Global Growth Steady at 3% – So Why Is Britain Lagging Behind?

12 February 2026

The global economy is maintaining a resilient 3% growth trajectory in 2026, according to the ACCA Global Economic Outlook. Yet Britain’s economy tells a starkly different story.

The EY ITEM Club’s Winter Forecast projects UK GDP growth of just 0.9% this year – one of the weakest performances in the G7. More concerning for those of us in physical commodities: business investment is forecast to contract by 0.2% in 2026, a sharp downgrade from November’s 0.8% growth prediction.

The contrast is striking. Whilst the US leads G7 growth and emerging markets demonstrate surprising resilience despite unprecedented tariff disruptions, Britain splutters. GDP per capita grew by merely 1% in 2025 after zero growth in 2024 – hardly the transformation promised eighteen months ago.

What’s holding the UK back? Persistent policy uncertainty, weak business confidence, and a construction sector in the doldrums despite ambitious housing targets. For commodity traders, the implications are clear: whilst global trade adapts to new realities and maintains momentum, UK domestic demand remains anaemic.

The government’s fiscal tightening, frozen income tax thresholds, and employer National Insurance increases are weighing heavily on growth. Meanwhile, our global competitors press ahead. As EY notes, the Bank of England may deliver one final rate cut in April, but monetary policy alone cannot overcome these structural headwinds.

For Gapuma Group and the wider commodities sector, the message is unambiguous: opportunity lies in global markets showing genuine dynamism, not in a UK economy stuck in low gear.

The world economy is proving adaptable and resilient. Britain needs to match that energy – urgently.