BRICS and the Future of Global Trade: Pragmatism in a Fragmented World
7th July 2025 As the United States turns inward—amplified by the resurgence of Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda—the BRICS alliance is stepping up to redefine the global economic landscape. This week, BRICS leaders convened at the Museum of Contemporary Art in Rio de Janeiro, not only as a strategic precursor to COP30 in Belém this November, but as a rebuke to the global North’s growing retreat into nationalism, militarisation, and selective multilateralism. While the Western-led global order has relied on the dollar, legacy institutions like the IMF and WTO, and an increasingly rigid rules-based system, many nations across the Global South are now questioning the relevance of that framework. In its place, BRICS—now comprising eleven members and dozens of aligned partners—is presenting a more pluralistic, decentralised, and pragmatic vision of global engagement. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva captured the moment bluntly: “We have witnessed an unparalleled collapse of multilateralism… Hard-won advances, such as climate and trade regimes, are under threat.” Lula’s warning reflects a broader frustration. From energy access and food security to digital infrastructure and commodity flows, countries are seeking platforms that prioritise fairness over dominance, resilience over rigidity. BRICS initiatives like the New Development Bank, BRICS Pay, and plans for cross-border local currency settlements are not merely technical alternatives—they represent efforts to insulate member economies from external coercion and supply shocks. The Rio declaration touched on several themes: climate vulnerability, development finance, and global governance reform. Yet the language was calibrated—muted, even. Brazil, with COP30 on the horizon, seems cautious about triggering trade retaliation or diplomatic fractures. Analysts observed that while the bloc’s ambition is growing, its internal cohesion remains fragile. Xi Jinping’s unexpected absence from the summit and the continuing diplomatic ambiguity around Russia and Iran underscore this. Nevertheless, the economic gravity of BRICS is undeniable. The bloc now represents 40% of the world’s population and GDP, and more than half of global emissions. It has overtaken the G7 on several structural indicators and is increasingly seen by emerging markets as a platform for voice, not just volume. From Gapuma’s vantage point—deeply engaged in commodities, infrastructure, and cross-border supply chains—the emergence of a multipolar trade environment has tangible consequences. The shift away from dollar dominance, the push for regional value chains, and the rise of Southern-led development finance initiatives are already reshaping trade routes, risk profiles, and investment flows. As one analyst in São Paulo put it: “The question isn’t whether BRICS is perfect—it’s whether staying on the sidelines of its emerging architecture carries greater risk.” Still, challenges persist. Internal divisions, dependency on fossil fuels, and muted transparency within BRICS structures remain unresolved. But in an era dominated by conflict, sanctions, and climate breakdown, emerging economies increasingly see the bloc as a necessary counterweight—not to replace the global order, but to rebalance it. COP30 in Brazil may be the true test. Whether BRICS can turn rhetorical solidarity into collective action on climate finance, infrastructure, and inclusive governance will determine whether this is a genuine pivot in world affairs—or just another summit communiqué filed and forgotten.
From Golden Fields to Global Tables: Gapuma’s First Wheat Harvest in Serbia
3rd July 2025 It is harvest time in Serbia, and as sunlight glints off the golden fields of Vojvodina, Gapuma proudly marks a major milestone — our first wheat crop in the region. This inaugural harvest represents more than a successful growing season. It signals the expansion of our agricultural presence in Serbia and the beginning of a broader commitment to high-quality, sustainable food production. The wheat will be stored in our own advanced 22,000 metric tonne storage facility located in Žabalj, positioning us at the heart of Serbia’s most productive agricultural zone. Wheat is just the start. With soya and maize also under cultivation, our harvests will support a growing network of trusted partners across Europe and beyond. From seed to silo, Gapuma is dedicated to contributing to long-term food security, regional resilience, and responsible agri-trade. We are proud to be part of a new agricultural chapter in Serbia — one rooted in quality, innovation, and a shared vision for nourishing communities across borders.
Investing in Future Leaders: An Intern’s Journey at Gapuma
2nd July 2025 At Gapuma, we believe that investing in young talent is not only part of our long-term vision, but also a core pillar of our Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) commitment. Over the years, we’ve been proud to host a growing number of bright, driven interns who gain hands-on experience across our global operations. One such intern is Phume Mazibuko, currently completing a seven-week internship at our London head office. With four weeks behind her, Phume has already made an impact and gained invaluable insight into international trade, procurement, and logistics. Here’s Phume’s account in her own words: “With four weeks completed and only three more weeks to go, I have already gained an extensive amount of knowledge while being at Gapuma. I have worked with both the Procurement and Logistics departments, splitting my time equally between the two. In procurement, I was responsible for carrying through enquiries. I was tasked with researching chemical suppliers and contacting the requisite suppliers based on client specifications. This task improved my communication and problem-solving skills. Furthermore, the procurement team ensured that I gained technical knowledge of the forward freight industry by learning Incoterms, organising Certificates of Analysis and more. Another key task was conducting a regional freight market check. This was significant for my understanding of market patterns and would provide both the Procurement and Logistics teams with up-to-date information, vital for drafting client quotes and planning agreements between clients and suppliers. While working with Logistics, I was required to update a Know Your Client Excel sheet and ensure that the relevant information is correctly and thoroughly logged for future reference when the team needs to carry through a shipment. This improved my attention to detail, my risk assessment skills, and my deeper understanding of company and industry standards. Through all of this, the team environments at Gapuma remained supportive and collaborative, and thus, I have been able to learn a great deal from my supervisors and colleagues when given regular and in-depth feedback on tasks. This experience has affirmed my interest in the transportation of bulk liquids but has especially opened me up to a world of freight forwarding and given me the confidence to pursue a role in this field. Although my experience is not yet over, I am grateful to have worked with such a dedicated and positive team, so I would highly recommend this internship to others interested in international trade.” We’re proud to play a small part in the journeys of emerging professionals like Phume — and we look forward to welcoming many more.
As NATO Meets in The Hague, Trump Feels Vindicated on 5%
25th June 2025 At this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, a once-dismissed proposition is gaining real traction: that member states should work towards allocating 5% of GDP to defence. What began as a controversial demand from Donald Trump — decried at the time as antagonistic and outlandish — is now being seriously discussed as a necessary strategic shift in an increasingly fragmented world order. The proposal, broken down into 3.5% for core defence and 1.5% for critical infrastructure and resilience, reflects the growing realisation that conventional deterrence, cyber-security, and supply chain security are no longer optional. They are essential to political and economic stability. As Trump often argued, NATO could not rely indefinitely on disproportionate American support. Today, many of his critics now echo the same logic — albeit through gritted teeth. Yet the story is not as simple as it first appears. Economic Implications and Commodities Impact From a market perspective, the macroeconomic effects of this shift are both vast and contradictory. On the one hand, a coordinated increase in defence budgets across NATO members would inject enormous stimulus into R&D, manufacturing, and logistics, particularly if procurement is channelled into domestic industries. For commodity-focused firms, including Gapuma, a surge in infrastructure and defence-linked investment may well create more predictable demand, greater state-backed contract certainty, and more stable long-term relationships. Critically, a better-funded defence-industrial base also strengthens the resilience of strategic supply chains, including those for energy, rare earth minerals, and base metals. In other words, defence spending can act as a structural support for the commodities sector, ensuring that supply chains remain operational even during geopolitical stress or disruption. However, not all the consequences are positive. As J.P. Morgan recently warned, heightened tensions or renewed conflict in the Middle East could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures already straining global economies. In a world of finite resources, increased defence and infrastructure demand may also exacerbate competition for commodities like lithium, cobalt, and copper — materials essential for both military and green technologies. This will likely drive up prices, fuel protectionism, and intensify environmental degradation as nations push harder into fragile ecosystems. Strategic Realignment or Strategic Drift? For the United States, a 5% commitment across NATO could provide the long-sought opportunity to rebalance towards the Indo-Pacific, while empowering European allies to shoulder more of their regional defence burden. But as Europe spends more, it may also demand more autonomy, and Washington’s status as prima inter pares within NATO may face growing challenges. The wider geopolitical effects remain uncertain. Greater defence spending may deter aggression — or provoke countermeasures. It may strengthen alliances — or expose fractures. Much will depend on execution, coordination, and whether 5% becomes more than just a headline figure. At Gapuma, we recognise that defence economics are increasingly central to global trade dynamics. The convergence of military preparedness and commercial resilience is not merely theoretical. It is a tangible and urgent challenge — and for forward-looking enterprises, also an opportunity.
Strengthening UK–Serbia Ties: Gapuma at the King’s Official Birthday Party in Belgrade
20th June 2025 On Thursday, Gapuma was honoured to attend the celebration of His Majesty King Charles III’s Official Birthday, hosted by His Excellency Edward Ferguson, British Ambassador to Serbia. Held in Belgrade, the event brought together a distinguished group of British businesses operating in Serbia, reflecting the strength of bilateral trade and diplomatic relations between the United Kingdom and Serbia. Gapuma was represented by Aron Mohaci, Managing Director of Gapuma Serbia, alongside other colleagues from the regional team. The event served as a valuable opportunity to engage with fellow UK-based companies, including AstraZeneca, British Motors, ARUP, Endava, Bechtel, G4S, ERG International Group, Chivas Regal, Tanqueray, Froneri, Harrisons, and Menzies Aviation. All were present to mark this formal occasion and reaffirm the shared values that underpin our work in the region. Our presence in Serbia Gapuma has established a long-standing and growing presence in Serbia, recognising the country’s role as a strategic economic and logistical gateway to Southeast Europe. Our operations support key sectors through the supply of critical raw materials and bespoke industrial solutions, helping to meet the demands of an increasingly dynamic local market. With Serbia’s advantageous geographical position and its ongoing economic reforms, the country is fast becoming a vital partner in regional industrial development. At Gapuma, we focus on fostering long-term relationships through the consistent delivery of high-quality services and materials that match local needs and global standards. Our commitment to collaboration The King’s Official Birthday Party was not only a celebration of a significant national occasion, but also a reminder of the importance of diplomacy, mutual respect, and commercial cooperation. Gapuma values the trust we have earned in Serbia through sustained engagement, investment, and responsiveness to market shifts. Our participation in this event underscores our ongoing commitment to playing a constructive role in Serbia’s economic progress. As our operations in the region continue to grow, we remain firmly focused on delivering value with integrity and on deepening our partnerships across sectors and borders. We extend our warm thanks to the British Embassy in Belgrade for its kind invitation and hospitality, and for its ongoing support of UK companies contributing to Serbia’s development.
The Return of the Special Relationship…
– Or Just the Shape of Trade to Come? 18th June 2025 While all eyes at the G7 summit were trained on the West’s fractured response to the escalating crisis in the Middle East, a quieter but potentially more consequential event took place on the sidelines. The United Kingdom and the United States finalised a long‑anticipated bilateral trade agreement—a milestone that may signal not only a new phase in transatlantic relations, but also a broader reshaping of global trade norms in an era defined by protectionism, realpolitik, and shifting alliances. A Deal for the Times The trade deal, while modest in scope, is politically significant. It reaffirms the mutual recognition of standards in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, financial services, and data flows. It also streamlines customs procedures and seeks to reduce certain non‑tariff barriers that have emerged post‑Brexit. Importantly, it locks in preferential terms for select British exports—steel, whisky, and automotive parts among them. But the concessions haven’t all been one‑way. The UK has agreed to allow greater access for certain US agricultural products, and has aligned with Washington’s digital‑service standards—seen by many as a departure from the EU’s more stringent regulatory model. While the British government is touting the agreement as a “pragmatic and future‑facing pact”, some in Westminster are privately acknowledging it as a necessary compromise to maintain relevance in a world where multilateralism is faltering. A New Bilateral Era? This agreement may well be a harbinger of things to come. With the World Trade Organization increasingly sidelined and the multilateral order under strain, bilateral treaties are fast becoming the architecture of modern commerce. As the Trump administration doubles down on “America First” trade policies, countries like the UK find themselves negotiating from a weaker hand—but with greater flexibility. Bilateralism allows for bespoke agreements, faster turnarounds, and the potential for more innovative cooperation, particularly in tech and green‑energy sectors. Indeed, Washington is currently in informal talks with India, and has floated trialling sector‑specific pacts with select Indo‑Pacific nations. It’s no coincidence that a resurgent United States is choosing bilateral forums over multilateral platforms—the former provides leverage, while the latter demands compromise. For the UK, this means recalibrating its post‑Brexit trade strategy to favour agility over alignment. The US deal may soon be followed by refreshed terms with Canada, Japan, and perhaps even Australia. And although a comprehensive UK–EU trade upgrade remains unlikely under current circumstances, incremental sectoral add‑ons are not off the table. Starmer: Picking Up the Pieces or Stooping to Conquer London Ascendant The political subtext of the US–UK deal is just as noteworthy as its commercial implications. Keir Starmer’s government has made no secret of its ambition to rekindle the so‑called “Special Relationship”—but with a more grounded, less romanticised approach than past governments. Recent moves point to the UK becoming a go‑to diplomatic interlocutor for Washington. Earlier this year, when the US sought a neutral location to initiate talks with China on reopening commercial aviation routes and managing export controls, it didn’t choose Geneva, Brussels or Berlin. It chose London. That decision speaks volumes. As The Economist recently noted, “The UK is rapidly positioning itself as America’s most reliable European partner,” with one unnamed senior US official remarking, “We know where we stand with London—especially under Starmer.” Adding further weight, Chancellor Rachel Reeves described Britain as an “oasis of stability” for investors, citing the new US trade deal as reinforcing that confidence. Nevertheless, not everyone is convinced. Critics warn that “transactionalists cannot be trusted in dealmaking,” pointing out that by aligning too closely with a fiercely transactional Washington, “once we have agreed to Plan A… it will be very hard for us to resist a subsequent and more damaging Plan B.” In a sense, Britain is playing the long game: embedding itself as indispensable to both Washington’s economic ambitions and its broader geopolitical strategy. The Cost of Relevance Of course, such positioning comes with trade‑offs. Critics argue that the UK is playing junior partner to an increasingly transactional America—repeating concerns that echo decades of scepticism. Others contend that in a world trending towards regional blocs—the EU, ASEAN, Mercosur—Britain’s choice to pursue bilateralism might limit its influence in the long term. Still, for the moment, the strategy appears to be paying dividends. The US deal may not be the grand free‑trade agreement once promised during the Brexit campaign, but it represents a tangible pivot away from isolation and towards strategic engagement. It’s not perfect. It may not even be entirely fair. But in a fragmented global economy, it may be the best available option. More importantly, it signals that Britain is prepared to act—not just as an independent trader, but as a key geopolitical player in an increasingly uncertain world.
🌍 Crude Oil Instability Renews Debate on Energy Strategy
17th June 2025 Volatility in global oil markets has once again come into sharp focus as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Crude prices have surged following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, pushing Brent close to the USD 80 mark—a level widely considered a threshold at which previously uneconomic sources of oil, such as shale and fracked reserves, start to re-enter the conversation. This development comes amid continued energy disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and increasingly fractured relations with Russia. As supply chains are tested and markets jitter, the conversation around energy resilience, security, and strategy is growing ever more urgent. At Gapuma, we remain mindful of the complex and often polarising nature of energy policy, particularly where fossil fuels such as fracked oil and gas are concerned. While fracking remains a subject of intense debate—on environmental, regulatory, and social grounds—what is undeniable is that rising oil prices tend to breathe new life into its economic case. At price points above USD 80 per barrel, advocates of fracking are likely to become more vocal, and investment interest could follow. However, it is essential to situate this debate within a broader strategic context. Short-term responses to supply shocks must not overshadow the longer-term imperative to create a more balanced and sustainable energy mix. Carbon-based fuels—while still an important part of global supply—must gradually yield to lower-emission alternatives that offer both environmental and geopolitical stability. Battery technologies, scalable renewables, green hydrogen, and smart grid infrastructure will all play increasingly pivotal roles in shaping the energy systems of tomorrow. These technologies reduce dependency on volatile imports, enhance domestic energy security, and contribute meaningfully to decarbonisation targets. As political analyst Marwan Bishara noted, “Energy has become the lifeblood of geopolitical power—a single disruption can reshape global alliances.” That reality has been laid bare in both Eastern Europe and the Gulf, and it continues to shape decision-making across boardrooms and governments alike. Reflecting on this moment, Jack Bardakjian, Gapuma’s Group Managing Director, said: “We need to be very judicious in the choices we make today to guarantee our energy security in the medium to longer term.” With the situation in Iran remaining fluid and the risk of further destabilisation high, the pressure on energy markets is likely to persist. Should a leadership vacuum emerge or regional conflict escalate, we could see further strain on oil flows and a renewed push by certain sectors for domestic energy sources, including shale and fracked hydrocarbons. Nonetheless, the long-term trajectory must point toward a healthier, more diversified global energy portfolio—one in which carbon-based fuels represent a smaller share and sustainability plays a greater role in both energy policy and investment decisions. Gapuma remains committed to providing insight and clarity at this critical junction, as markets, policymakers, and partners navigate the path ahead.
📊 UK Spending Review 2025: Cautious Progress, but a Missed Opportunity for Business Confidence
11th June 2025 The recent spending review by Chancellor Rachel Reeves marks a significant moment in the evolution of the UK’s fiscal and investment strategy. Framed as a pivot toward long-term resilience and sustainable growth, the review sets out day-to-day and capital spending plans that seek to stabilise public services, unlock infrastructure development, and distinguish Labour’s economic stance from that of previous governments. From the vantage point of a business such as Gapuma, working across international trade, sustainable fuels, and alternative energy solutions, the review presents both encouraging signals and persistent concerns. While there is much to welcome in the renewed attention to capital investment and decarbonised infrastructure, several underlying issues—most notably the continuing burden of elevated employer National Insurance—remain unresolved. Strategic Infrastructure: Welcome Commitments, Uneven Benefits The headline figure of £113bn in additional capital investment over the next four years is perhaps the most striking element of the review. It includes support for flagship infrastructure projects, such as £14.2bn for the Sizewell C nuclear development, and £15bn for improvements to public transport outside London. For a company like Gapuma, whose activities touch on low-emission logistics, biofuel trading, and cross-border sustainable energy supply, such investment is welcome. Modernising regional infrastructure and transport networks could catalyse demand for cleaner fuels, more transparent supply chains, and decarbonisation services aligned with Net Zero targets. However, it’s important to note that this capital boost is front-loaded—meaning much of the new spending is concentrated in the early years of this parliament. With borrowing costs rising and fiscal headroom narrowing, there is reasonable uncertainty about how much of this investment pipeline will be sustained, particularly for emerging sectors that do not yet have the institutional weight of legacy industries. A Balanced Approach, but Policy Volatility Remains a Risk The Chancellor was careful to frame this review as a departure from austerity without crossing into fiscal recklessness. Real-terms departmental spending will rise by 1.2% annually, and capital spending by 1.3%, modest increases that reflect a constrained environment shaped by weak economic growth and elevated public debt. That said, businesses are still contending with the effects of frequent and abrupt policy reversals in recent years. From energy pricing frameworks to regulatory treatment of alternative fuels, the policy landscape has often shifted faster than business planning cycles can accommodate. For companies operating across borders and across sectors, stability and predictability are as valuable as funding. A clearer, more dependable framework for industrial decarbonisation, cross-border energy trade, and green investment remains a high priority—particularly in the absence of significant new policy instruments in this review. National Insurance: The Missing Reversal Perhaps the most conspicuous omission in this otherwise comprehensive review is any move to reverse the unprecedented hike in employer National Insurance contributions. For many businesses, this remains a major obstacle to growth, workforce expansion, and strategic investment in skills. In a post-pandemic, low-growth economy, where talent acquisition and labour market participation are key to resilience, the continuation of this higher rate undermines confidence. It directly disincentivises hiring at the very moment when investment in people should complement investment in infrastructure. Jack Bardakjian, CEO of Gapuma Group, commented: “Gapuma remains committed to the shared enterprise of making the British economy prosperous and forward-thinking—but it needs government to share in the heavy lifting, instead of always seeing business as a backstop and fiscal fail safe. This cycle of raiding corporate coffers has to end, or else confidence will ebb still further and mitigate against the growth Reeves’s plans require.” Conclusion: Strategic Direction Set, Delivery Now Critical Reeves’s spending review does not lack ambition. It provides a roadmap for critical investment in infrastructure, seeks to safeguard key public services, and attempts to restore economic credibility through consistent messaging. But for the private sector to fully engage and invest alongside government, a stronger emphasis on long-term policy coherence, hiring incentives, and stable taxation will be essential. Gapuma remains committed to working at the forefront of sustainable trade, alternative fuels, and the energy transition. We will continue to advocate for the policy clarity and investment conditions required to drive meaningful, market-led progress in these areas.
🔋 Gapuma Attends 9th European Biofuels Conference in Marbella
10th June 2025 Senior representatives from Gapuma Switzerland AG—Jacques Landolt (Director, Biofuels), Fabrice Brunet (Managing Director), and Rafael Fraletti (Senior Trader)—participated in the 9th European Biofuels Conference, held in Marbella from 2–6 June 2025. Organised by Dropet and hosted at the Hotel Don Pepe Gran Meliá, the event brought together leading figures from across the European biofuels and renewable energy sector. The conference addressed key challenges and emerging trends shaping the future of sustainable fuels in Europe. Discussions centred on regulatory alignment across EU member states, traceability in biofuel supply chains, and the commercial strategies needed to support large-scale decarbonisation. Participants included a wide range of stakeholders, from producers and refiners to policy advisors and international traders. Notable attendees included ePURE (the European renewable ethanol association), CRISTALCO, Ensus, Marquis Energy, iEthanol, and influential policy groups such as EWABA and the European Biodiesel Board. Their engagement reflected the sector’s growing urgency in aligning innovation, regulation and market demand to support the continent’s clean energy transition. For Gapuma, the event offered a valuable opportunity to strengthen partnerships, exchange insights with key players in the field, and deepen our strategic commitment to building robust and sustainable biofuel supply networks. These discussions reinforce our mission to deliver energy solutions that are not only commercially viable but also aligned with global environmental priorities. We extend our sincere thanks to Dropet and all participating organisations for their collaboration and contribution to a dynamic and timely event.
The Bilateral Turn: Brexit and the Unravelling of the Global Order
By: Jack Bardakjian June 2025 When the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, the world debated what it meant for Britain. Would its economy tank? Would trade shrink? Would London lose its crown as a global financial capital? Years on, the answers to these questions remain contested. But the far more profound and less examined consequence of Brexit may lie elsewhere: it marked a defining fracture in the multilateral, globalist order that had dominated the post-Cold War world. Brexit, in hindsight, was not an aberration but a harbinger. It exposed—and accelerated—a tectonic shift towards a world order rooted not in supranational cooperation but in bilateral, self-interested deal-making. This is not merely a British story. Across the world, multilateralism is being quietly but systematically dismantled. From the United States’ retreat under Donald Trump from the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, to the questioning of NATO’s relevance, to China’s increasingly bilateral approach to Africa and Central Asia via the Belt and Road Initiative—this is a world where regional and global institutions are no longer seen as indispensable. As Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, warned in 2023, “We are moving dangerously close to a world where power, not principles, decides outcomes.” Supranational bodies—be they the EU, NAFTA (now USMCA), ASEAN, or even the United Nations—are increasingly constrained by nationalism, internal dysfunction, or outright rejection. António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, has spoken of a “breakdown in trust between the global North and South” that is corroding collective action. Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum, has acknowledged that we are now in a “polycrisis” world, where cooperation is in short supply and crises are entangled. The Shifting Ground in Africa Nowhere is this breakdown in multilateral confidence felt more poignantly than in Africa. The continent is witnessing a sharp reduction in traditional development assistance, most notably from the United States. Humanitarian aid cuts—raised publicly by Bill Gates—threaten food security, health initiatives, and infrastructure development. As Western retreat creates vacuums, they are being rapidly filled by China and Russia, who offer financial support, but often with implicit expectations: natural resource access, military alignments, or political loyalties. This pivot risks creating long-term dependencies that undermine sovereign economic development. Rather than becoming suppliers of unprocessed raw materials in return for external support, African nations must prioritise internal value addition. Manufacturing: Africa’s Hidden Lever A critical step forward lies in manufacturing. Africa cannot afford to remain a dumping ground for low-cost imports from Asia. Building domestic manufacturing capacity—especially in sectors like textiles, agribusiness, and light engineering—not only generates employment but also creates taxable economic activity and fosters skills transfer. Indigenous industries empower local populations, deepen economic resilience, and reduce reliance on volatile global supply chains. With abundant cotton production across countries like Mali, Egypt, and Tanzania, Africa is uniquely positioned to become a global hub for finished garments. Amid global tariff wars and reshoring trends, this may be a rare window of strategic opportunity. A coordinated effort—combining industrial policy, infrastructure investment, and export promotion—could see Africa emerge as a credible alternative to traditional manufacturing centres in Asia. Contested Influence and New Risks Paradoxically, even as Western nations scale down traditional aid, they are extending diplomatic invitations to sanctioned regimes—seeking strategic partnerships that blur the lines of ethical engagement. For Africa, this creates a messy diplomatic terrain: engagement brings investment, but at the risk of entanglement in foreign policy chessboards. But progress is possible. The example of Aliko Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Nigeria—a continent-shifting investment that positions Nigeria as an exporter of refined petroleum products to Europe and the US—proves that African enterprise can build world-class infrastructure, compete globally, and rewrite the narrative. Winners and Losers in a Fragmented World In this new order, nimble states and corporations that can navigate a thicket of bilateral arrangements stand to gain. Countries like India, Turkey, and Vietnam—each pursuing assertive trade diplomacy while resisting bloc allegiances—are early beneficiaries. Meanwhile, smaller nations lacking leverage may find themselves bypassed or beholden to unequal deals. For multinational corporations, particularly those with heavy exposure to regulated, integrated markets, this world poses challenges. Standards may diverge, supply chains could become more brittle, and legal protections more uneven. “The cost of doing business in a fractured world is rising,” observed Sean Doherty, Head of International Trade at the World Economic Forum. Impact on the Commodities Business Nowhere is this more acutely felt than in the physical commodities sector. Every link in the chain—from sourcing and procurement, to shipping and logistics, warehousing, distribution, and payment—is being reshaped. Sourcing and Purchasing: Commodity traders are already grappling with shifting rules of origin and the politicisation of supply sources. Sanctions regimes are proliferating. In a bilateral world, access to resources becomes a function of diplomacy, not just price. Shipping and Logistics: The re-routing of goods due to conflict (e.g., Red Sea disruptions), trade realignments, or regulatory divergence increases costs and complexity. Fragmented maritime standards and port regulations introduce new bottlenecks. Warehousing and Distribution: Cross-border movement of goods increasingly requires duplicative compliance and diversified infrastructure. Regional hubs may supplant global distribution centres. Payment Systems: The rise of alternative payment architectures—such as China’s CIPS, Russia’s SPFS, or blockchain-based systems—reflects a move away from SWIFT and the USD-dominated order. In a bilateral world, currency risk and payment friction increase. As Yanis Varoufakis has noted, “In the absence of a global monetary anchor, transactional trust becomes a geopolitical instrument.” Banking in the Bilateral Age Traditional banking systems—designed for a globalised, rules-based framework—are straining. Compliance burdens are rising, correspondent banking relationships are being severed, and KYC/AML enforcement is becoming both more politicised and decentralised. Financing trade in a bilateral world demands agility, robust risk management, and increasingly, localised financial infrastructure. “The global economy is decoupling into spheres of influence,” said Barack Obama in a 2024 interview. “If institutions don’t adapt, they will become irrelevant.” The Road Ahead: Timeline and Turbulence This shift is not a flick of a switch but a process—likely to […]