Is comprehensive globalism over?
What the Iran War means for physical commodity traders 24 March 2026 The Financial Times has been asking hard questions about the structural shift now under way in global business – and the conclusions demand attention from anyone in physical commodities. FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf is unambiguous: “The worst case is that this will be one of the biggest shocks in the postwar period.” Meanwhile, FT columnist Tej Parikh cuts to a deeper vulnerability: “Investors have committed trillions of dollars to the technology, one of the most power-hungry inventions ever, on the assumption of ample energy supplies and a slick chip production line that can cross more than 70 borders before reaching the final consumer. But the Iran war is exposing the fragilities in the AI supply chain.” If that assumption of frictionless global logistics is now in doubt for the digital economy, it raises an equally sharp question for physical commodity traders: is the model of seamless, borderless trade still viable? The honest answer is: not unconditionally. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated that a single chokepoint can simultaneously disrupt energy, fertiliser, industrial gases and shipping insurance markets. Supply chains engineered for efficiency rather than resilience are being exposed for what they are. Three conclusions stand out. Hyper-globalised sourcing is a liability without redundancy built in. Global trade is not over, but it is being repriced around risk. And those with established local distribution networks are navigating this crisis measurably better than those dependent on long, centralised chains. Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director of Gapuma Group, is direct on this point: “Every experienced commodity trader understands that price is only half the equation – the other half is access. When the architecture of global trade is under this kind of stress, access becomes everything. Local presence, local relationships, local knowledge – these are not peripheral considerations. They are the hard infrastructure of the business.” The world will trade again. But the terms on which it does so are being rewritten. Primary source: Financial Times, 12 March 2026, and related FT reporting
The Strait That Broke the World’s Confidence
17 March 2026 The Strait of Hormuz – a corridor barely 33 miles wide at its narrowest – has not just closed to commercial traffic. It has exposed the paper-thin foundation on which the modern world’s energy economy is built. At Gapuma Group, we are watching this unfold in real time. The disruption is not abstract. It is operational. War risk insurance has been cancelled wholesale by underwriters. Freight rates on some routes have surged by over 600%. Several of our counterparties in the region cannot get cover at any premium. Ships that could move cargo are sitting still because no insurer will touch them. The numbers behind the closure are stark. Around a quarter of the world’s daily oil consumption and a fifth of its LNG pass through that single waterway. Qatar has halted LNG production. Iraq has cut crude output. Jet fuel premiums in Europe and Asia have hit record highs. TTF gas prices rallied 70% in less than a week. But beyond the immediate crisis lies the more troubling long-term question: should we still be this exposed? The Gulf states have spent the last decade building a compelling alternative model – the “Dubai model” of tourism, logistics, and technology. The World Bank and World Economic Forum were praising their economic resilience as recently as late 2025. That narrative has aged badly in a fortnight. The honest answer is that a post-oil world is desirable, inevitable – and currently unaffordable at the speed events are demanding. Renewables cannot be scaled overnight. Biofuels offer partial relief – and notably, marine biofuels have held steady where fossil fuel equivalents have spiralled. But the infrastructure, the capital, and the political will for genuine energy independence remain incomplete. For commodities trading, the lesson is blunt: diversification of supply, route, and risk is not a future aspiration. It is an immediate imperative.
Did you know you can trade lean hogs on the stock market? 🐷
25 February 2026 No, really. Alongside live cattle, oats, frozen orange juice and cocoa futures, lean hog contracts are genuinely traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – in lots of 40,000 pounds, no less. We’re not making this up. It turns out the world of commodity trading goes way beyond the gold bars and oil barrels most people picture. Here are five “exotic” soft commodities that serious traders are watching right now: ☕ Coffee – A billion daily drinkers means relentless demand. But Brazilian soil moisture levels, Vietnamese harvest delays and tropical storms all move the price. Your morning flat white is a geopolitical event. 🍫 Cocoa – In 2024, Côte d’Ivoire cut its export contracts by 40% due to poor weather. Ghana fared little better. Two countries produce half the world’s supply — so when West Africa sneezes, the chocolate market catches a cold. 🌾 Oats – Grown across the EU, Russia, Canada and Australia, oats are more globally distributed than most soft commodities. But here’s the twist: disruption in one grain market tends to ripple across all grains, because they share the same growing regions, transport networks and storage systems. 🥩 Lean hogs and live cattle – Alternative proteins are getting all the headlines. Meanwhile, global meat consumption keeps rising. Livestock futures are a quiet corner of the market that demographic trends suggest won’t stay quiet for long. 🍊 Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) – Yes, it has its own futures market. In 2024, it hit all-time highs after disease-carrying sap-sucking insects devastated crops in Brazil (which produces nearly 70% of the world’s OJ) and a series of hurricanes compounded the damage in Florida. Extraordinary volatility in the most ordinary of breakfast staples. The common thread? These markets are driven by weather, disease, geography and human appetite — not by central bank policy or tech earnings cycles. For traders and commodity professionals who understand the supply side, that’s a very different — and potentially very interesting — kind of opportunity. Over to you. At Gapuma Group, we’re always curious about the commodity experiences that don’t make the standard textbooks. Have you ever dealt in something genuinely unusual — whether that’s a niche agricultural product, a regional soft commodity, or something else entirely that raised eyebrows at the trading desk?
US Tariff Uncertainty: The enemy of business isn’t the tariff. It’s the chaos surrounding it
24 February 2026 When the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of emergency powers under IEEPA to impose sweeping global tariffs, markets briefly exhaled. That relief lasted roughly 24 hours. Within a day, the administration had invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act – a statute never previously used – to reimpose a 15% universal tariff rate. The EU, which had recently concluded what it believed was a settled trade agreement with Washington, was blunt in its response: “A deal is a deal.” It was also, apparently, an optimistic assumption. This is the central problem. Tariffs, as a tool of economic policy, are not inherently lethal to global trade. They raise costs, they distort supply chains, they disproportionately burden weaker economies – applying identical flat rates to Bangladesh and Germany is not a neutral act – but businesses can adapt to a fixed landscape. They reprice, they reroute, they renegotiate. What they cannot do is build rational strategy on shifting sand. Fitch Ratings has noted that despite any temporary respite, US corporates continue to face renewed uncertainty, with supply chain and margin planning effectively on hold. Reuters similarly observed that the Supreme Court ruling, whilst constraining presidential power, has not resolved the fundamental instability facing trading partners. The irony is that judicial intervention – designed as a corrective – has, at least in the short term, amplified the turbulence rather than contained it. Every legal challenge resets the clock without resetting the uncertainty. At Gapuma Group, we work across markets where predictability underpins investment decisions. What we are watching now is not the tariff level. It is the governance of trade policy itself – and that, at present, offers little comfort.
Senior Gapuma Team at GTR Africa 2025, London
25th November 2025 Gapuma sent a strong delegation to GTR Africa 2025 on 20th November, joining more than 500 trade finance leaders who convened in London to examine the continent’s shifting trade and export landscape. Operations Director Stephen Harris, Business Development Manager Yanish Bhageerutty, and Operations Manager Neha Sampat attended the conference at Convene 155 Bishopsgate, engaging with specialists across six core themes shaping the future of African trade. Key Conference HighlightsDiscussions centred on Africa’s strategic response to global geopolitical realignment, the need to strengthen long-term resilience in intra-African trade, and the importance of developing local banking capacity. Delegates explored innovative working capital solutions, evolving infrastructure and supply-chain priorities, and structuring techniques for export credit transactions. With sixty-one expert speakers and representatives from 277 organisations, the event offered exceptional networking opportunities. Panels addressed Africa’s integration into global value chains, the challenges of sovereign debt, and the expanding influence of export credit agencies across the continent. Sessions on commodity trade financing, supply-chain optimisation, and digital trade frameworks — including MLETR and the adoption of the Commonwealth Model Law — were particularly relevant to Gapuma’s operational footprint. The evening networking reception concluded the programme, reinforcing relationships essential for advancing Africa’s trade finance ecosystem in a complex and rapidly evolving global environment. Gapuma’s participation reflects our commitment to remaining at the forefront of African trade, export finance, and logistics solutions.
Nvidia’s Earnings Calm AI-Bubble Jitters — But Contradictions in the AI Race Remain
21st November 2025 Nvidia’s latest quarterly results delivered a decisive message to global markets: demand for AI infrastructure is not only real but accelerating at pace. Strong data-centre revenues lifted technology indices and eased near-term concerns that the sector was tipping into bubble territory. Yet the optimism highlights a deeper contradiction within the trillion-dollar AI race. Companies are channelling unprecedented capital into compute, chips and cloud capacity, while uncertainty persists over where long-term value will ultimately be captured. Investors remain divided on who stands to benefit and whether structural bottlenecks — from supply-chain constraints and skills shortages to rising energy demand — will curb the very growth that markets are pricing in. For commodity markets, Nvidia’s performance is not merely a technology story. It underscores the physical foundations of AI. Sharp growth in demand for advanced chips is increasing pressure on raw-materials sourcing, logistics networks and energy infrastructure. Businesses treating AI as a purely digital revolution risk overlooking the material inputs that enable it. At Gapuma Group, our approach remains clear: assess AI-driven demand through a supply-chain lens, examine exposure to single-supplier chokepoints, and strengthen ethical, transparent sourcing as infrastructure investment intensifies. In short, participate in the opportunity whilst hedging the structural risks beneath it.
AI and the Future of Physical Commodities Trading
12th November 2025 At Gapuma Group, after 25 years of moving chemicals, fertilisers, and essential commodities from more than 30 countries to over 50 global markets, we are seeing first-hand how artificial intelligence is reshaping the world of physical trading. AI adoption varies widely across our trade routes. In some sourcing markets, AI-driven supply chain systems, automated quality control, and demand forecasting tools are already integrated into daily operations. Elsewhere, progress is slower—often shaped by connectivity limitations, power reliability, and the uneven development of data infrastructure. The technology’s effects are most visible in logistics and price discovery. Predictive models now track port operations, route efficiency, and seasonal demand to optimise cargo flows, particularly for time-sensitive agricultural inputs. Real-time analysis of exchange data, freight markets, and global pricing trends is compressing decision-making windows. Meanwhile, advanced risk models assess everything from currency movements to regulatory changes across multiple jurisdictions simultaneously. Infrastructure remains the decisive factor. High-capacity AI systems perform best where data is structured and connectivity is strong. In other environments, effectiveness depends on agility—mobile-first tools, offline-capable platforms, and lighter models that respond to local trading conditions. At Gapuma, we integrate AI where it adds genuine value—improving logistics, forecasting, and supplier analytics—while remaining grounded in what has always underpinned our business: trusted relationships, deep market knowledge, and sound human judgement. The future of trading is not only digital; it is adaptive.
Tesla’s Profit Slide Highlights Mounting Pressures on Global Manufacturing
23rd October 2025 Tesla has reported record quarterly revenues of almost $28 billion for the three months to the end of September, yet profits fell by more than a third — a stark illustration of the financial pressures now bearing down on global manufacturers. The company cited higher tariffs on imported components and raw materials, increased logistics and energy costs, and substantial investment in research and development, particularly in artificial intelligence. Although demand remained strong, helped by a final wave of buyers seeking to claim expiring US electric vehicle tax credits, these gains were eclipsed by rapidly rising operating expenses. The strain facing Tesla is emblematic of a broader challenge across heavy industry. Manufacturers continue to contend with post-pandemic bottlenecks, volatile freight rates, inflation in energy and labour markets, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Shifting trade policies have prompted many companies to rethink their sourcing models, often prioritising resilience over efficiency. Volume alone is no longer a guarantee of profitability. In an era defined by fragile supply chains and heightened cost pressures, success increasingly hinges on strategic procurement, agile logistics management, and a diversified supplier network. For Gapuma and its global partners in the industrial and chemical sectors, Tesla’s experience underscores the importance of reinforcing resilience at every stage of the value chain. The ability to anticipate disruption, optimise sourcing, and contain input costs has become essential to maintaining competitiveness in today’s unpredictable marketplace.
K Show 2025: Gapuma Seizing the Opportunity Innovation, Collaboration, and Global Partnership
16th October 2025 Every three years, K Show Düsseldorf brings the global plastics and rubber industry together under one roof, showcasing the ideas and technologies shaping the future of sustainable manufacturing. This year, Gapuma was represented by Purchasing Director Russell Brill, who joined thousands of international delegates to engage with long-standing suppliers and emerging innovators. His meetings reinforced Gapuma’s commitment to resilient, forward-looking partnerships grounded in trust, quality, and shared growth. For Gapuma, K Show is far more than an exhibition. It is an essential forum for exchanging insight, exploring new innovations, and strengthening the collaborative spirit that underpins our global supply chain. We extend our thanks to all partners and colleagues for their hospitality, inspiration, and continued confidence. Together, we remain focused on driving progress and sustainability across the industry.
Markets Eye Fiscal Tightening as Commodities Traders Brace for Ripple Effects
6th August 2025 London’s stock markets opened higher on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% in early trading. Yet beneath the initial gains, warning signs are emerging for the real economy — particularly for commodities traders. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to implement “moderate but sustained” tax rises to address a projected £41.2 billion shortfall under her fiscal stability rule. While the National Institute of Economic & Social Research has lifted its 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%, it warns of a “deteriorating” fiscal position. For physical traders such as Gapuma Group, the risks are clear. Fiscal tightening could slow demand for construction materials, chemicals, and energy products. However, the UK’s record pace of renewable energy installations signals longer-term growth in demand for critical minerals and battery components. Political risk is adding to market tension. The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Whitcroft, and Russian officials — scheduled just days before a ceasefire deadline in Ukraine — is fuelling uncertainty in energy markets and raising concerns over global shipping routes. Meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields point to tighter credit conditions, a key challenge for traders reliant on trade finance and freight hedging. At Gapuma, we continue to navigate these intersecting pressures, maintaining resilience in our supply chain while delivering value across global markets. SEO Meta Description:Fiscal tightening, political risk, and shifting demand patterns are testing commodities traders. Gapuma monitors global pressures while adapting to long-term opportunities.
Tariffs, Supply Constraints, and Falling Crop Prices Put U.S. Fertiliser Market Under Strain
23rd July 2025 A detailed analysis by Argus Media, supported by reporting from sector commentators Calder Jett, Sneha Kumar, Chris Mullins, and Taylor Zavala, highlights the growing pressures on the U.S. fertiliser market as the autumn application season approaches. Insights shared during the recent Southwestern Fertilizer Conference in Nashville have drawn attention to several critical challenges currently affecting the market: 🔻 The Argus Fertilizer Affordability Index has dropped sharply to 0.71 — significantly below the benchmark of 1, and its lowest level since April 2022.🚢 A 10% import tariff introduced in April is tightening offshore supply at a time when the U.S. market is heavily reliant on imports to satisfy domestic demand.🌽 Expectations of a bumper corn crop are putting further strain on inventories while simultaneously driving down corn futures, reducing affordability for growers.🛑 Many wholesalers and retailers are opting to delay their autumn fertiliser purchases to avoid high upfront costs and storage challenges — with phosphates and potash particularly affected. The outlook remains uncertain. By 1 August, additional and potentially higher duties may be imposed on fertiliser imports from Algeria, the EU, Tunisia, Brunei, and Indonesia — countries which together accounted for more than 13% of U.S. fertiliser imports last year. This added layer of complexity is especially significant in the nitrogen segment, where supplies remain limited due to low global inventories and continuing geopolitical disruptions. With coverage also featured in World Fertilizer Magazine, this story is expected to remain a major talking point across the industry in the coming weeks.