Nvidia’s Earnings Calm AI-Bubble Jitters — But Contradictions in the AI Race Remain
21st November 2025 Nvidia’s latest quarterly results delivered a decisive message to global markets: demand for AI infrastructure is not only real but accelerating at pace. Strong data-centre revenues lifted technology indices and eased near-term concerns that the sector was tipping into bubble territory. Yet the optimism highlights a deeper contradiction within the trillion-dollar AI race. Companies are channelling unprecedented capital into compute, chips and cloud capacity, while uncertainty persists over where long-term value will ultimately be captured. Investors remain divided on who stands to benefit and whether structural bottlenecks — from supply-chain constraints and skills shortages to rising energy demand — will curb the very growth that markets are pricing in. For commodity markets, Nvidia’s performance is not merely a technology story. It underscores the physical foundations of AI. Sharp growth in demand for advanced chips is increasing pressure on raw-materials sourcing, logistics networks and energy infrastructure. Businesses treating AI as a purely digital revolution risk overlooking the material inputs that enable it. At Gapuma Group, our approach remains clear: assess AI-driven demand through a supply-chain lens, examine exposure to single-supplier chokepoints, and strengthen ethical, transparent sourcing as infrastructure investment intensifies. In short, participate in the opportunity whilst hedging the structural risks beneath it.
The Global Ethanol Rush: Energy Security Meets Agricultural Reality
19th November 2025 The global ethanol market is undergoing rapid and far-reaching expansion, driven by government mandates and a growing focus on energy security. Yet behind the headlines about renewable fuels lies a far more intricate story—one shaped by agricultural pressures, shifting trade flows and the practical constraints of supply chains. Brazil is leading innovation in maize-based ethanol, with production expected to reach 30% of total output by 2026–27, equating to 10.6 billion litres. The economics are increasingly favourable: maize ethanol costs around BRL 1.85 per litre compared with BRL 2.45 for sugarcane, while valuable byproducts strengthen margins. Still, concerns over biomass feedstock availability for steam generation are becoming more pronounced. Indonesia is preparing to implement mandatory ethanol blending by 2028, aiming for a 5% mix to displace 5% of its 22.8 million kilolitre fuel imports. At COP30, Pertamina highlighted Brazil’s success as a model for reducing dependence on fossil fuels through bioethanol. However, the challenges are significant. In India, maize farmers are calling for a “Maize Control Order” after prices fell ₹600 per quintal below the minimum support price. Ethanol-driven maize diversion has transformed India from a 3.7 MT exporter into a projected 1 MT importer, pushing prices from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000 per tonne. Livestock sectors are now urging duty-free access to GM maize to safeguard feed supplies. Indonesia faces its own hurdles, including inconsistent raw material availability, volatile pricing, and limited infrastructure for production and distribution. For a global commodities partner like Gapuma Group, the ethanol boom represents both opportunity and complexity in equal measure. The reshaping of agricultural supply chains across multiple continents is creating heightened demand for strategic procurement, logistics capability and real-time market intelligence. Long-term success will depend on a clear understanding of policy drivers, farmer economics and infrastructure readiness—factors that will ultimately determine which national programmes deliver on their ambitions.
Gapuma Switzerland at the Sharp End of Global Methanol Markets
6th November 2025 Fabrice Brunet, Managing Director of Gapuma Switzerland, travelled to Singapore this week to attend the International Methanol Conference 2025 (IMC 2025), held from 4th–6th November at the Pan Pacific Singapore. The Industry’s Annual ParliamentSince 2006, this annual gathering—organised by MMSA for the IMPCA International Methanol Producers & Consumers Association—has brought together suppliers, consumers, traders, and service providers in what has become the methanol industry’s most influential forum. In a year marked by market uncertainty, pricing pressure, shifting trade flows, and geopolitical tensions, IMC 2025 convened global leaders across two intensive days. Crucially, it remains the venue for Asia’s annual contract negotiations—where meaningful business is often concluded in the margins, over coffee and corridor conversations. Why Singapore MattersThere is a reason this meeting is held in Singapore rather than Zurich or Houston. The city-state’s rise as Asia’s foremost energy and commodities hub reflects broader shifts in global economic gravity. Its regulatory sophistication, logistical strengths, and strategic geography make it the natural home for an industry increasingly shaped by Asian demand. Methanol: The Quiet DisruptorWhile public debate tends to focus on hydrogen and batteries, methanol continues to reshape markets with far less fanfare. Serving both as a vital chemical feedstock and an emerging marine fuel, it occupies a unique space—rooted in the traditional hydrocarbon economy yet integral to global decarbonisation strategies. Why Gapuma Prioritises This EventGapuma’s presence at IMC 2025 reflects strategic priorities: access to market intelligence that differentiates opportunity from risk; relationship-building with the producers, consumers, and traders who influence global flows; close monitoring of developments in renewable methanol; and an understanding of Asian dynamics that increasingly define the sector’s future. As Gapuma expands its footprint in renewable fuels and chemical feedstocks, events like IMC 2025 provide invaluable context. The insights gathered in Singapore will directly inform our trading strategies and long-term positioning in markets where being six months early can look perilously similar to being six months late. We extend our thanks to MMSA and IMPCA for another outstanding conference.
Nigeria’s Energy Transformation: Market Competition Drives Policy Shift
5th November 2025 Nigeria is signalling its willingness to sell state-owned refineries as the government seeks to stimulate competition in the downstream sector—marking a notable shift in the country’s broader energy strategy. The development follows President Tinubu’s approval of a 15% import duty on refined petroleum products, aimed at safeguarding recent multi-billion-dollar investments in domestic refining. The Dangote Refinery now reports production of more than 45 million litres of petrol and 25 million litres of diesel per day, surpassing Nigeria’s internal consumption requirements. A Strategic CrossroadsThe Nigerian National Petroleum Company’s four state-owned refineries—despite a combined capacity of 445,000 barrels per day—have processed virtually no crude for decades, even after billions were allocated for repairs. Key stakeholders, including the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association, are calling for full privatisation to enhance efficiency and reduce recurrent government expenditure. Critics argue that the state-owned facilities remain “a pure drain on the Nigerian economy”, stressing that private management would curb corruption, ensure accountability, and foster healthy competition with the Dangote operation. The Monopoly DebateFuel traders caution that, if mismanaged, the new tariff regime could stifle fuel imports and create a de facto refining monopoly—potentially exposing Nigeria to fresh rounds of fuel scarcity. Policymakers therefore face the delicate task of protecting domestic refiners while preserving competitive dynamics in the market. For Gapuma Group, which operates extensively across West Africa’s energy landscape, this policy shift highlights the scale and speed of transformation within Nigeria’s downstream sector—presenting both opportunities and complexities for regional fuel trading and logistics. The outcome of Nigeria’s privatisation debate will shape energy flows across West Africa for generations.
Strengthening Our Biofuels Vision
— Introducing Charles Percheron 4th November 2025 Gapuma is delighted to announce that Charles Percheron has joined our Switzerland office in Nyon as Senior Biodiesel Trader. Charles will play a central role in expanding Gapuma’s global biofuels footprint, strengthening our position in biodiesel and sustainable feedstocks. With more than fourteen years’ experience across physical and derivative commodity trading, brokerage, and operations, he brings an outstanding track record of performance, innovation, and market insight. Based in Nyon, Charles combines a deep understanding of biodiesel markets with a sophisticated, multi-layered approach to business development and a passion for data-driven, forward-looking trading strategies. His appointment reinforces our strategic commitment to the energy transition and to scaling sustainable commodities across international supply chains. As we continue to invest in future-focused fuels, we look forward to accelerating global progress in sustainability and low-carbon logistics. Please join us in welcoming Charles to the Gapuma family and wishing him every success in this exciting new chapter.
Markets Eye Fiscal Tightening as Commodities Traders Brace for Ripple Effects
6th August 2025 London’s stock markets opened higher on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% in early trading. Yet beneath the initial gains, warning signs are emerging for the real economy — particularly for commodities traders. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to implement “moderate but sustained” tax rises to address a projected £41.2 billion shortfall under her fiscal stability rule. While the National Institute of Economic & Social Research has lifted its 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%, it warns of a “deteriorating” fiscal position. For physical traders such as Gapuma Group, the risks are clear. Fiscal tightening could slow demand for construction materials, chemicals, and energy products. However, the UK’s record pace of renewable energy installations signals longer-term growth in demand for critical minerals and battery components. Political risk is adding to market tension. The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Whitcroft, and Russian officials — scheduled just days before a ceasefire deadline in Ukraine — is fuelling uncertainty in energy markets and raising concerns over global shipping routes. Meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields point to tighter credit conditions, a key challenge for traders reliant on trade finance and freight hedging. At Gapuma, we continue to navigate these intersecting pressures, maintaining resilience in our supply chain while delivering value across global markets. SEO Meta Description:Fiscal tightening, political risk, and shifting demand patterns are testing commodities traders. Gapuma monitors global pressures while adapting to long-term opportunities.
Strengthening Ties in West Africa: A Strategic Visit to Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana
22nd July 2025 Gapuma Group Managing Director, Jack Bardakjian, recently completed a high-level visit to two of our key West African markets — Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana — accompanied by our Senior Biofuels Trader, Rafael Fraletti. The visit reaffirmed our long-standing commitment to building sustainable partnerships, supporting local infrastructure, and reinforcing operational excellence in the region. As our global portfolio evolves in line with the energy transition, West Africa is playing an increasingly vital role in our biofuels and logistics strategy. With Rafael based in Gapuma’s Swiss Office — the nerve centre of our biofuels operation — this mission combined executive leadership with commercial expertise on the ground. From strategic meetings with clients to warehouse visits in Abidjan and Accra, the trip served to deepen relationships, assess new opportunities, and ensure our growth remains aligned with local realities and regional ambitions. These in-person engagements also reflect Gapuma’s operational philosophy: that reliability in global supply chains is built not just on trade routes and systems, but on trust, presence, and long-term commitment. By maintaining close contact with partners across West Africa, we continue to enhance the resilience of our operations — from Geneva to Ghana, and every step in between. As the world shifts toward cleaner, more responsible energy sources, Gapuma remains at the forefront of ethical trading and sustainable innovation. This visit marks another meaningful milestone in our shared journey toward a smarter, more inclusive global energy future.
Biofuels, Policy, and the Changing Dynamics of Soybean Oil
Source: Reuters / USDA Report 16th July 2025 A quiet transformation is underway in the global soybean oil market — one shaped by tightening U.S. biofuel policy and surging domestic demand. According to the latest USDA figures, over half of all U.S. soybean oil will be consumed by domestic biofuel producers in 2025/26. Usage is forecast to reach an unprecedented 15.5 billion pounds — a year-on-year increase of more than 26%. In contrast, U.S. exports of soybean oil are expected to fall by nearly 75%. This shift reflects a confluence of regulatory and economic forces, including: ✅ Expanded blending mandates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency✅ Restrictions on renewable fuel imports and non-domestic feedstocks✅ Enhanced clean fuel tax credits and state-level incentives Together, these changes elevate the role of domestically sourced vegetable oils — particularly soybean and canola — as cornerstone feedstocks in the global energy mix. For stakeholders across the agri-commodities, biofuels, and renewables sectors, this signals a reshaping of priorities and pressures. Procurement strategies, trade flows, and refining capacity are all being recalibrated to meet the new demands of the clean energy transition. At Gapuma Group, we continue to track these developments closely. Understanding the interplay between global trade, energy security, and sustainability is central to our work — and to the future of responsible supply.
LNG Freight Market: Signs of Life, But Fundamentals Still Fragile
9th July The second quarter of 2025 brought a temporary lift in LNG freight rates, briefly rekindling hopes of a broader recovery. Spot market activity picked up, geopolitical tensions nudged rates upward, and a few well-timed tenders added to the movement. But beneath the surface, little has changed. The fundamentals remain weighed down by chronic oversupply and a steady stream of newbuild LNG carriers—more than fifty of which are still scheduled to hit the water this year. At Gapuma, we recognise the signs of a market still wrestling with structural imbalance. While Q2’s flurry may have offered tactical opportunities for agile players, it does not herald a true reversal. The market remains oversaturated, particularly as shorter voyage lengths in the Atlantic basin reduce tonne-mile demand, allowing vessels to cycle faster and re-enter the charter pool sooner. Meanwhile, the rate volatility we’ve seen—rising in late June, only to soften again weeks later—is more a reflection of fleet repositioning and risk premiums than renewed fundamentals. Still, there are positive signals to monitor. Asian demand continues its gradual climb, and Europe remains a dynamic outlet for flexible LNG volumes. Political flashpoints—especially in the Middle East and around key maritime chokepoints—can rapidly absorb spare tonnage and temporarily tighten supply. But these moments remain episodic and should not be confused with sustained recovery. What matters now is not the noise, but how we respond to it. Gapuma continues to prioritise discipline in cargo allocation, precision in market timing, and flexibility in freight strategy. As others chase the latest bump, we’re preparing for the long game—poised for when the market begins to rebalance in earnest.
🌍 Crude Oil Instability Renews Debate on Energy Strategy
17th June 2025 Volatility in global oil markets has once again come into sharp focus as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Crude prices have surged following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, pushing Brent close to the USD 80 mark—a level widely considered a threshold at which previously uneconomic sources of oil, such as shale and fracked reserves, start to re-enter the conversation. This development comes amid continued energy disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and increasingly fractured relations with Russia. As supply chains are tested and markets jitter, the conversation around energy resilience, security, and strategy is growing ever more urgent. At Gapuma, we remain mindful of the complex and often polarising nature of energy policy, particularly where fossil fuels such as fracked oil and gas are concerned. While fracking remains a subject of intense debate—on environmental, regulatory, and social grounds—what is undeniable is that rising oil prices tend to breathe new life into its economic case. At price points above USD 80 per barrel, advocates of fracking are likely to become more vocal, and investment interest could follow. However, it is essential to situate this debate within a broader strategic context. Short-term responses to supply shocks must not overshadow the longer-term imperative to create a more balanced and sustainable energy mix. Carbon-based fuels—while still an important part of global supply—must gradually yield to lower-emission alternatives that offer both environmental and geopolitical stability. Battery technologies, scalable renewables, green hydrogen, and smart grid infrastructure will all play increasingly pivotal roles in shaping the energy systems of tomorrow. These technologies reduce dependency on volatile imports, enhance domestic energy security, and contribute meaningfully to decarbonisation targets. As political analyst Marwan Bishara noted, “Energy has become the lifeblood of geopolitical power—a single disruption can reshape global alliances.” That reality has been laid bare in both Eastern Europe and the Gulf, and it continues to shape decision-making across boardrooms and governments alike. Reflecting on this moment, Jack Bardakjian, Gapuma’s Group Managing Director, said: “We need to be very judicious in the choices we make today to guarantee our energy security in the medium to longer term.” With the situation in Iran remaining fluid and the risk of further destabilisation high, the pressure on energy markets is likely to persist. Should a leadership vacuum emerge or regional conflict escalate, we could see further strain on oil flows and a renewed push by certain sectors for domestic energy sources, including shale and fracked hydrocarbons. Nonetheless, the long-term trajectory must point toward a healthier, more diversified global energy portfolio—one in which carbon-based fuels represent a smaller share and sustainability plays a greater role in both energy policy and investment decisions. Gapuma remains committed to providing insight and clarity at this critical junction, as markets, policymakers, and partners navigate the path ahead.
📊 UK Spending Review 2025: Cautious Progress, but a Missed Opportunity for Business Confidence
11th June 2025 The recent spending review by Chancellor Rachel Reeves marks a significant moment in the evolution of the UK’s fiscal and investment strategy. Framed as a pivot toward long-term resilience and sustainable growth, the review sets out day-to-day and capital spending plans that seek to stabilise public services, unlock infrastructure development, and distinguish Labour’s economic stance from that of previous governments. From the vantage point of a business such as Gapuma, working across international trade, sustainable fuels, and alternative energy solutions, the review presents both encouraging signals and persistent concerns. While there is much to welcome in the renewed attention to capital investment and decarbonised infrastructure, several underlying issues—most notably the continuing burden of elevated employer National Insurance—remain unresolved. Strategic Infrastructure: Welcome Commitments, Uneven Benefits The headline figure of £113bn in additional capital investment over the next four years is perhaps the most striking element of the review. It includes support for flagship infrastructure projects, such as £14.2bn for the Sizewell C nuclear development, and £15bn for improvements to public transport outside London. For a company like Gapuma, whose activities touch on low-emission logistics, biofuel trading, and cross-border sustainable energy supply, such investment is welcome. Modernising regional infrastructure and transport networks could catalyse demand for cleaner fuels, more transparent supply chains, and decarbonisation services aligned with Net Zero targets. However, it’s important to note that this capital boost is front-loaded—meaning much of the new spending is concentrated in the early years of this parliament. With borrowing costs rising and fiscal headroom narrowing, there is reasonable uncertainty about how much of this investment pipeline will be sustained, particularly for emerging sectors that do not yet have the institutional weight of legacy industries. A Balanced Approach, but Policy Volatility Remains a Risk The Chancellor was careful to frame this review as a departure from austerity without crossing into fiscal recklessness. Real-terms departmental spending will rise by 1.2% annually, and capital spending by 1.3%, modest increases that reflect a constrained environment shaped by weak economic growth and elevated public debt. That said, businesses are still contending with the effects of frequent and abrupt policy reversals in recent years. From energy pricing frameworks to regulatory treatment of alternative fuels, the policy landscape has often shifted faster than business planning cycles can accommodate. For companies operating across borders and across sectors, stability and predictability are as valuable as funding. A clearer, more dependable framework for industrial decarbonisation, cross-border energy trade, and green investment remains a high priority—particularly in the absence of significant new policy instruments in this review. National Insurance: The Missing Reversal Perhaps the most conspicuous omission in this otherwise comprehensive review is any move to reverse the unprecedented hike in employer National Insurance contributions. For many businesses, this remains a major obstacle to growth, workforce expansion, and strategic investment in skills. In a post-pandemic, low-growth economy, where talent acquisition and labour market participation are key to resilience, the continuation of this higher rate undermines confidence. It directly disincentivises hiring at the very moment when investment in people should complement investment in infrastructure. Jack Bardakjian, CEO of Gapuma Group, commented: “Gapuma remains committed to the shared enterprise of making the British economy prosperous and forward-thinking—but it needs government to share in the heavy lifting, instead of always seeing business as a backstop and fiscal fail safe. This cycle of raiding corporate coffers has to end, or else confidence will ebb still further and mitigate against the growth Reeves’s plans require.” Conclusion: Strategic Direction Set, Delivery Now Critical Reeves’s spending review does not lack ambition. It provides a roadmap for critical investment in infrastructure, seeks to safeguard key public services, and attempts to restore economic credibility through consistent messaging. But for the private sector to fully engage and invest alongside government, a stronger emphasis on long-term policy coherence, hiring incentives, and stable taxation will be essential. Gapuma remains committed to working at the forefront of sustainable trade, alternative fuels, and the energy transition. We will continue to advocate for the policy clarity and investment conditions required to drive meaningful, market-led progress in these areas.