GREEN STEEL: SUBSTANCE OR SIGNAL?

19 Ferbuary 2026

By: Shahab Mossavat

The steel industry accounts for roughly 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If we are serious about decarbonisation, it has to change. But is the emerging green steel market a genuine structural shift, or an expensive exercise in corporate optics? The numbers, right now, suggest something uncomfortably in between.

Europe has what passes for an established green steel market — and it is struggling. Traded volumes for flat-rolled green steel remained below 200,000 tonnes throughout 2025, which is vanishingly small against a European market that consumes some 140 million tonnes annually. Fastmarkets’ green steel premium (for product below 0.8 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel) has declined since the start of the year, and sources in the market describe buying as almost entirely project-based — nobody, as one Northern European buyer put it, buys green steel “back-to-back.” The spot market has been virtually non-existent since the start of 2026.

That is not a market. That is a pilot programme with a premium attached.

Part of the problem is definitional chaos. There is no common standard for what “green steel” even means, and buyers in some regions reportedly have no clear idea what they need. When the foundational vocabulary is contested, credibility suffers — and with it, the willingness to pay. The reduced-carbon tier (1.4–1.8 tCO₂ per tonne) saw its premium fall 50% in just three months to a meagre €25 per tonne, suggesting that when the environmental story becomes incremental rather than transformational, buyers simply revert to price.

And yet dismissing green steel entirely would be equally wrong.

The structural forces pushing towards it are real and are gathering pace. The EU’s Emissions Trading System is progressively withdrawing free allowances from blast furnace producers, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, now entering its definitive phase, will impose equivalent carbon costs on imported steel. Analysis by CRU suggests that by 2032, the CBAM charge will have risen sufficiently to theoretically return profit-maximising output for EU mills to pre-ETS levels — meaning the economics of green production will tighten around conventional steelmaking from both ends. ArcelorMittal’s confirmation of a €1.3 billion electric arc furnace in Dunkirk, citing EU policy confidence, is a signal worth noting even if the investment was scaled back from its original ambition.

The forecasts point towards rising hot-rolled coil prices across all production routes to 2035, with the green premium narrowing but persisting — from roughly 23% today to around 8% by 2035 as EAF capacity expands and legacy blast furnace costs compound under regulation.

The trading angle

For those of us who remember steel as a traded commodity, there is a further wrinkle. Physical steel trading has largely disintermediated over the past decade; end-users go direct to mills, and the role of the merchant has contracted sharply. Green steel, paradoxically, may be reopening a gap.

Because green steel is niche, project-specific, and negotiated on terms that vary considerably between transactions, the information asymmetries that once justified intermediaries are back. Mills producing green product need buyers who understand what they are actually purchasing. Buyers with Scope 3 obligations need supply that is verifiable and documented. That is not a spot market. That is a relationship market — and relationship markets have historically rewarded those who understand both sides of the transaction.

Whether that translates into a commercial opportunity depends on how quickly mandated demand — through green public procurement under the EU’s forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act — moves from political intention to contracted reality. One mill source was blunt: large-scale demand for green steel can only be stimulated through public projects. Without that, it remains a niche.

The honest verdict is this: green steel is not yet efficient as an environmental instrument, because its scale is too small to move the emissions needle. But the regulatory architecture being constructed around it is serious, and the cost convergence is real and mathematically predictable. The performative phase — buying a few thousand tonnes to put in the sustainability report — is giving way, slowly, to something more structural.

The question for commodity-focused businesses is not whether green steel matters. It is whether they are positioned to participate when it does.

Gapuma Group monitors developments across physical commodity markets. We welcome discussion from producers, buyers, and investors navigating the energy transition.