The Barrel: The last place the story shows up
9 July 2026 When the US–Iran ceasefire collapsed in the Strait of Hormuz this week, the headlines went straight to price. Brent ticked up, then wobbled either way, and most commentary moved on. But for the companies that actually move oil, gas and chemicals through that water, the price is not the problem. The problem is everything sitting underneath it. Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and LNG. That makes route reliability a commercial contract in its own right, and it is precisely the thing a trader cannot hedge. You can hedge crude. You cannot hedge a captain who refuses to enter a severe-risk zone, an insurer who rewrites a war-risk exclusion overnight, or a payment rail that quietly narrows while your cargo is still mid-voyage. That last point is the one keeping people up. A US general licence opened a legal corridor for Iranian oil on 21 June. Within roughly a fortnight it was revoked and replaced with a wind-down order. Legal permission, it turns out, is not the same as bankable confidence, and each transaction now carries a lifecycle risk that is far harder to price than the commodity itself. This is why so many commodities businesses are in a genuine tailspin right now. The instinct is to watch the screen. But the screen is a lagging indicator. A vessel that turns back, an insurer that hesitates, a bank that declines a settlement, none of it registers immediately as a shortage. It registers as friction. Friction compounds quietly, and by the time it reaches the price, the decision you needed to make was already late. The firms that come through this well will not be the ones with the best price call. They will be the ones who treated the route, the licence and the counterparty as three separate clocks, and started tracking all three before the market did. Strategy in this environment is not prediction. It is knowing which questions to ask, and asking them early. Gapuma Group | Trading commodities and speciality chemicals across international markets, with a clear read on the ground beneath the price.
The relief is real… The certainty is not
1st July 2026 For four months, the price of oil has told the story of a war few people expected and fewer still know how to end. Now, as June closes, that story appears to be turning: Brent has slipped to around $73 a barrel, its steepest monthly fall since the pandemic and its worst quarter in six years. Petrol stations, freight desks and finance directors across the trading world are, for the first time since February, allowed to exhale. But exhaling is not the same as trusting what comes next. The rally in supply behind this fall in price is genuine enough. Tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, sanction waivers have loosened Iranian barrels back into a starved market, and the diplomatic language out of Washington and Tehran has, briefly, softened. Yet scratch beneath the relief and the foundations look considerably less solid than the headline number suggests. The current arrangement holding the strait open is not a settlement; it is a temporary courtesy, with Iran having agreed to forgo transit fees for just sixty days and reserving the right to reinstate them the moment that window closes. A ceasefire with an expiry date is not peace. It is an interval. It is worth asking, too, who is actually behind the falling price, because the answer is not simply optimism. Much of this year’s most consistent buying came from trend-following hedge funds, the quiet, algorithm-driven money that piled into long oil positions as the conflict escalated in spring. That money is now heading for the exit, not because the war is over, but because the trade has stopped trending. What looks like the market voting for peace is, in no small part, funds voting to bank their profits before the next headline turns against them. This is a market that has grown fluent in front-running its own volatility. Even regulators have taken notice: several unusually well-timed bets against oil, placed in the minutes before key American statements on Iran this year, are now the subject of scrutiny. Ask a commodities desk how confident it feels and the honesty is telling. Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, described the situation bluntly as ultimately unsustainable, adding that markets are simply finding ways to muddle through, because the ordinary business of buying cargoes and hedging exposure cannot pause for a war to make up its mind. That, in a sentence, is the position every trading, logistics and distribution business now finds itself in. So can this easing be relied upon as the basis for forward strategy? Not yet, and arguably not for some time. A lower oil price today buys breathing room, not certainty. Freight contracts, insurance premiums and supplier terms still need to be built for a strait that could tighten again with a single statement out of Washington or Tehran. The prudent response is not to chase the rally down, but to hedge as though the ceasefire is what it has repeatedly proven itself to be this year: fragile, reversible and provisional. The deal may hold. History this year suggests we should not assume it will.
Gapuma Invests in Tri-Chem Trading: Backing Momentum in African Chemical Distribution
Some partnerships are about scale. The best ones are about momentum 26 June 2026 Today we’re delighted to announce that Gapuma Group has acquired an equity stake in Tri-Chem Trading (Pty) Ltd, a fast-growing South African importer, exporter, trader and distributor of commodity and specialty chemicals serving South Africa and the wider African market. Tri-Chem’s founding leadership stays at the helm, bringing 35 years of combined industry experience, established supplier networks and a hard-won reputation for commercial excellence across mining, coatings, industrial, water treatment, manufacturing and agriculture. Our role is simple: not to change what already works, but to add the sourcing depth, supply chain infrastructure and financial backing that let the team grow faster and serve customers better. It’s exactly the kind of partnership we look for on the African continent. The timing is fitting. We’re announcing as both teams came together at Coatings for Africa (24–26 June) in Sandton, Johannesburg, with a shared ambition to bring greater value and opportunity to clients across the region. Welcome to the journey, Tri-Chem. There’s real energy in this one. Full announcement and joint statement attached here.
Gapuma breaks into the world’s Top 100 chemical distributors
17 June 2026 Gapuma Group has been named among the world’s leading chemical distributors in the 2026 ICIS Top 100. Published by ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Services), the Top 100 Chemical Distributors is the definitive global ranking of the sector, now in its 17th year. This year’s edition, compiled in association with Fecc, the European Association of Chemical Distributors, ranks the firms that keep the world’s chemical supply chains moving, broken down by region from Europe to the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. Jack Bardakjian, Founder and CEO of Gapuma Group, said: “To enter this ranking for the first time would have been a milestone in itself, a tribute to everyone who has helped build this company. To do so at 36th in the world, 20th in Europe and 1st in the United Kingdom, on sales of $787.5m, is a moment of real pride. This recognition belongs to the people who earn that trust each day, and to the partners who place their confidence in us. It is a proud first, and it will not be our last.” A debut on this list is not a small thing. It places Gapuma alongside names that define the industry: Brenntag, Tricon Energy, Univar Solutions, IMCD, Nagase, Azelis, Omya and Helm, to name only a few. It is rare company, and we are proud to have earned our place in it. That place reflects how Gapuma has grown: across West Africa, Europe, the Middle East and beyond, built on dependable supply, deep market knowledge and a genuinely global reach. ICIS describes this year’s cohort as the resilient backbone of the chemical industry, the partners producers and customers turn to first. Our thanks to ICIS, and to the customers, suppliers and colleagues who brought us here. The best is still ahead.
Gapuma Ghana Limited at WAMPEX 2026
8 June 2026 Last week we joined West Africa’s mining and power community in Accra for WAMPEX 2026, and we did so in force. WAMPEX – the West African Mining & Power Exhibition – is the region’s largest and longest-running event of its kind, running for over three decades. This year’s 19th edition, held from 3 to 5 June at the La Palm Royal Beach Hotel, brought together more than 6,000 mining professionals and over 250 exhibitors from 20 countries, all under the theme: “How Can Responsible Mining and Power Accelerate West Africa’s Sustainable Development?” It matters because West Africa is now central to the global mineral conversation – gold, bauxite, iron ore, manganese and lithium among them – and WAMPEX compresses months of sourcing, supplier discovery and high-level networking into three focused days. For a supply and trading partner like Gapuma, that is the room to be in. We were proud to send a strong delegation from across the Gapuma Group, including: Kishor Ubrani – Managing Director, Gapuma Ghana Limited Shiko Ghosh – CEO, Gapuma Ghana Limited Viveck Dutt Obert Chukwature Dheeren Panjwani Raj Thakkar – Procurement Consultant, Gapuma Group Ash Unadkat – Quality Manager, Gapuma Group Thank you to the organisers, the Ghana Chamber of Mines and everyone who stopped by our stand. Here’s to the partnerships that move the sector forward.
Ghana: Where it all began, and where we headed next
There are companies that arrive in a market, and there are companies that were born in one. For Gapuma Group, Ghana is the latter. When our founder, Jack Bardakjian, started the business in 1999, the very first trade was in Ghana – a decision he took, in his own words, “against all the advice and all the predictions.” Twenty-six years on, that instinct has become the foundation of everything we are: an international commodities group sourcing from more than thirty countries and delivering to over fifty, with an active in-country presence in West Africa that traces directly back to where we began. So when Ash Unadkat, our Office and Quality Manager, made his first overseas trip on behalf of the company this month – accompanied by our Procurement Consultant, Raj Thakkar – it was no accident that the destination was Accra. You return to your roots when you want to grow. The timing could hardly be richer. Ghana stands at a genuinely interesting moment. The 24-hour economy initiative, the Accra–Kumasi Expressway, and continued development across the gold, oil, energy, cocoa, and financial sectors are reshaping the commercial landscape – the same sectors that have anchored the bilateral relationship between Ghana and the United Kingdom for generations. That relationship runs deep. Ghana was the first sub-Saharan African nation to win independence from colonial rule, in March 1957 – a milestone that made it a trailblazer for a continent. The bonds forged since, in language, trade, the Commonwealth, and a vast and vibrant diaspora, remain among the closest the UK holds anywhere in Africa. Our London-based Ghanaian colleague, Yannick Annor, captured that spirit beautifully after meeting the President of the Republic of Ghana in London on 31 May. He wrote of a diaspora encouraged to return, invest, and bring their knowledge home – and of his own reasons, as a French-Ghanaian, for choosing the UK precisely because it kept him close to Ghana. “We all have a role to play in shaping the future of our country,” he said. We could not agree more, and we are proud to play our small part. And then there is the football. In exactly twenty days, on 23 June, the Black Stars meet England at Gillette Stadium in their first-ever competitive fixture between the two nations. Whatever the scoreline, there is something fitting about it: two countries bound by history, meeting on the world’s biggest stage, just as one of them welcomes us back to where our story started. From a single trade in 1999 to a quarter-century of partnership – Ghana, it has always been you. 🇬🇭
🛢️ GAPUMA GROUP | MARKET INTELLIGENCE | 20 MAY 2026
Hormuz, Beijing and Moscow: The Geopolitics of Oil Are Being Rewritten in Real Time The movement of two Chinese supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz today – the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, carrying approximately 4 million barrels of crude after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months – has sent an immediate and unmistakeable signal to commodity markets. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news. This is not merely a shipping story. It is a geopolitical statement. The vessels’ passage comes as President Trump and President Xi concluded a two-day summit in Beijing, with a White House official describing the talks as “good.” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China would work behind the scenes to help reopen the strait, noting that Beijing has “a much bigger interest in reopening the strait than the US does.” Beijing, characteristically, said nothing publicly about Hormuz – Chinese state media reported only that the leaders “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation.” Silence, in diplomacy, is often the loudest language. Iran has reportedly sought to implement a toll system for vessels crossing Hormuz – a brazen assertion of sovereign authority over an international waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. That Chinese-flagged supertankers are now moving freely while broader restrictions remain in place is a pointed reminder of where true leverage lies. Meanwhile, closer to home, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorised the import of Russian-refined diesel and jet fuel into the UK indefinitely, alongside a temporary licence permitting the maritime transport of Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal terminals. The government frames it as pragmatism. Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson told Sky News the government was “acting pragmatically to insulate British citizens from the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.” Critics – not least opposition leader Kemi Badenoch – see it differently: as analysts have noted, from Moscow’s perspective, it demonstrates that Western countries are “not that committed to a sanctions regime” when their own consumers feel the pinch. The broader picture is stark. Global oil supply has declined by 12.8 mb/d in total since February, with output from Gulf countries affected by the Strait’s closure running 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. The IEA projects a decline of 3.9 mb/d on average across 2026, assuming flows gradually resume from June. The United Nations has already cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% this year, against an estimated 3% last year, citing higher energy costs and weaker trade. For commodities and futures desks, the key questions now are whether today’s tanker movements represent a genuine reopening or a bilateral Chinese carve-out – and whether the gap between the two matters less than markets think. Wood Mackenzie has estimated Brent could approach $200 a barrel if the Strait remains largely shut until the end of the year. The downside scenario, by contrast, assumes a rapid diplomatic resolution that supply chains are ill-prepared to absorb smoothly. At Gapuma Group, we are watching these developments closely across energy, commodities and futures markets. The rules of the game are changing – and the players setting them are not all where they used to be. For market intelligence, trading insights and strategic analysis, connect with the Gapuma Group team.
Gapuma’s Raj Thakkar heads to Cologne for Chemspec Europe
5th May 2026 Gapuma Group’s Raj Thakkar will be at Chemspec Europe 2026 at Koelnmesse, Cologne, on 6-7 May – one of the chemical industry’s most valuable annual gatherings. The event serves as a cross-sector sourcing hub for fine and speciality chemicals, bringing together producers, buyers, and technical experts from across pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, speciality materials, coatings, personal care, electronics, energy, and many other industries. With over 400 global suppliers on the exhibition floor, it is precisely the kind of concentrated, high-quality environment where meaningful business relationships are forged, and supply chains are sharpened. During his visit, Raj will be strengthening ties with Gapuma’s existing partners whilst exploring new supplier opportunities – the twin pillars of any serious procurement strategy. Face-to-face engagement remains as valuable as ever in a sector navigating one of the fastest-changing markets the industry has known. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Raj at Chemspec or simply open a conversation about what Gapuma can offer, contact him directly at raj@gapuma.com.
Is comprehensive globalism over?
What the Iran War means for physical commodity traders 24 March 2026 The Financial Times has been asking hard questions about the structural shift now under way in global business – and the conclusions demand attention from anyone in physical commodities. FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf is unambiguous: “The worst case is that this will be one of the biggest shocks in the postwar period.” Meanwhile, FT columnist Tej Parikh cuts to a deeper vulnerability: “Investors have committed trillions of dollars to the technology, one of the most power-hungry inventions ever, on the assumption of ample energy supplies and a slick chip production line that can cross more than 70 borders before reaching the final consumer. But the Iran war is exposing the fragilities in the AI supply chain.” If that assumption of frictionless global logistics is now in doubt for the digital economy, it raises an equally sharp question for physical commodity traders: is the model of seamless, borderless trade still viable? The honest answer is: not unconditionally. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated that a single chokepoint can simultaneously disrupt energy, fertiliser, industrial gases and shipping insurance markets. Supply chains engineered for efficiency rather than resilience are being exposed for what they are. Three conclusions stand out. Hyper-globalised sourcing is a liability without redundancy built in. Global trade is not over, but it is being repriced around risk. And those with established local distribution networks are navigating this crisis measurably better than those dependent on long, centralised chains. Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director of Gapuma Group, is direct on this point: “Every experienced commodity trader understands that price is only half the equation – the other half is access. When the architecture of global trade is under this kind of stress, access becomes everything. Local presence, local relationships, local knowledge – these are not peripheral considerations. They are the hard infrastructure of the business.” The world will trade again. But the terms on which it does so are being rewritten. Primary source: Financial Times, 12 March 2026, and related FT reporting
The Strait That Broke the World’s Confidence
17 March 2026 The Strait of Hormuz – a corridor barely 33 miles wide at its narrowest – has not just closed to commercial traffic. It has exposed the paper-thin foundation on which the modern world’s energy economy is built. At Gapuma Group, we are watching this unfold in real time. The disruption is not abstract. It is operational. War risk insurance has been cancelled wholesale by underwriters. Freight rates on some routes have surged by over 600%. Several of our counterparties in the region cannot get cover at any premium. Ships that could move cargo are sitting still because no insurer will touch them. The numbers behind the closure are stark. Around a quarter of the world’s daily oil consumption and a fifth of its LNG pass through that single waterway. Qatar has halted LNG production. Iraq has cut crude output. Jet fuel premiums in Europe and Asia have hit record highs. TTF gas prices rallied 70% in less than a week. But beyond the immediate crisis lies the more troubling long-term question: should we still be this exposed? The Gulf states have spent the last decade building a compelling alternative model – the “Dubai model” of tourism, logistics, and technology. The World Bank and World Economic Forum were praising their economic resilience as recently as late 2025. That narrative has aged badly in a fortnight. The honest answer is that a post-oil world is desirable, inevitable – and currently unaffordable at the speed events are demanding. Renewables cannot be scaled overnight. Biofuels offer partial relief – and notably, marine biofuels have held steady where fossil fuel equivalents have spiralled. But the infrastructure, the capital, and the political will for genuine energy independence remain incomplete. For commodities trading, the lesson is blunt: diversification of supply, route, and risk is not a future aspiration. It is an immediate imperative.
Did you know you can trade lean hogs on the stock market? 🐷
25 February 2026 No, really. Alongside live cattle, oats, frozen orange juice and cocoa futures, lean hog contracts are genuinely traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – in lots of 40,000 pounds, no less. We’re not making this up. It turns out the world of commodity trading goes way beyond the gold bars and oil barrels most people picture. Here are five “exotic” soft commodities that serious traders are watching right now: ☕ Coffee – A billion daily drinkers means relentless demand. But Brazilian soil moisture levels, Vietnamese harvest delays and tropical storms all move the price. Your morning flat white is a geopolitical event. 🍫 Cocoa – In 2024, Côte d’Ivoire cut its export contracts by 40% due to poor weather. Ghana fared little better. Two countries produce half the world’s supply — so when West Africa sneezes, the chocolate market catches a cold. 🌾 Oats – Grown across the EU, Russia, Canada and Australia, oats are more globally distributed than most soft commodities. But here’s the twist: disruption in one grain market tends to ripple across all grains, because they share the same growing regions, transport networks and storage systems. 🥩 Lean hogs and live cattle – Alternative proteins are getting all the headlines. Meanwhile, global meat consumption keeps rising. Livestock futures are a quiet corner of the market that demographic trends suggest won’t stay quiet for long. 🍊 Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) – Yes, it has its own futures market. In 2024, it hit all-time highs after disease-carrying sap-sucking insects devastated crops in Brazil (which produces nearly 70% of the world’s OJ) and a series of hurricanes compounded the damage in Florida. Extraordinary volatility in the most ordinary of breakfast staples. The common thread? These markets are driven by weather, disease, geography and human appetite — not by central bank policy or tech earnings cycles. For traders and commodity professionals who understand the supply side, that’s a very different — and potentially very interesting — kind of opportunity. Over to you. At Gapuma Group, we’re always curious about the commodity experiences that don’t make the standard textbooks. Have you ever dealt in something genuinely unusual — whether that’s a niche agricultural product, a regional soft commodity, or something else entirely that raised eyebrows at the trading desk?