The Return of the Special Relationship…
– Or Just the Shape of Trade to Come? 18th June 2025 While all eyes at the G7 summit were trained on the West’s fractured response to the escalating crisis in the Middle East, a quieter but potentially more consequential event took place on the sidelines. The United Kingdom and the United States finalised a long‑anticipated bilateral trade agreement—a milestone that may signal not only a new phase in transatlantic relations, but also a broader reshaping of global trade norms in an era defined by protectionism, realpolitik, and shifting alliances. A Deal for the Times The trade deal, while modest in scope, is politically significant. It reaffirms the mutual recognition of standards in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, financial services, and data flows. It also streamlines customs procedures and seeks to reduce certain non‑tariff barriers that have emerged post‑Brexit. Importantly, it locks in preferential terms for select British exports—steel, whisky, and automotive parts among them. But the concessions haven’t all been one‑way. The UK has agreed to allow greater access for certain US agricultural products, and has aligned with Washington’s digital‑service standards—seen by many as a departure from the EU’s more stringent regulatory model. While the British government is touting the agreement as a “pragmatic and future‑facing pact”, some in Westminster are privately acknowledging it as a necessary compromise to maintain relevance in a world where multilateralism is faltering. A New Bilateral Era? This agreement may well be a harbinger of things to come. With the World Trade Organization increasingly sidelined and the multilateral order under strain, bilateral treaties are fast becoming the architecture of modern commerce. As the Trump administration doubles down on “America First” trade policies, countries like the UK find themselves negotiating from a weaker hand—but with greater flexibility. Bilateralism allows for bespoke agreements, faster turnarounds, and the potential for more innovative cooperation, particularly in tech and green‑energy sectors. Indeed, Washington is currently in informal talks with India, and has floated trialling sector‑specific pacts with select Indo‑Pacific nations. It’s no coincidence that a resurgent United States is choosing bilateral forums over multilateral platforms—the former provides leverage, while the latter demands compromise. For the UK, this means recalibrating its post‑Brexit trade strategy to favour agility over alignment. The US deal may soon be followed by refreshed terms with Canada, Japan, and perhaps even Australia. And although a comprehensive UK–EU trade upgrade remains unlikely under current circumstances, incremental sectoral add‑ons are not off the table. Starmer: Picking Up the Pieces or Stooping to Conquer London Ascendant The political subtext of the US–UK deal is just as noteworthy as its commercial implications. Keir Starmer’s government has made no secret of its ambition to rekindle the so‑called “Special Relationship”—but with a more grounded, less romanticised approach than past governments. Recent moves point to the UK becoming a go‑to diplomatic interlocutor for Washington. Earlier this year, when the US sought a neutral location to initiate talks with China on reopening commercial aviation routes and managing export controls, it didn’t choose Geneva, Brussels or Berlin. It chose London. That decision speaks volumes. As The Economist recently noted, “The UK is rapidly positioning itself as America’s most reliable European partner,” with one unnamed senior US official remarking, “We know where we stand with London—especially under Starmer.” Adding further weight, Chancellor Rachel Reeves described Britain as an “oasis of stability” for investors, citing the new US trade deal as reinforcing that confidence. Nevertheless, not everyone is convinced. Critics warn that “transactionalists cannot be trusted in dealmaking,” pointing out that by aligning too closely with a fiercely transactional Washington, “once we have agreed to Plan A… it will be very hard for us to resist a subsequent and more damaging Plan B.” In a sense, Britain is playing the long game: embedding itself as indispensable to both Washington’s economic ambitions and its broader geopolitical strategy. The Cost of Relevance Of course, such positioning comes with trade‑offs. Critics argue that the UK is playing junior partner to an increasingly transactional America—repeating concerns that echo decades of scepticism. Others contend that in a world trending towards regional blocs—the EU, ASEAN, Mercosur—Britain’s choice to pursue bilateralism might limit its influence in the long term. Still, for the moment, the strategy appears to be paying dividends. The US deal may not be the grand free‑trade agreement once promised during the Brexit campaign, but it represents a tangible pivot away from isolation and towards strategic engagement. It’s not perfect. It may not even be entirely fair. But in a fragmented global economy, it may be the best available option. More importantly, it signals that Britain is prepared to act—not just as an independent trader, but as a key geopolitical player in an increasingly uncertain world.
🌍 Crude Oil Instability Renews Debate on Energy Strategy
17th June 2025 Volatility in global oil markets has once again come into sharp focus as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Crude prices have surged following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, pushing Brent close to the USD 80 mark—a level widely considered a threshold at which previously uneconomic sources of oil, such as shale and fracked reserves, start to re-enter the conversation. This development comes amid continued energy disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and increasingly fractured relations with Russia. As supply chains are tested and markets jitter, the conversation around energy resilience, security, and strategy is growing ever more urgent. At Gapuma, we remain mindful of the complex and often polarising nature of energy policy, particularly where fossil fuels such as fracked oil and gas are concerned. While fracking remains a subject of intense debate—on environmental, regulatory, and social grounds—what is undeniable is that rising oil prices tend to breathe new life into its economic case. At price points above USD 80 per barrel, advocates of fracking are likely to become more vocal, and investment interest could follow. However, it is essential to situate this debate within a broader strategic context. Short-term responses to supply shocks must not overshadow the longer-term imperative to create a more balanced and sustainable energy mix. Carbon-based fuels—while still an important part of global supply—must gradually yield to lower-emission alternatives that offer both environmental and geopolitical stability. Battery technologies, scalable renewables, green hydrogen, and smart grid infrastructure will all play increasingly pivotal roles in shaping the energy systems of tomorrow. These technologies reduce dependency on volatile imports, enhance domestic energy security, and contribute meaningfully to decarbonisation targets. As political analyst Marwan Bishara noted, “Energy has become the lifeblood of geopolitical power—a single disruption can reshape global alliances.” That reality has been laid bare in both Eastern Europe and the Gulf, and it continues to shape decision-making across boardrooms and governments alike. Reflecting on this moment, Jack Bardakjian, Gapuma’s Group Managing Director, said: “We need to be very judicious in the choices we make today to guarantee our energy security in the medium to longer term.” With the situation in Iran remaining fluid and the risk of further destabilisation high, the pressure on energy markets is likely to persist. Should a leadership vacuum emerge or regional conflict escalate, we could see further strain on oil flows and a renewed push by certain sectors for domestic energy sources, including shale and fracked hydrocarbons. Nonetheless, the long-term trajectory must point toward a healthier, more diversified global energy portfolio—one in which carbon-based fuels represent a smaller share and sustainability plays a greater role in both energy policy and investment decisions. Gapuma remains committed to providing insight and clarity at this critical junction, as markets, policymakers, and partners navigate the path ahead.
📊 UK Spending Review 2025: Cautious Progress, but a Missed Opportunity for Business Confidence
11th June 2025 The recent spending review by Chancellor Rachel Reeves marks a significant moment in the evolution of the UK’s fiscal and investment strategy. Framed as a pivot toward long-term resilience and sustainable growth, the review sets out day-to-day and capital spending plans that seek to stabilise public services, unlock infrastructure development, and distinguish Labour’s economic stance from that of previous governments. From the vantage point of a business such as Gapuma, working across international trade, sustainable fuels, and alternative energy solutions, the review presents both encouraging signals and persistent concerns. While there is much to welcome in the renewed attention to capital investment and decarbonised infrastructure, several underlying issues—most notably the continuing burden of elevated employer National Insurance—remain unresolved. Strategic Infrastructure: Welcome Commitments, Uneven Benefits The headline figure of £113bn in additional capital investment over the next four years is perhaps the most striking element of the review. It includes support for flagship infrastructure projects, such as £14.2bn for the Sizewell C nuclear development, and £15bn for improvements to public transport outside London. For a company like Gapuma, whose activities touch on low-emission logistics, biofuel trading, and cross-border sustainable energy supply, such investment is welcome. Modernising regional infrastructure and transport networks could catalyse demand for cleaner fuels, more transparent supply chains, and decarbonisation services aligned with Net Zero targets. However, it’s important to note that this capital boost is front-loaded—meaning much of the new spending is concentrated in the early years of this parliament. With borrowing costs rising and fiscal headroom narrowing, there is reasonable uncertainty about how much of this investment pipeline will be sustained, particularly for emerging sectors that do not yet have the institutional weight of legacy industries. A Balanced Approach, but Policy Volatility Remains a Risk The Chancellor was careful to frame this review as a departure from austerity without crossing into fiscal recklessness. Real-terms departmental spending will rise by 1.2% annually, and capital spending by 1.3%, modest increases that reflect a constrained environment shaped by weak economic growth and elevated public debt. That said, businesses are still contending with the effects of frequent and abrupt policy reversals in recent years. From energy pricing frameworks to regulatory treatment of alternative fuels, the policy landscape has often shifted faster than business planning cycles can accommodate. For companies operating across borders and across sectors, stability and predictability are as valuable as funding. A clearer, more dependable framework for industrial decarbonisation, cross-border energy trade, and green investment remains a high priority—particularly in the absence of significant new policy instruments in this review. National Insurance: The Missing Reversal Perhaps the most conspicuous omission in this otherwise comprehensive review is any move to reverse the unprecedented hike in employer National Insurance contributions. For many businesses, this remains a major obstacle to growth, workforce expansion, and strategic investment in skills. In a post-pandemic, low-growth economy, where talent acquisition and labour market participation are key to resilience, the continuation of this higher rate undermines confidence. It directly disincentivises hiring at the very moment when investment in people should complement investment in infrastructure. Jack Bardakjian, CEO of Gapuma Group, commented: “Gapuma remains committed to the shared enterprise of making the British economy prosperous and forward-thinking—but it needs government to share in the heavy lifting, instead of always seeing business as a backstop and fiscal fail safe. This cycle of raiding corporate coffers has to end, or else confidence will ebb still further and mitigate against the growth Reeves’s plans require.” Conclusion: Strategic Direction Set, Delivery Now Critical Reeves’s spending review does not lack ambition. It provides a roadmap for critical investment in infrastructure, seeks to safeguard key public services, and attempts to restore economic credibility through consistent messaging. But for the private sector to fully engage and invest alongside government, a stronger emphasis on long-term policy coherence, hiring incentives, and stable taxation will be essential. Gapuma remains committed to working at the forefront of sustainable trade, alternative fuels, and the energy transition. We will continue to advocate for the policy clarity and investment conditions required to drive meaningful, market-led progress in these areas.
🔋 Gapuma Attends 9th European Biofuels Conference in Marbella
10th June 2025 Senior representatives from Gapuma Switzerland AG—Jacques Landolt (Director, Biofuels), Fabrice Brunet (Managing Director), and Rafael Fraletti (Senior Trader)—participated in the 9th European Biofuels Conference, held in Marbella from 2–6 June 2025. Organised by Dropet and hosted at the Hotel Don Pepe Gran Meliá, the event brought together leading figures from across the European biofuels and renewable energy sector. The conference addressed key challenges and emerging trends shaping the future of sustainable fuels in Europe. Discussions centred on regulatory alignment across EU member states, traceability in biofuel supply chains, and the commercial strategies needed to support large-scale decarbonisation. Participants included a wide range of stakeholders, from producers and refiners to policy advisors and international traders. Notable attendees included ePURE (the European renewable ethanol association), CRISTALCO, Ensus, Marquis Energy, iEthanol, and influential policy groups such as EWABA and the European Biodiesel Board. Their engagement reflected the sector’s growing urgency in aligning innovation, regulation and market demand to support the continent’s clean energy transition. For Gapuma, the event offered a valuable opportunity to strengthen partnerships, exchange insights with key players in the field, and deepen our strategic commitment to building robust and sustainable biofuel supply networks. These discussions reinforce our mission to deliver energy solutions that are not only commercially viable but also aligned with global environmental priorities. We extend our sincere thanks to Dropet and all participating organisations for their collaboration and contribution to a dynamic and timely event.
The Bilateral Turn: Brexit and the Unravelling of the Global Order
By: Jack Bardakjian June 2025 When the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, the world debated what it meant for Britain. Would its economy tank? Would trade shrink? Would London lose its crown as a global financial capital? Years on, the answers to these questions remain contested. But the far more profound and less examined consequence of Brexit may lie elsewhere: it marked a defining fracture in the multilateral, globalist order that had dominated the post-Cold War world. Brexit, in hindsight, was not an aberration but a harbinger. It exposed—and accelerated—a tectonic shift towards a world order rooted not in supranational cooperation but in bilateral, self-interested deal-making. This is not merely a British story. Across the world, multilateralism is being quietly but systematically dismantled. From the United States’ retreat under Donald Trump from the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, to the questioning of NATO’s relevance, to China’s increasingly bilateral approach to Africa and Central Asia via the Belt and Road Initiative—this is a world where regional and global institutions are no longer seen as indispensable. As Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, warned in 2023, “We are moving dangerously close to a world where power, not principles, decides outcomes.” Supranational bodies—be they the EU, NAFTA (now USMCA), ASEAN, or even the United Nations—are increasingly constrained by nationalism, internal dysfunction, or outright rejection. António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, has spoken of a “breakdown in trust between the global North and South” that is corroding collective action. Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum, has acknowledged that we are now in a “polycrisis” world, where cooperation is in short supply and crises are entangled. The Shifting Ground in Africa Nowhere is this breakdown in multilateral confidence felt more poignantly than in Africa. The continent is witnessing a sharp reduction in traditional development assistance, most notably from the United States. Humanitarian aid cuts—raised publicly by Bill Gates—threaten food security, health initiatives, and infrastructure development. As Western retreat creates vacuums, they are being rapidly filled by China and Russia, who offer financial support, but often with implicit expectations: natural resource access, military alignments, or political loyalties. This pivot risks creating long-term dependencies that undermine sovereign economic development. Rather than becoming suppliers of unprocessed raw materials in return for external support, African nations must prioritise internal value addition. Manufacturing: Africa’s Hidden Lever A critical step forward lies in manufacturing. Africa cannot afford to remain a dumping ground for low-cost imports from Asia. Building domestic manufacturing capacity—especially in sectors like textiles, agribusiness, and light engineering—not only generates employment but also creates taxable economic activity and fosters skills transfer. Indigenous industries empower local populations, deepen economic resilience, and reduce reliance on volatile global supply chains. With abundant cotton production across countries like Mali, Egypt, and Tanzania, Africa is uniquely positioned to become a global hub for finished garments. Amid global tariff wars and reshoring trends, this may be a rare window of strategic opportunity. A coordinated effort—combining industrial policy, infrastructure investment, and export promotion—could see Africa emerge as a credible alternative to traditional manufacturing centres in Asia. Contested Influence and New Risks Paradoxically, even as Western nations scale down traditional aid, they are extending diplomatic invitations to sanctioned regimes—seeking strategic partnerships that blur the lines of ethical engagement. For Africa, this creates a messy diplomatic terrain: engagement brings investment, but at the risk of entanglement in foreign policy chessboards. But progress is possible. The example of Aliko Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Nigeria—a continent-shifting investment that positions Nigeria as an exporter of refined petroleum products to Europe and the US—proves that African enterprise can build world-class infrastructure, compete globally, and rewrite the narrative. Winners and Losers in a Fragmented World In this new order, nimble states and corporations that can navigate a thicket of bilateral arrangements stand to gain. Countries like India, Turkey, and Vietnam—each pursuing assertive trade diplomacy while resisting bloc allegiances—are early beneficiaries. Meanwhile, smaller nations lacking leverage may find themselves bypassed or beholden to unequal deals. For multinational corporations, particularly those with heavy exposure to regulated, integrated markets, this world poses challenges. Standards may diverge, supply chains could become more brittle, and legal protections more uneven. “The cost of doing business in a fractured world is rising,” observed Sean Doherty, Head of International Trade at the World Economic Forum. Impact on the Commodities Business Nowhere is this more acutely felt than in the physical commodities sector. Every link in the chain—from sourcing and procurement, to shipping and logistics, warehousing, distribution, and payment—is being reshaped. Sourcing and Purchasing: Commodity traders are already grappling with shifting rules of origin and the politicisation of supply sources. Sanctions regimes are proliferating. In a bilateral world, access to resources becomes a function of diplomacy, not just price. Shipping and Logistics: The re-routing of goods due to conflict (e.g., Red Sea disruptions), trade realignments, or regulatory divergence increases costs and complexity. Fragmented maritime standards and port regulations introduce new bottlenecks. Warehousing and Distribution: Cross-border movement of goods increasingly requires duplicative compliance and diversified infrastructure. Regional hubs may supplant global distribution centres. Payment Systems: The rise of alternative payment architectures—such as China’s CIPS, Russia’s SPFS, or blockchain-based systems—reflects a move away from SWIFT and the USD-dominated order. In a bilateral world, currency risk and payment friction increase. As Yanis Varoufakis has noted, “In the absence of a global monetary anchor, transactional trust becomes a geopolitical instrument.” Banking in the Bilateral Age Traditional banking systems—designed for a globalised, rules-based framework—are straining. Compliance burdens are rising, correspondent banking relationships are being severed, and KYC/AML enforcement is becoming both more politicised and decentralised. Financing trade in a bilateral world demands agility, robust risk management, and increasingly, localised financial infrastructure. “The global economy is decoupling into spheres of influence,” said Barack Obama in a 2024 interview. “If institutions don’t adapt, they will become irrelevant.” The Road Ahead: Timeline and Turbulence This shift is not a flick of a switch but a process—likely to […]
Up to the Challenge: Russell Brill Completes IRONMAN Hamburg
Gapuma is proud to share the story of Russell Brill, our Director of Purchasing, who recently undertook one of the world’s most demanding endurance events — IRONMAN Hamburg — in support of Oak View School, a specialist institution for children with complex learning needs. Thanks to generous support from colleagues, friends, and the wider community, Russell has so far raised over £8,000, with contributions still being received via his JustGiving page. Ironman which involves a 3.8 km swim, 180 km cycle, and a full marathon — all within a single day — is widely considered the most physically demanding and gruelling challenge in sport. Over a nine-month period, Russell undertook a rigorous training programme, covering: 149 km swimming 2,935 km cycling 1,015 km running On race day, he delivered a solid and consistent performance: Within the his age category, Russell’s results placed him well in the top half of finishers, in a race known not only for its physical demands but the mental challenge it presents. At Gapuma, we believe in empowering our people to contribute beyond the workplace. Russell’s effort reminds us that commitment, endurance and purpose can combine to create meaningful change. We extend our deepest thanks to Russell for his example and to all those who have supported this initiative.
Belgrade Gears Up for Expo 2027: A Catalyst for Economic Growth and Global Recognition
29th May 2025 Belgrade is set to host Expo 2027 from 15 May to 15 August 2027, marking a significant milestone as the first world exposition in the former Yugoslavia. With the theme “Play for Humanity: Sport and Music for All,” the Expo aims to showcase the unifying power of play, sport, and music in fostering global connections and innovation. The Expo is anticipated to attract over 4 million visitors and participation from more than 100 countries, positioning Serbia as a modern, innovative hub on the global stage. The event is expected to serve as a catalyst for Serbia’s economic development, with investments in infrastructure, tourism, and cultural institutions. In alignment with this national momentum, Gapuma has been expanding its business activities in Serbia and the surrounding region. Established in 2017, Gapuma Serbia focuses on the sale of grains and has recently invested in a 22,000-tonne silo distribution centre in Novi Sad, enhancing grain distribution across Serbia and Europe. This investment underscores Gapuma’s commitment to fostering trade and economic development in the region. As Serbia prepares for Expo 2027, the synergy between national initiatives and private sector investments like Gapuma’s is poised to redefine the country’s economic landscape and international image.
Jubilee Drilling Resumes: Tullow Signals Bold New Phase for Ghana’s Energy Future
28th May 2025 Tullow Ghana and its partners have announced the recommencement of drilling operations in the Jubilee Field, signalling renewed investment and long-term confidence in Ghana’s energy sector. This phased two-year programme aims to enhance production efficiency and output in one of West Africa’s most strategically important oil fields. This new campaign follows the early and cost-effective completion of Tullow’s previous four-year drilling programme, which delivered 18 new wells by December 2024—six months ahead of schedule and under budget. The operation was widely commended for its strong safety record, operational discipline, and effective project management. The new drilling effort will continue into 2026, with additional activity planned for November 2025. Tullow aims to surpass its earlier achievements by applying improved drilling technologies and management techniques. Tullow Ghana Managing Director, Jean-Médard Madama, remarked: “The restart of drilling marks a major milestone for us. It demonstrates not only our ongoing commitment to Ghana’s energy future but also our confidence in the potential of this maturing field to generate enduring value.” The Jubilee Field remains a vital contributor to Ghana’s energy output and fiscal base, even as it matures. The new campaign seeks to maximise this potential, creating opportunities across the value chain—from upstream exploration and drilling services to downstream logistics and infrastructure support. Tullow’s recent 16-day maintenance operation at Jubilee was successfully completed to upgrade systems and ensure risk mitigation ahead of renewed drilling efforts. For strategic service providers like Gapuma, this renewed activity in Ghana presents substantial contingent opportunities—particularly in supply chain resilience, logistics coordination, and value-added support to ensure sustained operational excellence.
Gapuma and Chevron Oronite Deliver: Lubricants. Insight. Impact.
27th May 2025 Gapuma Group’s GLB division, in collaboration with Chevron Oronite, recently hosted a high-impact technical seminar in Lagos, bringing together major stakeholders from across Nigeria’s lubricants industry for a week of engagement, knowledge sharing, and strategic dialogue. The main seminar, held on 20th May, saw an outstanding turnout—with over 50 delegates from 21 companies in attendance, many of whom joined despite not having confirmed in advance. Notable participants included representatives from NNPC, Total, Ammasco, Delta Lubricants, Ardova, and BESTAF, among others. Chevron Oronite’s visiting team—Daren Barnes, Benjamin Boulay, and Eric De Goustine—delivered a series of detailed and insightful presentations. The topics covered included: Chevron Oronite Global Overview Market Trends and Heavy Duty Lubricants Power Transmission Fluid / Automatic Gear Oil Passenger Car Motor Oil / Hydraulic Oil Motorcycle Oil / Tractor Hydraulic Fluid Automatic Transmission Fluid The Importance of a Quality Viscosity Index Improver Cost Calculation and Efficiency The audience responded with enthusiasm, particularly during the Q&A sessions, where participation was lively and questions reflected a strong technical interest. Feedback from attendees highlighted the quality and relevance of the content, with many delegates leaving with valuable takeaways for their respective organisations. The Chevron Oronite team expressed their appreciation for the professional arrangements and warm hospitality provided throughout their visit. The success of the event is a testament to Gapuma Group’s commitment to excellence and collaboration within the lubricants sector. Gapuma’s own team— Prakash Ramchandani, Thompson Longe, and Akash Suhanda—played a key role in the seamless execution of the seminar. The event reinforces Gapuma’s role as a trusted industry partner dedicated to advancing technical expertise and strengthening relationships across the region. We extend our sincere thanks to all attendees and look forward to building on the momentum of this successful collaboration.
Bridging 6,000 Miles: South Africa’s Dave Steward Visits Gapuma HQ in London
Bridging 6,000 Miles: South Africa’s Dave Steward Visits Gapuma HQ in London 22nd May 2025 Gapuma was pleased to welcome Dave Steward, one of our dynamic sales associates from South Africa, to our Head Office in London this week for a focused three-day fact-finding mission. Dave plays a pivotal role in driving growth across southern Africa, a region that now contributes around 10% of Gapuma’s annual turnover. His visit marks a vital step in aligning regional operations with the company’s wider global ethos. “Being here has been about more than just meetings,” Dave explained. “It’s about truly understanding the culture, brand values and working practices at the heart of Gapuma. My goal is to take that energy and insight back to South Africa — to help our team there feel more connected to the wider business and to apply what I’ve learnt to strengthen our operations.” Over the course of the visit, Dave sat down with senior managers across key departments, delved into the company’s commercial and compliance processes, and explored how Gapuma’s values are embedded in its day-to-day operations. By observing the rhythm of life at HQ, Dave is helping close the 6,000-mile gap between the UK and South Africa. Reflecting on his trip, he said: “This visit has been incredibly valuable. I’ll be going back with a notebook full of ideas, a better sense of the company’s strategic direction, and a renewed sense of purpose. There’s so much happening here that can feed directly into the growing success story we’re building in South Africa.” With global collaboration at the heart of Gapuma’s success, Dave’s visit is a reminder that international distance is no barrier when teams are united by vision, purpose, and shared ambition.