Biofuels, Policy, and the Changing Dynamics of Soybean Oil
Source: Reuters / USDA Report 16th July 2025 A quiet transformation is underway in the global soybean oil market — one shaped by tightening U.S. biofuel policy and surging domestic demand. According to the latest USDA figures, over half of all U.S. soybean oil will be consumed by domestic biofuel producers in 2025/26. Usage is forecast to reach an unprecedented 15.5 billion pounds — a year-on-year increase of more than 26%. In contrast, U.S. exports of soybean oil are expected to fall by nearly 75%. This shift reflects a confluence of regulatory and economic forces, including: ✅ Expanded blending mandates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency✅ Restrictions on renewable fuel imports and non-domestic feedstocks✅ Enhanced clean fuel tax credits and state-level incentives Together, these changes elevate the role of domestically sourced vegetable oils — particularly soybean and canola — as cornerstone feedstocks in the global energy mix. For stakeholders across the agri-commodities, biofuels, and renewables sectors, this signals a reshaping of priorities and pressures. Procurement strategies, trade flows, and refining capacity are all being recalibrated to meet the new demands of the clean energy transition. At Gapuma Group, we continue to track these developments closely. Understanding the interplay between global trade, energy security, and sustainability is central to our work — and to the future of responsible supply.
Gapuma: The Brand
15th July 2025 At Gapuma Group, we’re taking our visual identity to the next level — placing renewed emphasis on the Gapuma name and logo as enduring hallmarks of a trusted global brand. But how are we doing it? By starting where it matters most: with our people. Every member of the Gapuma team will soon receive a custom-designed, Gapuma-branded t-shirt — not just a piece of clothing, but a powerful symbol of identity and belonging. These aren’t uniforms; they’re statements. Our goal is clear: to build cohesion across continents and nurture a shared sense of pride through something tangible. Worn proudly, these t-shirts become walking expressions of our values and team spirit — visible from our offices to our logistics hubs, and everywhere in between. With a careful focus on design, material, and print quality, the Gapuma t-shirt is no ordinary branded item. It’s a wardrobe choice — one that reflects who we are: professional, modern, and united. For over 26 years, the Gapuma name has represented trust, resilience, and excellence. This initiative is a step forward in reinforcing that identity — deepening internal bonds among colleagues and strengthening our external visibility with clients and partners alike. And this is just the beginning. The first batch of t-shirts has been manufactured, despatched, and is now en route. Watch this space.
Join Gapuma at the 59th Annual EPCA Meeting in Berlin
11th July 2025 Gapuma South Africa is pleased to confirm that senior representatives — Gary Hayes, Henry Greeff, Dave Steward, and Carla Erasmus — will be attending the 59th Annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) Meeting in Berlin, taking place from 22 to 25 September 2025. In today’s challenging and fast-changing global environment, supply chains are under pressure, and the imperative for sustainable innovation has never been greater. At Gapuma, we are focused on creating agile, adaptive solutions that meet the realities of the market. Drawing on deep operational knowledge and on-the-ground experience across Southern and West Africa, our team is committed to building resilient supply networks and delivering market-led value. The EPCA Annual Meeting presents a key opportunity to engage with fellow industry leaders, exchange ideas, and explore strategies for navigating regulatory change, accelerating sustainability goals, and positioning our sector for long-term success. We warmly invite you to connect with us in Berlin to discuss opportunities for collaboration. Whether you’re looking to expand into African markets or seeking to transform global challenges into practical outcomes, we are ready to support your objectives with insight, integrity, and impact. To arrange a meeting with our team during the event, please get in touch via our contact page or reach out to us directly on LinkedIn.
Russia’s Wheat Ambitions Could Redraw the Map of European Grain Markets
10th July 2025 Russia is positioning itself with increasing clarity as the dominant force in global wheat exports, a development that is set to reverberate through European supply chains and pricing structures well into the 2025–26 season. In early July, leading agricultural consultancy SovEcon revised its wheat export forecast for Russia sharply upwards, from 40.8 to 42.9 million metric tonnes (mmt)—a significant year-on-year increase of over 5%. At a glance, the numbers speak to favourable agronomic conditions. SovEcon cited improved crop outlooks in Russia’s Central region, prompting a corresponding revision in the 2025 wheat production forecast to 83.0 mmt, up 2.0 mmt from June’s estimate. But beneath the surface lies a more consequential shift—one that ties together commodity strategy, currency dynamics, and geopolitical calculus. “Exporters will likely be able to lower FOB prices if needed while maintaining strong margins,” SovEcon reported, highlighting Russia’s flexibility in undercutting competitors without sacrificing profitability. That flexibility is now clearly visible in the market. In early July, new-crop Russian wheat was trading at $225–228/mt FOB, marginally cheaper than Bulgarian and Romanian offers of $230/mt. These seemingly narrow differentials carry disproportionate weight in the highly competitive and cost-sensitive grain trade of Eastern and Central Europe. Russia’s growing command of the wheat market is not simply a matter of good weather. A weaker ruble, low production costs, and a state-backed export apparatus are combining to give Moscow considerable leverage over regional grain flows. In the Black Sea basin—long a linchpin of European wheat distribution—this leverage is now setting the pace. But Russia will not go unchallenged. Both Romania and Bulgaria expect solid harvests, and Ukraine is repositioning itself to target new export markets amid evolving access constraints to EU buyers. With all three players expected to front-load supply early in the season, the result is likely to be sustained downward pressure on international prices. “Active wheat exports from the Black Sea region will weigh on global prices,” said SovEcon’s managing director Andrey Sizov. What is emerging is a more fragmented and fiercely contested marketplace, where competitive advantage will rest not only on output but also on logistical agility, political access, and pricing resilience. The Black Sea, once a shared export channel, is fast becoming a battleground for market share across Europe, the Middle East, and beyond. As Europe prepares for the 2025–26 wheat marketing season, the implications of this recalibrated export landscape are far-reaching. Procurement strategies, trade flows, and port utilisation patterns will all be shaped by Moscow’s next move—and the ability of neighbouring exporters to respond. At Gapuma, we continue to monitor these developments closely. The strategic realignment underway in the Black Sea wheat corridor demands rigorous attention, nuanced analysis, and a firm grasp of geopolitical risk—all essential in navigating Europe’s increasingly complex grain economy.
LNG Freight Market: Signs of Life, But Fundamentals Still Fragile
9th July The second quarter of 2025 brought a temporary lift in LNG freight rates, briefly rekindling hopes of a broader recovery. Spot market activity picked up, geopolitical tensions nudged rates upward, and a few well-timed tenders added to the movement. But beneath the surface, little has changed. The fundamentals remain weighed down by chronic oversupply and a steady stream of newbuild LNG carriers—more than fifty of which are still scheduled to hit the water this year. At Gapuma, we recognise the signs of a market still wrestling with structural imbalance. While Q2’s flurry may have offered tactical opportunities for agile players, it does not herald a true reversal. The market remains oversaturated, particularly as shorter voyage lengths in the Atlantic basin reduce tonne-mile demand, allowing vessels to cycle faster and re-enter the charter pool sooner. Meanwhile, the rate volatility we’ve seen—rising in late June, only to soften again weeks later—is more a reflection of fleet repositioning and risk premiums than renewed fundamentals. Still, there are positive signals to monitor. Asian demand continues its gradual climb, and Europe remains a dynamic outlet for flexible LNG volumes. Political flashpoints—especially in the Middle East and around key maritime chokepoints—can rapidly absorb spare tonnage and temporarily tighten supply. But these moments remain episodic and should not be confused with sustained recovery. What matters now is not the noise, but how we respond to it. Gapuma continues to prioritise discipline in cargo allocation, precision in market timing, and flexibility in freight strategy. As others chase the latest bump, we’re preparing for the long game—poised for when the market begins to rebalance in earnest.
Gapuma Group Proudly Supports Team Ichiban at the WUKF World Championships 🥋
8th July 2025 We’re immensely proud to support Team Ichiban as they head to Malmö, Sweden, to compete at the 13th WUKF World Championships as part of the Dokan England squad. After months of dedicated training, national competitions, and unwavering commitment, this talented group of karateka — from seasoned international athletes to promising first-timers — is ready to represent the very best of British karate on the global stage. The championships will take place at the renowned Malmö Arena, an iconic venue previously home to Eurovision, now set to host a week of elite martial arts, sportsmanship, and unforgettable memories. At Gapuma Group, we believe in backing excellence, discipline, and ambition — qualities that Team Ichiban embodies to the core. This marks the third World Championship we’ve proudly supported in just four years, a testament to our ongoing commitment to grassroots and elite sport alike. It’s been an honour to help make this journey possible, alongside our fellow sponsor, Indigo Car Hire. We wish the entire team strength, focus, and an unforgettable experience in Sweden. Win or lose, you’ve already made us proud. Let’s go, Team Ichiban!
BRICS and the Future of Global Trade: Pragmatism in a Fragmented World
7th July 2025 As the United States turns inward—amplified by the resurgence of Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda—the BRICS alliance is stepping up to redefine the global economic landscape. This week, BRICS leaders convened at the Museum of Contemporary Art in Rio de Janeiro, not only as a strategic precursor to COP30 in Belém this November, but as a rebuke to the global North’s growing retreat into nationalism, militarisation, and selective multilateralism. While the Western-led global order has relied on the dollar, legacy institutions like the IMF and WTO, and an increasingly rigid rules-based system, many nations across the Global South are now questioning the relevance of that framework. In its place, BRICS—now comprising eleven members and dozens of aligned partners—is presenting a more pluralistic, decentralised, and pragmatic vision of global engagement. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva captured the moment bluntly: “We have witnessed an unparalleled collapse of multilateralism… Hard-won advances, such as climate and trade regimes, are under threat.” Lula’s warning reflects a broader frustration. From energy access and food security to digital infrastructure and commodity flows, countries are seeking platforms that prioritise fairness over dominance, resilience over rigidity. BRICS initiatives like the New Development Bank, BRICS Pay, and plans for cross-border local currency settlements are not merely technical alternatives—they represent efforts to insulate member economies from external coercion and supply shocks. The Rio declaration touched on several themes: climate vulnerability, development finance, and global governance reform. Yet the language was calibrated—muted, even. Brazil, with COP30 on the horizon, seems cautious about triggering trade retaliation or diplomatic fractures. Analysts observed that while the bloc’s ambition is growing, its internal cohesion remains fragile. Xi Jinping’s unexpected absence from the summit and the continuing diplomatic ambiguity around Russia and Iran underscore this. Nevertheless, the economic gravity of BRICS is undeniable. The bloc now represents 40% of the world’s population and GDP, and more than half of global emissions. It has overtaken the G7 on several structural indicators and is increasingly seen by emerging markets as a platform for voice, not just volume. From Gapuma’s vantage point—deeply engaged in commodities, infrastructure, and cross-border supply chains—the emergence of a multipolar trade environment has tangible consequences. The shift away from dollar dominance, the push for regional value chains, and the rise of Southern-led development finance initiatives are already reshaping trade routes, risk profiles, and investment flows. As one analyst in São Paulo put it: “The question isn’t whether BRICS is perfect—it’s whether staying on the sidelines of its emerging architecture carries greater risk.” Still, challenges persist. Internal divisions, dependency on fossil fuels, and muted transparency within BRICS structures remain unresolved. But in an era dominated by conflict, sanctions, and climate breakdown, emerging economies increasingly see the bloc as a necessary counterweight—not to replace the global order, but to rebalance it. COP30 in Brazil may be the true test. Whether BRICS can turn rhetorical solidarity into collective action on climate finance, infrastructure, and inclusive governance will determine whether this is a genuine pivot in world affairs—or just another summit communiqué filed and forgotten.
From Golden Fields to Global Tables: Gapuma’s First Wheat Harvest in Serbia
3rd July 2025 It is harvest time in Serbia, and as sunlight glints off the golden fields of Vojvodina, Gapuma proudly marks a major milestone — our first wheat crop in the region. This inaugural harvest represents more than a successful growing season. It signals the expansion of our agricultural presence in Serbia and the beginning of a broader commitment to high-quality, sustainable food production. The wheat will be stored in our own advanced 22,000 metric tonne storage facility located in Žabalj, positioning us at the heart of Serbia’s most productive agricultural zone. Wheat is just the start. With soya and maize also under cultivation, our harvests will support a growing network of trusted partners across Europe and beyond. From seed to silo, Gapuma is dedicated to contributing to long-term food security, regional resilience, and responsible agri-trade. We are proud to be part of a new agricultural chapter in Serbia — one rooted in quality, innovation, and a shared vision for nourishing communities across borders.
Investing in Future Leaders: An Intern’s Journey at Gapuma
2nd July 2025 At Gapuma, we believe that investing in young talent is not only part of our long-term vision, but also a core pillar of our Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) commitment. Over the years, we’ve been proud to host a growing number of bright, driven interns who gain hands-on experience across our global operations. One such intern is Phume Mazibuko, currently completing a seven-week internship at our London head office. With four weeks behind her, Phume has already made an impact and gained invaluable insight into international trade, procurement, and logistics. Here’s Phume’s account in her own words: “With four weeks completed and only three more weeks to go, I have already gained an extensive amount of knowledge while being at Gapuma. I have worked with both the Procurement and Logistics departments, splitting my time equally between the two. In procurement, I was responsible for carrying through enquiries. I was tasked with researching chemical suppliers and contacting the requisite suppliers based on client specifications. This task improved my communication and problem-solving skills. Furthermore, the procurement team ensured that I gained technical knowledge of the forward freight industry by learning Incoterms, organising Certificates of Analysis and more. Another key task was conducting a regional freight market check. This was significant for my understanding of market patterns and would provide both the Procurement and Logistics teams with up-to-date information, vital for drafting client quotes and planning agreements between clients and suppliers. While working with Logistics, I was required to update a Know Your Client Excel sheet and ensure that the relevant information is correctly and thoroughly logged for future reference when the team needs to carry through a shipment. This improved my attention to detail, my risk assessment skills, and my deeper understanding of company and industry standards. Through all of this, the team environments at Gapuma remained supportive and collaborative, and thus, I have been able to learn a great deal from my supervisors and colleagues when given regular and in-depth feedback on tasks. This experience has affirmed my interest in the transportation of bulk liquids but has especially opened me up to a world of freight forwarding and given me the confidence to pursue a role in this field. Although my experience is not yet over, I am grateful to have worked with such a dedicated and positive team, so I would highly recommend this internship to others interested in international trade.” We’re proud to play a small part in the journeys of emerging professionals like Phume — and we look forward to welcoming many more.
As NATO Meets in The Hague, Trump Feels Vindicated on 5%
25th June 2025 At this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, a once-dismissed proposition is gaining real traction: that member states should work towards allocating 5% of GDP to defence. What began as a controversial demand from Donald Trump — decried at the time as antagonistic and outlandish — is now being seriously discussed as a necessary strategic shift in an increasingly fragmented world order. The proposal, broken down into 3.5% for core defence and 1.5% for critical infrastructure and resilience, reflects the growing realisation that conventional deterrence, cyber-security, and supply chain security are no longer optional. They are essential to political and economic stability. As Trump often argued, NATO could not rely indefinitely on disproportionate American support. Today, many of his critics now echo the same logic — albeit through gritted teeth. Yet the story is not as simple as it first appears. Economic Implications and Commodities Impact From a market perspective, the macroeconomic effects of this shift are both vast and contradictory. On the one hand, a coordinated increase in defence budgets across NATO members would inject enormous stimulus into R&D, manufacturing, and logistics, particularly if procurement is channelled into domestic industries. For commodity-focused firms, including Gapuma, a surge in infrastructure and defence-linked investment may well create more predictable demand, greater state-backed contract certainty, and more stable long-term relationships. Critically, a better-funded defence-industrial base also strengthens the resilience of strategic supply chains, including those for energy, rare earth minerals, and base metals. In other words, defence spending can act as a structural support for the commodities sector, ensuring that supply chains remain operational even during geopolitical stress or disruption. However, not all the consequences are positive. As J.P. Morgan recently warned, heightened tensions or renewed conflict in the Middle East could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures already straining global economies. In a world of finite resources, increased defence and infrastructure demand may also exacerbate competition for commodities like lithium, cobalt, and copper — materials essential for both military and green technologies. This will likely drive up prices, fuel protectionism, and intensify environmental degradation as nations push harder into fragile ecosystems. Strategic Realignment or Strategic Drift? For the United States, a 5% commitment across NATO could provide the long-sought opportunity to rebalance towards the Indo-Pacific, while empowering European allies to shoulder more of their regional defence burden. But as Europe spends more, it may also demand more autonomy, and Washington’s status as prima inter pares within NATO may face growing challenges. The wider geopolitical effects remain uncertain. Greater defence spending may deter aggression — or provoke countermeasures. It may strengthen alliances — or expose fractures. Much will depend on execution, coordination, and whether 5% becomes more than just a headline figure. At Gapuma, we recognise that defence economics are increasingly central to global trade dynamics. The convergence of military preparedness and commercial resilience is not merely theoretical. It is a tangible and urgent challenge — and for forward-looking enterprises, also an opportunity.
Strengthening UK–Serbia Ties: Gapuma at the King’s Official Birthday Party in Belgrade
20th June 2025 On Thursday, Gapuma was honoured to attend the celebration of His Majesty King Charles III’s Official Birthday, hosted by His Excellency Edward Ferguson, British Ambassador to Serbia. Held in Belgrade, the event brought together a distinguished group of British businesses operating in Serbia, reflecting the strength of bilateral trade and diplomatic relations between the United Kingdom and Serbia. Gapuma was represented by Aron Mohaci, Managing Director of Gapuma Serbia, alongside other colleagues from the regional team. The event served as a valuable opportunity to engage with fellow UK-based companies, including AstraZeneca, British Motors, ARUP, Endava, Bechtel, G4S, ERG International Group, Chivas Regal, Tanqueray, Froneri, Harrisons, and Menzies Aviation. All were present to mark this formal occasion and reaffirm the shared values that underpin our work in the region. Our presence in Serbia Gapuma has established a long-standing and growing presence in Serbia, recognising the country’s role as a strategic economic and logistical gateway to Southeast Europe. Our operations support key sectors through the supply of critical raw materials and bespoke industrial solutions, helping to meet the demands of an increasingly dynamic local market. With Serbia’s advantageous geographical position and its ongoing economic reforms, the country is fast becoming a vital partner in regional industrial development. At Gapuma, we focus on fostering long-term relationships through the consistent delivery of high-quality services and materials that match local needs and global standards. Our commitment to collaboration The King’s Official Birthday Party was not only a celebration of a significant national occasion, but also a reminder of the importance of diplomacy, mutual respect, and commercial cooperation. Gapuma values the trust we have earned in Serbia through sustained engagement, investment, and responsiveness to market shifts. Our participation in this event underscores our ongoing commitment to playing a constructive role in Serbia’s economic progress. As our operations in the region continue to grow, we remain firmly focused on delivering value with integrity and on deepening our partnerships across sectors and borders. We extend our warm thanks to the British Embassy in Belgrade for its kind invitation and hospitality, and for its ongoing support of UK companies contributing to Serbia’s development.