TRUMP’S IRAN TARIFF GAMBIT: A CALCULATED RISK THAT COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL TRADE
13 January 2026 Amid the chaos continuing to envelop and ravage Iran, where a large-scale protests sparked by currency collapse have been met by a brutal crackdown by authorities—with large-scale deaths and mass arrests reported—President Trump has announced immediate 25% tariffs on nations conducting business with Iran. The move introduces a new element of uncertainty into global commerce, with potentially significant ramifications for the hard-won US-China trade détente. The tariffs target major economies including China, India, Turkey, the UAE and Brazil—all substantial Iranian trading partners. China faces particular exposure, having imported approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports through independent refineries whilst maintaining over $9 billion in documented trade. The new levy could push cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods from the current 30.8% to approximately 56%, threatening the fragile truce established at last October’s South Korea summit that granted Washington access to critical rare earth minerals. The policy’s ambiguity—Trump provided no details on what constitutes “doing business” or how enforcement will proceed—creates immediate complications for global supply chains. India’s $1.34 billion bilateral trade with Iran, Turkey’s $5.68 billion commerce across their shared border, and Brazil’s $3 billion agricultural exports all fall within potential scope. The UAE’s role as a re-export hub for Iranian goods adds further complexity to implementation. For China specifically, the stakes extend beyond trade metrics. Beijing secured rare earth export agreements and a presidential visit to China scheduled for April as part of the détente. Trump administration adviser Peter Navarro previously cautioned against escalating Chinese tariffs further, warning “we don’t want to get to a point where we hurt ourselves.” Whether carve-outs emerge remains unclear, though the White House has yet to publish legal authority or implementation details for the Iran-related levies. As businesses navigate this evolving landscape, the incident underscores how rapidly geopolitical developments can reshape commercial calculations, requiring organisations to maintain strategic flexibility in an increasingly volatile trading environment.
China’s Gold Play: Behind the $4,000 Surge?
8th October 2025 Gold’s rise beyond $4,000 an ounce marks more than a historic price point — it highlights a deeper shift in the balance of global monetary power. China’s central bank has undertaken an exceptional run of gold purchases over the past year, increasing its holdings at a pace unmatched by its other foreign exchange activities. Yet gold still represents only around 6.7 per cent of China’s immense reserves. By comparison, the United States — the world’s largest holder of gold — maintains nearly 80 per cent of its reserves in bullion, with a stockpile almost four times larger than China’s. This disparity is significant. For Beijing, accelerating its gold acquisitions is not merely an exercise in diversification. It forms part of a broader strategy: to reduce its exposure to the dollar and strengthen its position in an international system long shaped by American financial dominance. With foreign exchange reserves almost three times greater than Japan’s — the world’s second-largest — and roughly eleven times greater than America’s own reserves, China has both the scale and the strategic intent to alter the global financial equilibrium. Gold’s ascent past $4,000 therefore extends beyond traditional concerns such as inflation hedging or interest rate expectations. It reflects a wider contest centred on currency power, credibility, and the architecture of global finance itself.
Goodbye Petrodollar?
The SCO’s Growing Influence on Commodities 02 September 2025 The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) may be familiar by name, but few appreciate the scale of its impact. Representing 43% of the world’s population and nearly a quarter of global GDP, the SCO is quietly reshaping global trade and commodity flows. Since the Ukraine war, trade patterns have shifted dramatically. G7 exports to Russia have collapsed, while Chinese exports have surged—transportation equipment alone is up nearly 500%. India, previously minimally reliant on Russian crude, now sources the majority of its oil from Moscow. Energy and commodity corridors are pivoting east and south. Perhaps most strikingly, SCO members are increasingly trading oil and commodities outside the dollar system, challenging financial infrastructures that have underpinned global markets for decades. For commodities players, this is not a distant geopolitical story. It represents a live reordering of supply chains, pricing systems, and financial flows, with China emerging as a primary beneficiary. Gapuma continues to monitor these developments closely, ensuring that our operations and global partnerships remain agile, informed, and aligned with evolving market realities.