🛢️ GAPUMA GROUP | MARKET INTELLIGENCE | 20 MAY 2026
Hormuz, Beijing and Moscow: The Geopolitics of Oil Are Being Rewritten in Real Time The movement of two Chinese supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz today – the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, carrying approximately 4 million barrels of crude after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months – has sent an immediate and unmistakeable signal to commodity markets. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news. This is not merely a shipping story. It is a geopolitical statement. The vessels’ passage comes as President Trump and President Xi concluded a two-day summit in Beijing, with a White House official describing the talks as “good.” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China would work behind the scenes to help reopen the strait, noting that Beijing has “a much bigger interest in reopening the strait than the US does.” Beijing, characteristically, said nothing publicly about Hormuz – Chinese state media reported only that the leaders “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation.” Silence, in diplomacy, is often the loudest language. Iran has reportedly sought to implement a toll system for vessels crossing Hormuz – a brazen assertion of sovereign authority over an international waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. That Chinese-flagged supertankers are now moving freely while broader restrictions remain in place is a pointed reminder of where true leverage lies. Meanwhile, closer to home, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorised the import of Russian-refined diesel and jet fuel into the UK indefinitely, alongside a temporary licence permitting the maritime transport of Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal terminals. The government frames it as pragmatism. Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson told Sky News the government was “acting pragmatically to insulate British citizens from the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.” Critics – not least opposition leader Kemi Badenoch – see it differently: as analysts have noted, from Moscow’s perspective, it demonstrates that Western countries are “not that committed to a sanctions regime” when their own consumers feel the pinch. The broader picture is stark. Global oil supply has declined by 12.8 mb/d in total since February, with output from Gulf countries affected by the Strait’s closure running 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. The IEA projects a decline of 3.9 mb/d on average across 2026, assuming flows gradually resume from June. The United Nations has already cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% this year, against an estimated 3% last year, citing higher energy costs and weaker trade. For commodities and futures desks, the key questions now are whether today’s tanker movements represent a genuine reopening or a bilateral Chinese carve-out – and whether the gap between the two matters less than markets think. Wood Mackenzie has estimated Brent could approach $200 a barrel if the Strait remains largely shut until the end of the year. The downside scenario, by contrast, assumes a rapid diplomatic resolution that supply chains are ill-prepared to absorb smoothly. At Gapuma Group, we are watching these developments closely across energy, commodities and futures markets. The rules of the game are changing – and the players setting them are not all where they used to be. For market intelligence, trading insights and strategic analysis, connect with the Gapuma Group team.
TRUMP’S IRAN TARIFF GAMBIT: A CALCULATED RISK THAT COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL TRADE
13 January 2026 Amid the chaos continuing to envelop and ravage Iran, where a large-scale protests sparked by currency collapse have been met by a brutal crackdown by authorities—with large-scale deaths and mass arrests reported—President Trump has announced immediate 25% tariffs on nations conducting business with Iran. The move introduces a new element of uncertainty into global commerce, with potentially significant ramifications for the hard-won US-China trade détente. The tariffs target major economies including China, India, Turkey, the UAE and Brazil—all substantial Iranian trading partners. China faces particular exposure, having imported approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports through independent refineries whilst maintaining over $9 billion in documented trade. The new levy could push cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods from the current 30.8% to approximately 56%, threatening the fragile truce established at last October’s South Korea summit that granted Washington access to critical rare earth minerals. The policy’s ambiguity—Trump provided no details on what constitutes “doing business” or how enforcement will proceed—creates immediate complications for global supply chains. India’s $1.34 billion bilateral trade with Iran, Turkey’s $5.68 billion commerce across their shared border, and Brazil’s $3 billion agricultural exports all fall within potential scope. The UAE’s role as a re-export hub for Iranian goods adds further complexity to implementation. For China specifically, the stakes extend beyond trade metrics. Beijing secured rare earth export agreements and a presidential visit to China scheduled for April as part of the détente. Trump administration adviser Peter Navarro previously cautioned against escalating Chinese tariffs further, warning “we don’t want to get to a point where we hurt ourselves.” Whether carve-outs emerge remains unclear, though the White House has yet to publish legal authority or implementation details for the Iran-related levies. As businesses navigate this evolving landscape, the incident underscores how rapidly geopolitical developments can reshape commercial calculations, requiring organisations to maintain strategic flexibility in an increasingly volatile trading environment.
China’s Gold Play: Behind the $4,000 Surge?
8th October 2025 Gold’s rise beyond $4,000 an ounce marks more than a historic price point — it highlights a deeper shift in the balance of global monetary power. China’s central bank has undertaken an exceptional run of gold purchases over the past year, increasing its holdings at a pace unmatched by its other foreign exchange activities. Yet gold still represents only around 6.7 per cent of China’s immense reserves. By comparison, the United States — the world’s largest holder of gold — maintains nearly 80 per cent of its reserves in bullion, with a stockpile almost four times larger than China’s. This disparity is significant. For Beijing, accelerating its gold acquisitions is not merely an exercise in diversification. It forms part of a broader strategy: to reduce its exposure to the dollar and strengthen its position in an international system long shaped by American financial dominance. With foreign exchange reserves almost three times greater than Japan’s — the world’s second-largest — and roughly eleven times greater than America’s own reserves, China has both the scale and the strategic intent to alter the global financial equilibrium. Gold’s ascent past $4,000 therefore extends beyond traditional concerns such as inflation hedging or interest rate expectations. It reflects a wider contest centred on currency power, credibility, and the architecture of global finance itself.
Goodbye Petrodollar?
The SCO’s Growing Influence on Commodities 02 September 2025 The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) may be familiar by name, but few appreciate the scale of its impact. Representing 43% of the world’s population and nearly a quarter of global GDP, the SCO is quietly reshaping global trade and commodity flows. Since the Ukraine war, trade patterns have shifted dramatically. G7 exports to Russia have collapsed, while Chinese exports have surged—transportation equipment alone is up nearly 500%. India, previously minimally reliant on Russian crude, now sources the majority of its oil from Moscow. Energy and commodity corridors are pivoting east and south. Perhaps most strikingly, SCO members are increasingly trading oil and commodities outside the dollar system, challenging financial infrastructures that have underpinned global markets for decades. For commodities players, this is not a distant geopolitical story. It represents a live reordering of supply chains, pricing systems, and financial flows, with China emerging as a primary beneficiary. Gapuma continues to monitor these developments closely, ensuring that our operations and global partnerships remain agile, informed, and aligned with evolving market realities.