The Global Ethanol Rush: Energy Security Meets Agricultural Reality
19th November 2025 The global ethanol market is undergoing rapid and far-reaching expansion, driven by government mandates and a growing focus on energy security. Yet behind the headlines about renewable fuels lies a far more intricate story—one shaped by agricultural pressures, shifting trade flows and the practical constraints of supply chains. Brazil is leading innovation in maize-based ethanol, with production expected to reach 30% of total output by 2026–27, equating to 10.6 billion litres. The economics are increasingly favourable: maize ethanol costs around BRL 1.85 per litre compared with BRL 2.45 for sugarcane, while valuable byproducts strengthen margins. Still, concerns over biomass feedstock availability for steam generation are becoming more pronounced. Indonesia is preparing to implement mandatory ethanol blending by 2028, aiming for a 5% mix to displace 5% of its 22.8 million kilolitre fuel imports. At COP30, Pertamina highlighted Brazil’s success as a model for reducing dependence on fossil fuels through bioethanol. However, the challenges are significant. In India, maize farmers are calling for a “Maize Control Order” after prices fell ₹600 per quintal below the minimum support price. Ethanol-driven maize diversion has transformed India from a 3.7 MT exporter into a projected 1 MT importer, pushing prices from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000 per tonne. Livestock sectors are now urging duty-free access to GM maize to safeguard feed supplies. Indonesia faces its own hurdles, including inconsistent raw material availability, volatile pricing, and limited infrastructure for production and distribution. For a global commodities partner like Gapuma Group, the ethanol boom represents both opportunity and complexity in equal measure. The reshaping of agricultural supply chains across multiple continents is creating heightened demand for strategic procurement, logistics capability and real-time market intelligence. Long-term success will depend on a clear understanding of policy drivers, farmer economics and infrastructure readiness—factors that will ultimately determine which national programmes deliver on their ambitions.
Strengthening Our Biofuels Vision
— Introducing Charles Percheron 4th November 2025 Gapuma is delighted to announce that Charles Percheron has joined our Switzerland office in Nyon as Senior Biodiesel Trader. Charles will play a central role in expanding Gapuma’s global biofuels footprint, strengthening our position in biodiesel and sustainable feedstocks. With more than fourteen years’ experience across physical and derivative commodity trading, brokerage, and operations, he brings an outstanding track record of performance, innovation, and market insight. Based in Nyon, Charles combines a deep understanding of biodiesel markets with a sophisticated, multi-layered approach to business development and a passion for data-driven, forward-looking trading strategies. His appointment reinforces our strategic commitment to the energy transition and to scaling sustainable commodities across international supply chains. As we continue to invest in future-focused fuels, we look forward to accelerating global progress in sustainability and low-carbon logistics. Please join us in welcoming Charles to the Gapuma family and wishing him every success in this exciting new chapter.
🌍 Crude Oil Instability Renews Debate on Energy Strategy
17th June 2025 Volatility in global oil markets has once again come into sharp focus as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Crude prices have surged following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, pushing Brent close to the USD 80 mark—a level widely considered a threshold at which previously uneconomic sources of oil, such as shale and fracked reserves, start to re-enter the conversation. This development comes amid continued energy disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and increasingly fractured relations with Russia. As supply chains are tested and markets jitter, the conversation around energy resilience, security, and strategy is growing ever more urgent. At Gapuma, we remain mindful of the complex and often polarising nature of energy policy, particularly where fossil fuels such as fracked oil and gas are concerned. While fracking remains a subject of intense debate—on environmental, regulatory, and social grounds—what is undeniable is that rising oil prices tend to breathe new life into its economic case. At price points above USD 80 per barrel, advocates of fracking are likely to become more vocal, and investment interest could follow. However, it is essential to situate this debate within a broader strategic context. Short-term responses to supply shocks must not overshadow the longer-term imperative to create a more balanced and sustainable energy mix. Carbon-based fuels—while still an important part of global supply—must gradually yield to lower-emission alternatives that offer both environmental and geopolitical stability. Battery technologies, scalable renewables, green hydrogen, and smart grid infrastructure will all play increasingly pivotal roles in shaping the energy systems of tomorrow. These technologies reduce dependency on volatile imports, enhance domestic energy security, and contribute meaningfully to decarbonisation targets. As political analyst Marwan Bishara noted, “Energy has become the lifeblood of geopolitical power—a single disruption can reshape global alliances.” That reality has been laid bare in both Eastern Europe and the Gulf, and it continues to shape decision-making across boardrooms and governments alike. Reflecting on this moment, Jack Bardakjian, Gapuma’s Group Managing Director, said: “We need to be very judicious in the choices we make today to guarantee our energy security in the medium to longer term.” With the situation in Iran remaining fluid and the risk of further destabilisation high, the pressure on energy markets is likely to persist. Should a leadership vacuum emerge or regional conflict escalate, we could see further strain on oil flows and a renewed push by certain sectors for domestic energy sources, including shale and fracked hydrocarbons. Nonetheless, the long-term trajectory must point toward a healthier, more diversified global energy portfolio—one in which carbon-based fuels represent a smaller share and sustainability plays a greater role in both energy policy and investment decisions. Gapuma remains committed to providing insight and clarity at this critical junction, as markets, policymakers, and partners navigate the path ahead.