Starmer Bets Big on India: Mission to Double Bilateral Trade by 2030
AP-POOL photo by Kin-Cheung 7th October 2025 As Prime Minister Keir Starmer embarks on his first official visit to India (8–9 October), the scale and ambition of the delegation send a clear message: the United Kingdom now views India as a central pillar of its long-term trade strategy. The recently concluded UK–India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) represents a decisive turning point. More than a conventional trade deal, it signals a strategic shift — cutting tariffs on over 90 per cent of goods and widening market access across both goods and services. Negotiators on both sides are already focused on an even greater objective: doubling bilateral trade by 2030. To put this in context, trade in goods and services in the year to March 2025 was valued at approximately £44.1 billion. Doubling that figure would push the relationship towards, or beyond, £88 billion — a striking illustration of the shared ambition now driving both nations. The breadth of the delegation accompanying the Prime Minister underscores the significance of the mission. More than one hundred business leaders, university vice-chancellors, and figures from technology, culture, and innovation are travelling to India. This is a working visit, not a symbolic tour — designed to secure agreements, strengthen partnerships, and build the foundations for deep, long-term economic engagement. It reflects a marked shift in mindset: India is no longer treated as a secondary market but as a cornerstone of the UK’s future growth strategy. Symbolism will play its part when Starmer meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Mumbai — India’s financial powerhouse and a city emblematic of the country’s dynamism and scale. Choosing Mumbai for such a meeting highlights the central role that commerce, investment, and economic cooperation will play in the evolving partnership. The timing of the visit could hardly be more pertinent. India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy, with growth exceeding 6 per cent annually and forecast to reach as high as 8 per cent this year. Its economic momentum, demographic strength, and expanding global influence ensure it will shape the international landscape in the decades ahead. For the UK, forging a position within that story is both strategic and forward-looking. This visit is therefore about more than agreements or diplomatic ceremony. It is about signalling intent, building momentum, and recognising that the UK’s economic future will increasingly align with India’s rise on the global stage.
Shifting Sands: Libya’s New Gas Venture
28 August 2025 Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced the establishment of Jalyanah, a new company dedicated to gas exploration and production, headquartered in Benghazi. Acting chairman Masoud Suleiman outlined plans for Jalyanah to develop gas discoveries in concession MN 7, currently operated by the Arabian Gulf Oil Company. Negotiations are already under way with a major international consortium, including Eni, TotalEnergies, ADNOC, and TPAO, reflecting Libya’s ambition to forge partnerships across Europe, the Middle East, and Turkey. The initiative aims to accelerate production from undeveloped fields, addressing rising domestic demand for power and industry while reducing costly diesel dependency. It also safeguards Libya’s export commitments to Italy and protects the state budget from potential penalties. Investors face questions over viability, however. Libya remains politically divided, with the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the Government of National Stability (GNS) in Benghazi each asserting legitimacy. Any new entity based in the east inevitably raises considerations around legal clarity, governance, and contractual security. Yet there is reason for cautious optimism. By approaching the venture through a lens of enlightened self-interest, the shared objective of monetising gas reserves and meeting domestic energy needs could create common ground between east and west. In a country long hindered by division, Jalyanah may become a platform for cooperation rather than conflict. For global energy players and commodities traders, the project represents both an opportunity and a watchpoint: unlocking reserves of strategic importance while navigating a complex political landscape.
Brazil’s Market Decline Highlights Regional Risks
14 August 2025 Brazil’s financial markets experienced renewed turbulence on 13 August, with the Ibovespa index falling 0.9% to 136,687 points, reversing gains from the previous session. The decline underscores how global commodity pressures and domestic fiscal concerns are weighing on Latin America’s largest economy. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced $6 billion in temporary credit lines and tax incentives aimed at supporting exporters and cushioning tariff-related shocks. While these measures provide short-term relief, questions remain over long-term fiscal sustainability and the impact of increased spending without secured revenue streams. Commodity heavyweights Petrobras and Vale were among those affected, with share prices weakening on the back of softer oil and iron ore prices. Corporate results also reflected mixed fortunes: travel company CVC reported larger-than-expected losses, sending its shares down 10%, while construction firm MRV gained more than 6%, highlighting uneven resilience across sectors. For the wider region, Brazil’s market trajectory remains a bellwether. A sustained slowdown in its commodity sector could have knock-on effects for trade flows, investment, currency stability, and logistics networks throughout Latin America. Against the backdrop of optimism in the United States, Europe, and Asia, the caution in Latin America illustrates the region’s heightened sensitivity to Brazil’s fiscal and market dynamics — and the far-reaching implications for global supply chains.