🛢️ GAPUMA GROUP | MARKET INTELLIGENCE | 20 MAY 2026
Hormuz, Beijing and Moscow: The Geopolitics of Oil Are Being Rewritten in Real Time The movement of two Chinese supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz today – the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, carrying approximately 4 million barrels of crude after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months – has sent an immediate and unmistakeable signal to commodity markets. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news. This is not merely a shipping story. It is a geopolitical statement. The vessels’ passage comes as President Trump and President Xi concluded a two-day summit in Beijing, with a White House official describing the talks as “good.” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China would work behind the scenes to help reopen the strait, noting that Beijing has “a much bigger interest in reopening the strait than the US does.” Beijing, characteristically, said nothing publicly about Hormuz – Chinese state media reported only that the leaders “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation.” Silence, in diplomacy, is often the loudest language. Iran has reportedly sought to implement a toll system for vessels crossing Hormuz – a brazen assertion of sovereign authority over an international waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. That Chinese-flagged supertankers are now moving freely while broader restrictions remain in place is a pointed reminder of where true leverage lies. Meanwhile, closer to home, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorised the import of Russian-refined diesel and jet fuel into the UK indefinitely, alongside a temporary licence permitting the maritime transport of Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal terminals. The government frames it as pragmatism. Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson told Sky News the government was “acting pragmatically to insulate British citizens from the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.” Critics – not least opposition leader Kemi Badenoch – see it differently: as analysts have noted, from Moscow’s perspective, it demonstrates that Western countries are “not that committed to a sanctions regime” when their own consumers feel the pinch. The broader picture is stark. Global oil supply has declined by 12.8 mb/d in total since February, with output from Gulf countries affected by the Strait’s closure running 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. The IEA projects a decline of 3.9 mb/d on average across 2026, assuming flows gradually resume from June. The United Nations has already cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% this year, against an estimated 3% last year, citing higher energy costs and weaker trade. For commodities and futures desks, the key questions now are whether today’s tanker movements represent a genuine reopening or a bilateral Chinese carve-out – and whether the gap between the two matters less than markets think. Wood Mackenzie has estimated Brent could approach $200 a barrel if the Strait remains largely shut until the end of the year. The downside scenario, by contrast, assumes a rapid diplomatic resolution that supply chains are ill-prepared to absorb smoothly. At Gapuma Group, we are watching these developments closely across energy, commodities and futures markets. The rules of the game are changing – and the players setting them are not all where they used to be. For market intelligence, trading insights and strategic analysis, connect with the Gapuma Group team.
Gapuma Switzerland at the Sharp End of Global Methanol Markets
6th November 2025 Fabrice Brunet, Managing Director of Gapuma Switzerland, travelled to Singapore this week to attend the International Methanol Conference 2025 (IMC 2025), held from 4th–6th November at the Pan Pacific Singapore. The Industry’s Annual ParliamentSince 2006, this annual gathering—organised by MMSA for the IMPCA International Methanol Producers & Consumers Association—has brought together suppliers, consumers, traders, and service providers in what has become the methanol industry’s most influential forum. In a year marked by market uncertainty, pricing pressure, shifting trade flows, and geopolitical tensions, IMC 2025 convened global leaders across two intensive days. Crucially, it remains the venue for Asia’s annual contract negotiations—where meaningful business is often concluded in the margins, over coffee and corridor conversations. Why Singapore MattersThere is a reason this meeting is held in Singapore rather than Zurich or Houston. The city-state’s rise as Asia’s foremost energy and commodities hub reflects broader shifts in global economic gravity. Its regulatory sophistication, logistical strengths, and strategic geography make it the natural home for an industry increasingly shaped by Asian demand. Methanol: The Quiet DisruptorWhile public debate tends to focus on hydrogen and batteries, methanol continues to reshape markets with far less fanfare. Serving both as a vital chemical feedstock and an emerging marine fuel, it occupies a unique space—rooted in the traditional hydrocarbon economy yet integral to global decarbonisation strategies. Why Gapuma Prioritises This EventGapuma’s presence at IMC 2025 reflects strategic priorities: access to market intelligence that differentiates opportunity from risk; relationship-building with the producers, consumers, and traders who influence global flows; close monitoring of developments in renewable methanol; and an understanding of Asian dynamics that increasingly define the sector’s future. As Gapuma expands its footprint in renewable fuels and chemical feedstocks, events like IMC 2025 provide invaluable context. The insights gathered in Singapore will directly inform our trading strategies and long-term positioning in markets where being six months early can look perilously similar to being six months late. We extend our thanks to MMSA and IMPCA for another outstanding conference.
🌍 Crude Oil Instability Renews Debate on Energy Strategy
17th June 2025 Volatility in global oil markets has once again come into sharp focus as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Crude prices have surged following recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, pushing Brent close to the USD 80 mark—a level widely considered a threshold at which previously uneconomic sources of oil, such as shale and fracked reserves, start to re-enter the conversation. This development comes amid continued energy disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and increasingly fractured relations with Russia. As supply chains are tested and markets jitter, the conversation around energy resilience, security, and strategy is growing ever more urgent. At Gapuma, we remain mindful of the complex and often polarising nature of energy policy, particularly where fossil fuels such as fracked oil and gas are concerned. While fracking remains a subject of intense debate—on environmental, regulatory, and social grounds—what is undeniable is that rising oil prices tend to breathe new life into its economic case. At price points above USD 80 per barrel, advocates of fracking are likely to become more vocal, and investment interest could follow. However, it is essential to situate this debate within a broader strategic context. Short-term responses to supply shocks must not overshadow the longer-term imperative to create a more balanced and sustainable energy mix. Carbon-based fuels—while still an important part of global supply—must gradually yield to lower-emission alternatives that offer both environmental and geopolitical stability. Battery technologies, scalable renewables, green hydrogen, and smart grid infrastructure will all play increasingly pivotal roles in shaping the energy systems of tomorrow. These technologies reduce dependency on volatile imports, enhance domestic energy security, and contribute meaningfully to decarbonisation targets. As political analyst Marwan Bishara noted, “Energy has become the lifeblood of geopolitical power—a single disruption can reshape global alliances.” That reality has been laid bare in both Eastern Europe and the Gulf, and it continues to shape decision-making across boardrooms and governments alike. Reflecting on this moment, Jack Bardakjian, Gapuma’s Group Managing Director, said: “We need to be very judicious in the choices we make today to guarantee our energy security in the medium to longer term.” With the situation in Iran remaining fluid and the risk of further destabilisation high, the pressure on energy markets is likely to persist. Should a leadership vacuum emerge or regional conflict escalate, we could see further strain on oil flows and a renewed push by certain sectors for domestic energy sources, including shale and fracked hydrocarbons. Nonetheless, the long-term trajectory must point toward a healthier, more diversified global energy portfolio—one in which carbon-based fuels represent a smaller share and sustainability plays a greater role in both energy policy and investment decisions. Gapuma remains committed to providing insight and clarity at this critical junction, as markets, policymakers, and partners navigate the path ahead.