By mid-2024, China had invested in ports in 16 of the top 20 nations for shipping connectivity. Roughly 27 per cent of global container trade now passes through terminals partly or wholly owned by Chinese or Hong Kong-based companies. In 2024 alone, China’s largest state-owned shipbuilder produced more commercial tonnage than the entire United States shipbuilding industry has delivered since the Second World War. Shanghai handled 51.5 million TEUs in 2024, making it the world’s busiest port – five times the throughput of Los Angeles and Long Beach combined. When China flexes its position in containerised freight, it is not merely adjusting a commercial variable. It is moving a lever that governs global commodity pricing across industries from automotive parts to pharmaceuticals, from agricultural produce to consumer electronics. The United States, which conducts the overwhelming majority of its trade by sea, sits downstream of that lever. Underpinning this logistical supremacy is a strategic energy architecture that took shape long before Trump’s tariff wars began. China’s early and consistent investment in Iranian crude – formalised in the 25-year, $400 billion cooperation agreement whose foundations Xi Jinping himself proposed during a 2016 visit to Tehran – secured access to oil trading at an $8–10 discount per barrel below global benchmarks. While Western economies lurched from one energy shock to the next, buffeted by sanctions regimes and geopolitical crises they themselves often authored, Beijing was buying Iranian crude at predictable, heavily discounted rates through independent refiners insulated from direct sanction exposure. More broadly, Xi’s decade-long programme of energy self-sufficiency – wind, solar, hydropower, domestic drilling and diversified import partnerships – has positioned China to weather disruptions that send other economies into crisis. The current US-Israel war against Iran, which has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and sent global energy prices spiralling, is a case in point. China’s energy fortress, as analysts at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy have noted, appears to be passing its sternest test. That cannot be said of the United States. Yangshan: The world’s busiest container port handling more than 50 million TEUs annually The technological transformation is perhaps the most significant shift of all. China is no longer, in any meaningful sense, the cheap-labour assembly floor of the global economy. Its “Made in China 2025” industrial strategy has delivered on its core promises with a thoroughness that has alarmed Western analysts. China now leads the world in industrial robotics installations, dominates the clean technology supply chain from lithium batteries to solar panels, and – with DeepSeek’s R1 model launching in early 2025 to international astonishment – has demonstrated serious, applied artificial intelligence capability that challenges American primacy in what was supposed to be a US-led domain. In rare earths, which sit at the chokepoint of every advanced technology from fighter jets to electric vehicles to AI semiconductors, Beijing controls 85–90 per cent of […]
GLB Building Lubricants Partnerships at WAAS 2026
14 May 2026 This week, Thompson Longe, Akash Suhanda, led by Prakash Ramchandani – Managing Director of GLB Chemical Services Limited, Gapuma’s Nigerian subsidiary – attended the 2026 West Africa Automotive Show (WAAS), a three-day exhibition held in Lagos. Africa’s largest automotive aftermarket trade show, WAAS is organised by BtoB Events and held at the Landmark Centre. More than 350 exhibitors took part, with over 6,000 visitors expected from across West Africa. The show brought together importers, distributors and manufacturers showcasing products across auto parts, lubricants, tyres, batteries, heavy machinery, and mobility solutions. It has evolved into a strategic business platform for the region’s automotive sector, with networking opportunities described as unique – distributors, importers and suppliers all under one roof. Our team used the occasion to meet both overseas and local lubricants manufacturers, advancing conversations around Chevron Oronite and Chevron Base Oil business and strengthening existing relationships. Attendees included pre-vetted importers and distributors from across the region, spanning Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Senegal, Cameroon and beyond. Topics on the table included opportunities in local manufacturing, spare parts distribution, lubricants and mobility solutions across West Africa. A conference running alongside the exhibition featured over 50 experts sharing insights on technology, policy and strategy. Nigeria remains a market of enormous significance. It is Africa’s largest importer of automotive spare parts, bringing in over $5 billion each year. Events like WAAS are where relationships are built and business gets done. Great to be part of it. 🤝
Gapuma Returns to Coatings For Africa 2026
6th May 2026 Hot on the heels of our success at Coatings For Africa 2025, Gapuma will once again be exhibiting at the Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg, from 24-26 June 2026. Leading the delegation will be Group Managing Director Jack Baradjkian, alongside Henry Greef, Gary Hayes, Dave Steward and colleagues from our South Africa office. Want to guarantee time with the team? Contact Ash in advance to secure your slot: ash@gapuma.com 📍 Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg 📅 24-26 June 2026 We look forward to connecting, catching up and showing you what we’ve been working on.
Gapuma’s Raj Thakkar heads to Cologne for Chemspec Europe
5th May 2026 Gapuma Group’s Raj Thakkar will be at Chemspec Europe 2026 at Koelnmesse, Cologne, on 6-7 May – one of the chemical industry’s most valuable annual gatherings. The event serves as a cross-sector sourcing hub for fine and speciality chemicals, bringing together producers, buyers, and technical experts from across pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, speciality materials, coatings, personal care, electronics, energy, and many other industries. With over 400 global suppliers on the exhibition floor, it is precisely the kind of concentrated, high-quality environment where meaningful business relationships are forged, and supply chains are sharpened. During his visit, Raj will be strengthening ties with Gapuma’s existing partners whilst exploring new supplier opportunities – the twin pillars of any serious procurement strategy. Face-to-face engagement remains as valuable as ever in a sector navigating one of the fastest-changing markets the industry has known. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Raj at Chemspec or simply open a conversation about what Gapuma can offer, contact him directly at raj@gapuma.com.
Gapuma Group Acquires Equity Stake in Servaco PPS, Ghana’s Leading Industrial and Mining Supply Company
PRESS STATEMENT: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 1 May 2026 Gapuma Group, the London-based multinational commodities company serving customers through its warehousing and distribution network, today announces the acquisition of an equity stake in Servaco PPS Limited (SPPS), one of West Africa’s foremost industrial and mining supply companies. Founder Rudolph Opata Matey retains his stake and continues as Managing Director. The partnership represents Gapuma’s most significant strategic investment to date on the African continent, and marks a new chapter in the Group’s long-standing commitment to building durable, operational businesses across emerging markets. Servaco PPS – headquartered in Tema, Ghana – was founded in 1998 and has grown over more than two decades into the region’s most comprehensive industrial supply and services company. Operating across Ghana, Sierra Leone and Burkina Faso, it serves the mining, quarrying, construction, oil and gas, marine, power, water and telecoms sectors, supplying products from over 30 of the world’s leading industrial brands. Its subsidiary, Servmet Technical Services, provides specialist equipment repair, refurbishment and engineering services, including a newly inaugurated engineering workshop in Ghana. Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director of Gapuma, said: “SPPS has built something genuinely impressive – a business with real roots, real clients and a reputation earned through consistent delivery in one of Africa’s most demanding industrial environments. Our role is not to change what works, but to give Rudolph and his team the operational backbone and supply chain infrastructure to execute at a higher level. This is exactly the kind of partnership we have been looking for in West Africa.” Rudolph Opata Matey, Managing Director of Servaco PPS, said: “This partnership enables SPPS to deliver even greater value to our customers while building a stronger, more sustainable business. Gapuma’s operational expertise complements our deep knowledge of Ghana’s industrial and mining sectors. Together, we are better positioned to meet the evolving needs of our customers and create opportunities for our team.” The investment will strengthen SPPS’s working capital base, enhance its procurement and supply chain capabilities, and support further expansion across Ghana and West Africa. Gapuma brings to the partnership its global sourcing network – spanning more than 50 countries – and its established expertise in procurement, logistics and supplier development across Africa, Asia and Europe. Current management and staff remain fully in place. Day-to-day operations continue under the same leadership, with planned growth in technical and commercial capabilities to follow. About Gapuma Group Founded in London in 1999, Gapuma Group is an award-winning sourcing, procurement and logistics specialist with global reach. The Group sources products from more than 30 countries and delivers to over 50 countries worldwide, with particular depth of experience across Africa. Operating from its London headquarters, Gapuma serves clients across multiple sectors – including industrial, chemical, agricultural and energy – managing every link in the global supply chain from procurement and finance to logistics and final delivery. www.gapuma.com About Servaco PPS Limited Servaco PPS Limited is a leading Ghanaian provider of industrial products, technical services and supply chain solutions, serving the mining, quarrying, construction, oil and gas, marine, power, water and telecoms sectors across West Africa. Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Tema, Ghana, the company operates through strategic hubs in Ghana, Sierra Leone and Burkina Faso, and supplies products from more than 30 of the world’s leading industrial brands. Its subsidiary, Servmet Technical Services, delivers specialist engineering and equipment services to major mining and industrial clients across the region. www.servaco.com.gh
Celebrating 27 Years of Excellence: The Gapuma Anniversary Milestone 🥂
26th April 2026 Huge congratulations to Jack Bardakjian and the entire global team at Gapuma Group Limited as we proudly celebrate our 27th Anniversary! Reaching this significant milestone is a testament to our resilience, vision, and the collective dedication of our incredible team. Over nearly three decades, Gapuma has evolved into a dynamic and forward-thinking organization. We pride ourselves on being an agile force in the industry—continually growing and innovating to stay ahead of the curve. Even amidst ever-changing economic landscapes and global challenges, our commitment to “keeping up with the times” ensures we remain a reliable partner in a fast-paced world. Our Success is Your Success This journey would not be possible without the unwavering support of our esteemed, loyal clients and trusted suppliers. Your partnership is the foundation of our longevity, and we are extremely grateful for the continued trust you place in us. Going Above & Beyond 🚀 At Gapuma, our philosophy remains unchanged: we strive to “Go Above & Beyond” in everything we do. Whether it’s navigating complex logistics or fostering global relationships, we are committed to delivering excellence without compromise. Here’s to the next chapter of growth, innovation, and shared success!
Final day of ChinaPlas 2026 in Shanghai — and what an exceptional week it’s been
24 April 2026 A hugely successful event for Gapuma Group Limited. Our team has made extensive new connections, strengthened existing relationships, and laid the foundations for long-term partnerships across the global plastics and rubber industry. Just as importantly, we’ve seen first-hand the innovation, expertise, and forward thinking shaping the future of our sector — a powerful reminder of the pace and potential of this market. Thank you to everyone who took the time to meet with Russell Brill, Mihael Nahmias and Kishor Ubrani (Gapuma, Ghana). We look forward to continuing the conversations.