Gapuma’s Raj Thakkar heads to Cologne for Chemspec Europe
5th May 2026 Gapuma Group’s Raj Thakkar will be at Chemspec Europe 2026 at Koelnmesse, Cologne, on 6-7 May – one of the chemical industry’s most valuable annual gatherings. The event serves as a cross-sector sourcing hub for fine and speciality chemicals, bringing together producers, buyers, and technical experts from across pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, speciality materials, coatings, personal care, electronics, energy, and many other industries. With over 400 global suppliers on the exhibition floor, it is precisely the kind of concentrated, high-quality environment where meaningful business relationships are forged, and supply chains are sharpened. During his visit, Raj will be strengthening ties with Gapuma’s existing partners whilst exploring new supplier opportunities – the twin pillars of any serious procurement strategy. Face-to-face engagement remains as valuable as ever in a sector navigating one of the fastest-changing markets the industry has known. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Raj at Chemspec or simply open a conversation about what Gapuma can offer, contact him directly at raj@gapuma.com.
Final day of ChinaPlas 2026 in Shanghai — and what an exceptional week it’s been
24 April 2026 A hugely successful event for Gapuma Group Limited. Our team has made extensive new connections, strengthened existing relationships, and laid the foundations for long-term partnerships across the global plastics and rubber industry. Just as importantly, we’ve seen first-hand the innovation, expertise, and forward thinking shaping the future of our sector — a powerful reminder of the pace and potential of this market. Thank you to everyone who took the time to meet with Russell Brill, Mihael Nahmias and Kishor Ubrani (Gapuma, Ghana). We look forward to continuing the conversations.
Gapuma at ChinaPlas 2026 – See You in Shanghai
16 April 2026 We are delighted to announce that Gapuma will be represented at ChinaPlas 2026 in Shanghai next week (21-24 April), where our Purchasing Director, Russell Brill, and Head of Polymers, Mihael Nahmias, will be in attendance. ChinaPlas is one of the most significant events in the global plastics and rubber industry calendar – a unique opportunity to connect with the brightest minds in the business, explore the latest innovations shaping our industry, and strengthen the relationships that drive it forward. For those of us who believe in the power of face-to-face dialogue, there is truly no substitute. Gapuma’s presence at events such as this reflects our enduring commitment to the industry we serve – a commitment to staying at the forefront of market developments, fostering long-term partnerships, and delivering the very best for our customers and suppliers across the globe. If you or your colleagues are also attending ChinaPlas this year, we would love to connect. Please do reach out to Russell or Mihael directly – we look forward to seeing you in Shanghai.
The 25-Year Gamble: Who Really Wins When Corporations Build the Roads?
Rates Waived, Questions Raised By: Shahab Mossavat 18 March 2026 A £4bn gigafactory. A 25-year business rates waiver. A council that says there is nothing to worry about. The announcement that Agratas – Tata Group’s battery business, building the UK’s biggest EV gigafactory near Bridgwater in Somerset – will fund £150m of local infrastructure improvements in lieu of paying business rates for a quarter of a century is being presented as a clean swap. Somerset Council borrows nothing. Agratas builds the roads. Everyone wins. But is it really that simple? The core question is one that economic development professionals should be asking far more loudly: does a single upfront corporate investment deliver better long-term value for a local economy than a sustained, predictable stream of tax revenue? And if the answer to that is genuinely uncertain – which it is – how can anyone responsibly sign off a 25-year calculation? Business rates, for all their much-criticised rigidity, are flexible in one crucial respect: they respond to revaluations. A thriving facility pays more as its rateable value rises. Rates revenue compounds with economic success. A fixed £150m infrastructure deal, agreed today, does not. Consider the variables that no one can reliably model over 25 years: inflation, interest rates, the pace of EV adoption, Tata Group’s strategic priorities, the shifting competitive landscape for battery manufacturing, the ongoing government review of the entire business rates system. The Transforming Business Rates interim report, published as recently as September 2025, acknowledged that the system itself is under fundamental redesign. Somerset is locking in a deal built on a framework that may look very different by 2030. Council leader Bill Revans says the deal eliminates a “small amount of risk” by removing the council’s exposure to interest rate movements on a loan. That is true, as far as it goes. But it substitutes one risk for several others: the risk that £150m of roads and training provision proves inadequate as the factory scales; the risk that Agratas’s needs evolve in ways Somerset’s infrastructure cannot accommodate; the risk – and this is the one rarely discussed openly – that a corporation’s priorities change. The Government’s own infrastructure analysis is instructive here. Large upfront costs deliver benefits that can take decades to materialise – and can just as easily fail to materialise at all. Japan spent trillions on prestige infrastructure and built bridges to nowhere. Spain constructed airports that saw no planes. The presence of steel and tarmac does not guarantee the economic activity that was supposed to justify it. None of this is to say the Agratas deal is wrong. A £4bn factory, up to 4,000 jobs, and an anchor role in the UK’s EV supply chain is a transformative prize for Somerset. The council may well have made the right call. But “the right call” and “a rigorously tested 25-year financial model” are not the same thing, and the distinction matters. As more corporations – often with the blessing of enterprise zone designations – look to substitute upfront infrastructure investment for ongoing tax obligations, local authorities need independent analytical frameworks to evaluate these deals properly. The asymmetry of information and negotiating power between a global conglomerate and a county council is considerable. The question we should all be asking is not whether Agratas is a good corporate citizen – by all accounts it is working hard to embed itself in the Somerset community. The question is structural: when a company writes the cheque for the roads it needs to operate, who is really getting the better end of the deal? Twenty-five years is a long time. It would be reassuring to know that someone has done the maths with genuine rigour – and published it.
Did you know you can trade lean hogs on the stock market? 🐷
25 February 2026 No, really. Alongside live cattle, oats, frozen orange juice and cocoa futures, lean hog contracts are genuinely traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – in lots of 40,000 pounds, no less. We’re not making this up. It turns out the world of commodity trading goes way beyond the gold bars and oil barrels most people picture. Here are five “exotic” soft commodities that serious traders are watching right now: ☕ Coffee – A billion daily drinkers means relentless demand. But Brazilian soil moisture levels, Vietnamese harvest delays and tropical storms all move the price. Your morning flat white is a geopolitical event. 🍫 Cocoa – In 2024, Côte d’Ivoire cut its export contracts by 40% due to poor weather. Ghana fared little better. Two countries produce half the world’s supply — so when West Africa sneezes, the chocolate market catches a cold. 🌾 Oats – Grown across the EU, Russia, Canada and Australia, oats are more globally distributed than most soft commodities. But here’s the twist: disruption in one grain market tends to ripple across all grains, because they share the same growing regions, transport networks and storage systems. 🥩 Lean hogs and live cattle – Alternative proteins are getting all the headlines. Meanwhile, global meat consumption keeps rising. Livestock futures are a quiet corner of the market that demographic trends suggest won’t stay quiet for long. 🍊 Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) – Yes, it has its own futures market. In 2024, it hit all-time highs after disease-carrying sap-sucking insects devastated crops in Brazil (which produces nearly 70% of the world’s OJ) and a series of hurricanes compounded the damage in Florida. Extraordinary volatility in the most ordinary of breakfast staples. The common thread? These markets are driven by weather, disease, geography and human appetite — not by central bank policy or tech earnings cycles. For traders and commodity professionals who understand the supply side, that’s a very different — and potentially very interesting — kind of opportunity. Over to you. At Gapuma Group, we’re always curious about the commodity experiences that don’t make the standard textbooks. Have you ever dealt in something genuinely unusual — whether that’s a niche agricultural product, a regional soft commodity, or something else entirely that raised eyebrows at the trading desk?
GREEN STEEL: SUBSTANCE OR SIGNAL?
19 Ferbuary 2026 By: Shahab Mossavat The steel industry accounts for roughly 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If we are serious about decarbonisation, it has to change. But is the emerging green steel market a genuine structural shift, or an expensive exercise in corporate optics? The numbers, right now, suggest something uncomfortably in between. 7% of Global Carbon Emission are Produced by Steel Makers Europe has what passes for an established green steel market — and it is struggling. Traded volumes for flat-rolled green steel remained below 200,000 tonnes throughout 2025, which is vanishingly small against a European market that consumes some 140 million tonnes annually. Fastmarkets’ green steel premium (for product below 0.8 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel) has declined since the start of the year, and sources in the market describe buying as almost entirely project-based — nobody, as one Northern European buyer put it, buys green steel “back-to-back.” The spot market has been virtually non-existent since the start of 2026. That is not a market. That is a pilot programme with a premium attached. Part of the problem is definitional chaos. There is no common standard for what “green steel” even means, and buyers in some regions reportedly have no clear idea what they need. When the foundational vocabulary is contested, credibility suffers — and with it, the willingness to pay. The reduced-carbon tier (1.4–1.8 tCO₂ per tonne) saw its premium fall 50% in just three months to a meagre €25 per tonne, suggesting that when the environmental story becomes incremental rather than transformational, buyers simply revert to price. And yet dismissing green steel entirely would be equally wrong. The structural forces pushing towards it are real and are gathering pace. The EU’s Emissions Trading System is progressively withdrawing free allowances from blast furnace producers, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, now entering its definitive phase, will impose equivalent carbon costs on imported steel. Analysis by CRU suggests that by 2032, the CBAM charge will have risen sufficiently to theoretically return profit-maximising output for EU mills to pre-ETS levels — meaning the economics of green production will tighten around conventional steelmaking from both ends. ArcelorMittal’s confirmation of a €1.3 billion electric arc furnace in Dunkirk, citing EU policy confidence, is a signal worth noting even if the investment was scaled back from its original ambition. EU is Withdrawing Incentive Schemes The forecasts point towards rising hot-rolled coil prices across all production routes to 2035, with the green premium narrowing but persisting — from roughly 23% today to around 8% by 2035 as EAF capacity expands and legacy blast furnace costs compound under regulation. The trading angle For those of us who remember steel as a traded commodity, there is a further wrinkle. Physical steel trading has largely disintermediated over the past decade; end-users go direct to mills, and the role of the merchant has contracted sharply. Green steel, paradoxically, may be reopening a gap. Because green steel is niche, project-specific, and negotiated on terms that vary considerably between transactions, the information asymmetries that once justified intermediaries are back. Mills producing green product need buyers who understand what they are actually purchasing. Buyers with Scope 3 obligations need supply that is verifiable and documented. That is not a spot market. That is a relationship market — and relationship markets have historically rewarded those who understand both sides of the transaction. Green Steel Sheets and Cold Rolls Whether that translates into a commercial opportunity depends on how quickly mandated demand — through green public procurement under the EU’s forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act — moves from political intention to contracted reality. One mill source was blunt: large-scale demand for green steel can only be stimulated through public projects. Without that, it remains a niche. The honest verdict is this: green steel is not yet efficient as an environmental instrument, because its scale is too small to move the emissions needle. But the regulatory architecture being constructed around it is serious, and the cost convergence is real and mathematically predictable. The performative phase — buying a few thousand tonnes to put in the sustainability report — is giving way, slowly, to something more structural. The question for commodity-focused businesses is not whether green steel matters. It is whether they are positioned to participate when it does. Gapuma Group monitors developments across physical commodity markets. We welcome discussion from producers, buyers, and investors navigating the energy transition.
RAN, OIL AND THE ART OF THE CONVENIENT CRISIS
19 February 2026 Brent crude pushed above $71.50 yesterday. WTI broke $66. A 4% surge in a single session, with more to follow in early European trading. The headlines wrote themselves: US-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz fears, military build-up in the Persian Gulf. All of that is real. But is geopolitical risk genuinely driving this spike, or is it doing the market a useful favour — providing cover for something more structurally inconvenient? Here is the problem the oil market does not particularly want to discuss. The IEA’s implied surplus for 2026 has ballooned to nearly 4 million barrels per day – driven by OPEC+ unwinding its production cuts and relentless output growth from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Global demand growth is forecast at just 930,000 barrels per day – tepid, weighed down by EV adoption, improving vehicle efficiency and anaemic economic conditions. On paper, this is one of the most oversupplied markets in recent memory. And yet here we are, with Brent at six-month highs. Iranian exports run at roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. Total flows through the Strait of Hormuz reach around 20 million barrels per day. A full-scale disruption would be seismic, potentially erasing the entire surplus at a stroke. The Iran risk is not imaginary. But what it conveniently masks is that the physical market is already tighter than balance sheets suggest – sanctioned oil finding fewer willing buyers, Indian refiners shunning Russian barrels, and the Brent forward curve sitting in backwardation well into 2028. That is not the shape of a market drowning in surplus. Geopolitical crises do not create oil market fundamentals. They temporarily obscure them. When the dust settles – as it eventually does – the surplus will still be there.
Global Growth Steady at 3% – So Why Is Britain Lagging Behind?
12 February 2026 The global economy is maintaining a resilient 3% growth trajectory in 2026, according to the ACCA Global Economic Outlook. Yet Britain’s economy tells a starkly different story. The EY ITEM Club’s Winter Forecast projects UK GDP growth of just 0.9% this year – one of the weakest performances in the G7. More concerning for those of us in physical commodities: business investment is forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2026, a sharp downgrade from November’s 0.8% growth prediction. The contrast is striking. Whilst the US leads G7 growth and emerging markets demonstrate surprising resilience despite unprecedented tariff disruptions, Britain splutters. GDP per capita grew by merely 1% in 2025 after zero growth in 2024 – hardly the transformation promised eighteen months ago. What’s holding the UK back? Persistent policy uncertainty, weak business confidence, and a construction sector in the doldrums despite ambitious housing targets. For commodity traders, the implications are clear: whilst global trade adapts to new realities and maintains momentum, UK domestic demand remains anaemic. The government’s fiscal tightening, frozen income tax thresholds, and employer National Insurance increases are weighing heavily on growth. Meanwhile, our global competitors press ahead. As EY notes, the Bank of England may deliver one final rate cut in April, but monetary policy alone cannot overcome these structural headwinds. For Gapuma Group and the wider commodities sector, the message is unambiguous: opportunity lies in global markets showing genuine dynamism, not in a UK economy stuck in low gear. The world economy is proving adaptable and resilient. Britain needs to match that energy – urgently.
Nvidia’s Earnings Calm AI-Bubble Jitters — But Contradictions in the AI Race Remain
21st November 2025 Nvidia’s latest quarterly results delivered a decisive message to global markets: demand for AI infrastructure is not only real but accelerating at pace. Strong data-centre revenues lifted technology indices and eased near-term concerns that the sector was tipping into bubble territory. Yet the optimism highlights a deeper contradiction within the trillion-dollar AI race. Companies are channelling unprecedented capital into compute, chips and cloud capacity, while uncertainty persists over where long-term value will ultimately be captured. Investors remain divided on who stands to benefit and whether structural bottlenecks — from supply-chain constraints and skills shortages to rising energy demand — will curb the very growth that markets are pricing in. For commodity markets, Nvidia’s performance is not merely a technology story. It underscores the physical foundations of AI. Sharp growth in demand for advanced chips is increasing pressure on raw-materials sourcing, logistics networks and energy infrastructure. Businesses treating AI as a purely digital revolution risk overlooking the material inputs that enable it. At Gapuma Group, our approach remains clear: assess AI-driven demand through a supply-chain lens, examine exposure to single-supplier chokepoints, and strengthen ethical, transparent sourcing as infrastructure investment intensifies. In short, participate in the opportunity whilst hedging the structural risks beneath it.
Nigeria’s Energy Transformation: Market Competition Drives Policy Shift
5th November 2025 Nigeria is signalling its willingness to sell state-owned refineries as the government seeks to stimulate competition in the downstream sector—marking a notable shift in the country’s broader energy strategy. The development follows President Tinubu’s approval of a 15% import duty on refined petroleum products, aimed at safeguarding recent multi-billion-dollar investments in domestic refining. The Dangote Refinery now reports production of more than 45 million litres of petrol and 25 million litres of diesel per day, surpassing Nigeria’s internal consumption requirements. A Strategic CrossroadsThe Nigerian National Petroleum Company’s four state-owned refineries—despite a combined capacity of 445,000 barrels per day—have processed virtually no crude for decades, even after billions were allocated for repairs. Key stakeholders, including the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association, are calling for full privatisation to enhance efficiency and reduce recurrent government expenditure. Critics argue that the state-owned facilities remain “a pure drain on the Nigerian economy”, stressing that private management would curb corruption, ensure accountability, and foster healthy competition with the Dangote operation. The Monopoly DebateFuel traders caution that, if mismanaged, the new tariff regime could stifle fuel imports and create a de facto refining monopoly—potentially exposing Nigeria to fresh rounds of fuel scarcity. Policymakers therefore face the delicate task of protecting domestic refiners while preserving competitive dynamics in the market. For Gapuma Group, which operates extensively across West Africa’s energy landscape, this policy shift highlights the scale and speed of transformation within Nigeria’s downstream sector—presenting both opportunities and complexities for regional fuel trading and logistics. The outcome of Nigeria’s privatisation debate will shape energy flows across West Africa for generations.