Did you know you can trade lean hogs on the stock market? 🐷
25 February 2026 No, really. Alongside live cattle, oats, frozen orange juice and cocoa futures, lean hog contracts are genuinely traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – in lots of 40,000 pounds, no less. We’re not making this up. It turns out the world of commodity trading goes way beyond the gold bars and oil barrels most people picture. Here are five “exotic” soft commodities that serious traders are watching right now: ☕ Coffee – A billion daily drinkers means relentless demand. But Brazilian soil moisture levels, Vietnamese harvest delays and tropical storms all move the price. Your morning flat white is a geopolitical event. 🍫 Cocoa – In 2024, Côte d’Ivoire cut its export contracts by 40% due to poor weather. Ghana fared little better. Two countries produce half the world’s supply — so when West Africa sneezes, the chocolate market catches a cold. 🌾 Oats – Grown across the EU, Russia, Canada and Australia, oats are more globally distributed than most soft commodities. But here’s the twist: disruption in one grain market tends to ripple across all grains, because they share the same growing regions, transport networks and storage systems. 🥩 Lean hogs and live cattle – Alternative proteins are getting all the headlines. Meanwhile, global meat consumption keeps rising. Livestock futures are a quiet corner of the market that demographic trends suggest won’t stay quiet for long. 🍊 Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) – Yes, it has its own futures market. In 2024, it hit all-time highs after disease-carrying sap-sucking insects devastated crops in Brazil (which produces nearly 70% of the world’s OJ) and a series of hurricanes compounded the damage in Florida. Extraordinary volatility in the most ordinary of breakfast staples. The common thread? These markets are driven by weather, disease, geography and human appetite — not by central bank policy or tech earnings cycles. For traders and commodity professionals who understand the supply side, that’s a very different — and potentially very interesting — kind of opportunity. Over to you. At Gapuma Group, we’re always curious about the commodity experiences that don’t make the standard textbooks. Have you ever dealt in something genuinely unusual — whether that’s a niche agricultural product, a regional soft commodity, or something else entirely that raised eyebrows at the trading desk?
US Tariff Uncertainty: The enemy of business isn’t the tariff. It’s the chaos surrounding it
24 February 2026 When the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of emergency powers under IEEPA to impose sweeping global tariffs, markets briefly exhaled. That relief lasted roughly 24 hours. Within a day, the administration had invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act – a statute never previously used – to reimpose a 15% universal tariff rate. The EU, which had recently concluded what it believed was a settled trade agreement with Washington, was blunt in its response: “A deal is a deal.” It was also, apparently, an optimistic assumption. This is the central problem. Tariffs, as a tool of economic policy, are not inherently lethal to global trade. They raise costs, they distort supply chains, they disproportionately burden weaker economies – applying identical flat rates to Bangladesh and Germany is not a neutral act – but businesses can adapt to a fixed landscape. They reprice, they reroute, they renegotiate. What they cannot do is build rational strategy on shifting sand. Fitch Ratings has noted that despite any temporary respite, US corporates continue to face renewed uncertainty, with supply chain and margin planning effectively on hold. Reuters similarly observed that the Supreme Court ruling, whilst constraining presidential power, has not resolved the fundamental instability facing trading partners. The irony is that judicial intervention – designed as a corrective – has, at least in the short term, amplified the turbulence rather than contained it. Every legal challenge resets the clock without resetting the uncertainty. At Gapuma Group, we work across markets where predictability underpins investment decisions. What we are watching now is not the tariff level. It is the governance of trade policy itself – and that, at present, offers little comfort.
GREEN STEEL: SUBSTANCE OR SIGNAL?
19 Ferbuary 2026 By: Shahab Mossavat The steel industry accounts for roughly 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If we are serious about decarbonisation, it has to change. But is the emerging green steel market a genuine structural shift, or an expensive exercise in corporate optics? The numbers, right now, suggest something uncomfortably in between. 7% of Global Carbon Emission are Produced by Steel Makers Europe has what passes for an established green steel market — and it is struggling. Traded volumes for flat-rolled green steel remained below 200,000 tonnes throughout 2025, which is vanishingly small against a European market that consumes some 140 million tonnes annually. Fastmarkets’ green steel premium (for product below 0.8 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel) has declined since the start of the year, and sources in the market describe buying as almost entirely project-based — nobody, as one Northern European buyer put it, buys green steel “back-to-back.” The spot market has been virtually non-existent since the start of 2026. That is not a market. That is a pilot programme with a premium attached. Part of the problem is definitional chaos. There is no common standard for what “green steel” even means, and buyers in some regions reportedly have no clear idea what they need. When the foundational vocabulary is contested, credibility suffers — and with it, the willingness to pay. The reduced-carbon tier (1.4–1.8 tCO₂ per tonne) saw its premium fall 50% in just three months to a meagre €25 per tonne, suggesting that when the environmental story becomes incremental rather than transformational, buyers simply revert to price. And yet dismissing green steel entirely would be equally wrong. The structural forces pushing towards it are real and are gathering pace. The EU’s Emissions Trading System is progressively withdrawing free allowances from blast furnace producers, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, now entering its definitive phase, will impose equivalent carbon costs on imported steel. Analysis by CRU suggests that by 2032, the CBAM charge will have risen sufficiently to theoretically return profit-maximising output for EU mills to pre-ETS levels — meaning the economics of green production will tighten around conventional steelmaking from both ends. ArcelorMittal’s confirmation of a €1.3 billion electric arc furnace in Dunkirk, citing EU policy confidence, is a signal worth noting even if the investment was scaled back from its original ambition. EU is Withdrawing Incentive Schemes The forecasts point towards rising hot-rolled coil prices across all production routes to 2035, with the green premium narrowing but persisting — from roughly 23% today to around 8% by 2035 as EAF capacity expands and legacy blast furnace costs compound under regulation. The trading angle For those of us who remember steel as a traded commodity, there is a further wrinkle. Physical steel trading has largely disintermediated over the past decade; end-users go direct to mills, and the role of the merchant has contracted sharply. Green steel, paradoxically, may be reopening a gap. Because green steel is niche, project-specific, and negotiated on terms that vary considerably between transactions, the information asymmetries that once justified intermediaries are back. Mills producing green product need buyers who understand what they are actually purchasing. Buyers with Scope 3 obligations need supply that is verifiable and documented. That is not a spot market. That is a relationship market — and relationship markets have historically rewarded those who understand both sides of the transaction. Green Steel Sheets and Cold Rolls Whether that translates into a commercial opportunity depends on how quickly mandated demand — through green public procurement under the EU’s forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act — moves from political intention to contracted reality. One mill source was blunt: large-scale demand for green steel can only be stimulated through public projects. Without that, it remains a niche. The honest verdict is this: green steel is not yet efficient as an environmental instrument, because its scale is too small to move the emissions needle. But the regulatory architecture being constructed around it is serious, and the cost convergence is real and mathematically predictable. The performative phase — buying a few thousand tonnes to put in the sustainability report — is giving way, slowly, to something more structural. The question for commodity-focused businesses is not whether green steel matters. It is whether they are positioned to participate when it does. Gapuma Group monitors developments across physical commodity markets. We welcome discussion from producers, buyers, and investors navigating the energy transition.
RAN, OIL AND THE ART OF THE CONVENIENT CRISIS
19 February 2026 Brent crude pushed above $71.50 yesterday. WTI broke $66. A 4% surge in a single session, with more to follow in early European trading. The headlines wrote themselves: US-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz fears, military build-up in the Persian Gulf. All of that is real. But is geopolitical risk genuinely driving this spike, or is it doing the market a useful favour — providing cover for something more structurally inconvenient? Here is the problem the oil market does not particularly want to discuss. The IEA’s implied surplus for 2026 has ballooned to nearly 4 million barrels per day – driven by OPEC+ unwinding its production cuts and relentless output growth from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Global demand growth is forecast at just 930,000 barrels per day – tepid, weighed down by EV adoption, improving vehicle efficiency and anaemic economic conditions. On paper, this is one of the most oversupplied markets in recent memory. And yet here we are, with Brent at six-month highs. Iranian exports run at roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. Total flows through the Strait of Hormuz reach around 20 million barrels per day. A full-scale disruption would be seismic, potentially erasing the entire surplus at a stroke. The Iran risk is not imaginary. But what it conveniently masks is that the physical market is already tighter than balance sheets suggest – sanctioned oil finding fewer willing buyers, Indian refiners shunning Russian barrels, and the Brent forward curve sitting in backwardation well into 2028. That is not the shape of a market drowning in surplus. Geopolitical crises do not create oil market fundamentals. They temporarily obscure them. When the dust settles – as it eventually does – the surplus will still be there.
Global Growth Steady at 3% – So Why Is Britain Lagging Behind?
12 February 2026 The global economy is maintaining a resilient 3% growth trajectory in 2026, according to the ACCA Global Economic Outlook. Yet Britain’s economy tells a starkly different story. The EY ITEM Club’s Winter Forecast projects UK GDP growth of just 0.9% this year – one of the weakest performances in the G7. More concerning for those of us in physical commodities: business investment is forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2026, a sharp downgrade from November’s 0.8% growth prediction. The contrast is striking. Whilst the US leads G7 growth and emerging markets demonstrate surprising resilience despite unprecedented tariff disruptions, Britain splutters. GDP per capita grew by merely 1% in 2025 after zero growth in 2024 – hardly the transformation promised eighteen months ago. What’s holding the UK back? Persistent policy uncertainty, weak business confidence, and a construction sector in the doldrums despite ambitious housing targets. For commodity traders, the implications are clear: whilst global trade adapts to new realities and maintains momentum, UK domestic demand remains anaemic. The government’s fiscal tightening, frozen income tax thresholds, and employer National Insurance increases are weighing heavily on growth. Meanwhile, our global competitors press ahead. As EY notes, the Bank of England may deliver one final rate cut in April, but monetary policy alone cannot overcome these structural headwinds. For Gapuma Group and the wider commodities sector, the message is unambiguous: opportunity lies in global markets showing genuine dynamism, not in a UK economy stuck in low gear. The world economy is proving adaptable and resilient. Britain needs to match that energy – urgently.
He shoots: We Score: Gapuma Group Sets the Standard in Quality Management
10 February 2026 We’re delighted to announce that Gapuma Group has successfully passed its annual ISO 9001:2015 surveillance audit with zero non-conformities—a testament to our unwavering commitment to quality management excellence. ISO 9001 certification operates on a rigorous three-year cycle, with annual surveillance audits conducted to ensure organisations maintain the highest standards of quality management between recertification. This recent audit was performed by DNV Business Assurance, one of the world’s most authoritative and trusted certification bodies, whose independent assessment validates our continued compliance and operational excellence. This outstanding result is the culmination of a full year’s meticulous preparation led by our Quality & Office Manager, Ash Unadkat. Ash’s expertise, dedication, and exceptional attention to detail were instrumental in achieving this perfect score. The comprehensive quality of documentation, systems, and processes he presented to the auditor demonstrated a mastery of quality management that impressed DNV throughout the assessment. His strategic approach to preparation and flawless execution ensured that every aspect of our quality management system met—and exceeded—the rigorous standards required. The audit also highlighted the strength of our systems across all operational areas, with our Logistics and Trading divisions receiving outstanding feedback for their robust processes and thorough documentation. Special commendation also goes to Neha Sampat, Operations Manager, and Yanish Bhageerutty, Business Development Manager—who, despite having just returned from a productive trip to West Africa, left no question unanswered during his comprehensive presentation. Their depth of knowledge and professionalism impressed our auditors considerably. Maintaining ISO 9001 certification isn’t simply about meeting standards—it’s about embedding quality into every aspect of our operations, from procurement and logistics to customer service and continuous improvement. This success reinforces our position as a trusted partner in our industry. Finally a great vote of thanks to Stephen Harris, Operations Director, and every team member who contributed to this collective achievement. Your professionalism and commitment to excellence continue to set Gapuma Group apart.
Gapuma Group at Argus Global Base Oils 2026
5 February 2026 This week, Gapuma Group attended the Argus Global Base Oils Conference in London –a premier gathering of over 400 key decision-makers from across the international base oils and lubricants value chain. Group Managing Director Jack Bardakjian led our delegation, and was joined on Wednesday by the Senior Leadership Team from GLB Chemical Services Limited, our Nigerian subsidiary: Prakash Ramchandani (Managing Director), Thompson Longe (Technical Sales), and Akash Suhanda (Commercial Sales). The three-day conference brought together industry heavyweights including Chevron, Chevron Oronite, TotalEnergies, Lubrizol, Yunigreen, and Orlen Oil – providing invaluable face-to-face opportunities to strengthen partnerships, explore market trends, and align on our strategic vision for West Africa and beyond. These moments of direct collaboration – sharing insights, challenging assumptions, and building relationships – are what drive our continued growth in the base oils sector and reinforce our commitment to delivering exceptional value across our global markets. Building the future of base oils together.
🤝 Strengthening Our Nigeria Presence
3 February 2026 We were delighted to welcome our Senior Leadership Team from GLB Chemical Services Limited, Gapuma Group’s Nigerian subsidiary, to our London headquarters this week. Prakash Ramchandani (Managing Director), Thompson Longe (Technical Sales), and Akash Suhanda (Commercial Sales) are with us for four days of intensive strategy sessions and product training. On Tuesday, Jing Jing Lim from Chevron joined us for an in-depth product training session on Group 2 Base Oils, followed by strategic discussions on how we grow our distribution partnership in Nigeria; expanding our market penetration and delivering exceptional value to our customers across West Africa. These face-to-face sessions are invaluable; sharing insights, challenging assumptions, and aligning on our vision for the Nigerian market – that virtual meetings simply can’t replicate. During their visit the team will also attend the Argus Global Base Oils Conference; a gathering of more than key 400 decision-makers from across the international value chain shaping the future of base oils and lubricants. Great collaboration between our teams in London and Lagos – building the future of our Nigerian operations together.
Gapuma’s Shahab Mossavat Receives Freedom of the City of London
24 January 2026 We are delighted to report that Gapuma’s Communications Advisor, Shahab Mossavat, has recently received the Freedom of the City of London as a Freeman of the Worshipful Company of Tylers and Bricklayers – a tradition dating back to mediaeval times that continues to this day. Accompanied by family and friends at the ceremony, Shahab received warm congratulations from many quarters, including from our own Managing Director, Jack Bardakjian. This honour now entitles Shahab to progress to becoming a Liveryman of his Company, which will happen on 13th March. From there, the traditional path through the City of London’s ancient governance structure moves through several stages: Liverymen can become Common Councilmen, then Aldermen, then Sheriffs, and eventually – though the odds are vanishingly slim – Lord Mayor of the City of London. So whilst the ceremonial robes might have to wait, the theoretical path is there. Becoming a Freeman grants some wonderfully archaic privileges. Shahab can now legally drive sheep across London Bridge toll-free, though we suspect Transport for London might have views on this. He’s entitled to carry a drawn sword in the City and, should the worst happen, to be hanged with a silken rope rather than hemp. There’s also exemption from press-ganging into the Royal Navy, which would have been considerably more useful in the 18th century. Whilst these ancient liberties are largely ceremonial today, they’re a reminder of London’s rich history and the enduring traditions of the City’s livery companies, which continue to support education, charity, and their respective trades. Congratulations, Shahab.
TRUMP’S GREENLAND GAMBIT: RARE EARTHS OR GEOPOLITICAL THEATRE?
21 January 2026 President Trump’s year-long campaign to acquire Greenland has crystallised around a stark claim: America needs control to secure critical minerals vital for military and economic security. From a commodities trading perspective, this narrative demands scrutiny. The mineral case appears compelling at first glance. Greenland holds two of the world’s largest rare earth deposits, including heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium that are essential for missile guidance systems and jet engines. China controls up to 90% of rare earth processing capacity, making supply chain diversification strategically sound. Yet the economic reality is sobering. Greenland is relatively open to investment – the US could mine there now. Only one American entity has even applied for mining permits. The challenge isn’t access; it’s mining in an incredibly harsh environment. Mining sites are remote, largely unsettled, and face local opposition. More tellingly, established supply chains already exist in the US, Canada, Australia and Brazil – markets may simply not need Greenland’s minerals. Meanwhile, 85% of Greenlanders oppose becoming American, with party leaders across the political spectrum united in rejecting US advances. The real story? Trump’s “method” reveals a strategic intent to re-establish American dominance over the western hemisphere, dividing the world into three spheres of influence. China views this as proof the US-led order is in turmoil – creating opportunities Beijing welcomes. For ESG-conscious traders, Greenland exposes the tension between resource nationalism rhetoric and commercial reality. When acquisition costs exceed value creation, and geopolitical theatre overshadows economic fundamentals, markets should take note.
Is China Winning Because of Tariffs, Not Despite Them?
14th January 2026 China’s record $1.19 trillion trade surplus for 2025 poses an intriguing question: are tariffs inadvertently strengthening Beijing’s global position? Whilst Trump’s levies successfully reduced US-China trade, they’ve seemingly accelerated an unintended consequence: China’s pivot towards emerging markets. As weaker economies struggle with rising input costs and disrupted supply chains, China has expanded aggressively into Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America—regions where competitors lack its manufacturing scale and infrastructure depth. According to the Financial Times, China’s export machine has proved “remarkably resilient,” with green technology and AI products driving growth in new markets. The Economist notes that whilst other exporters face margin pressure from tariffs, China’s vast domestic production capacity allows it to absorb costs and undercut rivals who cannot. This creates a troubling dynamic: tariffs intended to level the playing field may actually consolidate China’s dominance. Smaller economies face a double burden—higher costs from tariffs whilst simultaneously losing market share to Chinese alternatives in third countries. Bloomberg data shows Chinese goods penetrating markets previously served by Southeast Asian manufacturers, as buyers seek the lowest prices amidst global inflation. The paradox is striking. Punitive measures meant to constrain China may be eliminating its mid-tier competition instead. With a weak yuan, overcapacity from its property crisis, and unmatched scale, China can weather storms that sink smaller vessels. The question for businesses isn’t whether to prepare for a China-dominated supply landscape—it’s whether current trade policies are accelerating rather than preventing it. Perhaps scale, not sanctions, determines who survives the tariff era.