The relief is real… The certainty is not
1st July 2026 For four months, the price of oil has told the story of a war few people expected and fewer still know how to end. Now, as June closes, that story appears to be turning: Brent has slipped to around $73 a barrel, its steepest monthly fall since the pandemic and its worst quarter in six years. Petrol stations, freight desks and finance directors across the trading world are, for the first time since February, allowed to exhale. But exhaling is not the same as trusting what comes next. The rally in supply behind this fall in price is genuine enough. Tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, sanction waivers have loosened Iranian barrels back into a starved market, and the diplomatic language out of Washington and Tehran has, briefly, softened. Yet scratch beneath the relief and the foundations look considerably less solid than the headline number suggests. The current arrangement holding the strait open is not a settlement; it is a temporary courtesy, with Iran having agreed to forgo transit fees for just sixty days and reserving the right to reinstate them the moment that window closes. A ceasefire with an expiry date is not peace. It is an interval. It is worth asking, too, who is actually behind the falling price, because the answer is not simply optimism. Much of this year’s most consistent buying came from trend-following hedge funds, the quiet, algorithm-driven money that piled into long oil positions as the conflict escalated in spring. That money is now heading for the exit, not because the war is over, but because the trade has stopped trending. What looks like the market voting for peace is, in no small part, funds voting to bank their profits before the next headline turns against them. This is a market that has grown fluent in front-running its own volatility. Even regulators have taken notice: several unusually well-timed bets against oil, placed in the minutes before key American statements on Iran this year, are now the subject of scrutiny. Ask a commodities desk how confident it feels and the honesty is telling. Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, described the situation bluntly as ultimately unsustainable, adding that markets are simply finding ways to muddle through, because the ordinary business of buying cargoes and hedging exposure cannot pause for a war to make up its mind. That, in a sentence, is the position every trading, logistics and distribution business now finds itself in. So can this easing be relied upon as the basis for forward strategy? Not yet, and arguably not for some time. A lower oil price today buys breathing room, not certainty. Freight contracts, insurance premiums and supplier terms still need to be built for a strait that could tighten again with a single statement out of Washington or Tehran. The prudent response is not to chase the rally down, but to hedge as though the ceasefire is what it has repeatedly proven itself to be this year: fragile, reversible and provisional. The deal may hold. History this year suggests we should not assume it will.
Gapuma Invests in Tri-Chem Trading: Backing Momentum in African Chemical Distribution
Some partnerships are about scale. The best ones are about momentum 26 June 2026 Today we’re delighted to announce that Gapuma Group has acquired an equity stake in Tri-Chem Trading (Pty) Ltd, a fast-growing South African importer, exporter, trader and distributor of commodity and specialty chemicals serving South Africa and the wider African market. Tri-Chem’s founding leadership stays at the helm, bringing 35 years of combined industry experience, established supplier networks and a hard-won reputation for commercial excellence across mining, coatings, industrial, water treatment, manufacturing and agriculture. Our role is simple: not to change what already works, but to add the sourcing depth, supply chain infrastructure and financial backing that let the team grow faster and serve customers better. It’s exactly the kind of partnership we look for on the African continent. The timing is fitting. We’re announcing as both teams came together at Coatings for Africa (24–26 June) in Sandton, Johannesburg, with a shared ambition to bring greater value and opportunity to clients across the region. Welcome to the journey, Tri-Chem. There’s real energy in this one. Full announcement and joint statement attached here.
Celebrating 27 Years of Excellence: The Gapuma Anniversary Milestone 🥂
26th April 2026 Huge congratulations to Jack Bardakjian and the entire global team at Gapuma Group Limited as we proudly celebrate our 27th Anniversary! Reaching this significant milestone is a testament to our resilience, vision, and the collective dedication of our incredible team. Over nearly three decades, Gapuma has evolved into a dynamic and forward-thinking organization. We pride ourselves on being an agile force in the industry—continually growing and innovating to stay ahead of the curve. Even amidst ever-changing economic landscapes and global challenges, our commitment to “keeping up with the times” ensures we remain a reliable partner in a fast-paced world. Our Success is Your Success This journey would not be possible without the unwavering support of our esteemed, loyal clients and trusted suppliers. Your partnership is the foundation of our longevity, and we are extremely grateful for the continued trust you place in us. Going Above & Beyond 🚀 At Gapuma, our philosophy remains unchanged: we strive to “Go Above & Beyond” in everything we do. Whether it’s navigating complex logistics or fostering global relationships, we are committed to delivering excellence without compromise. Here’s to the next chapter of growth, innovation, and shared success!
Senior Gapuma Team at GTR Africa 2025, London
25th November 2025 Gapuma sent a strong delegation to GTR Africa 2025 on 20th November, joining more than 500 trade finance leaders who convened in London to examine the continent’s shifting trade and export landscape. Operations Director Stephen Harris, Business Development Manager Yanish Bhageerutty, and Operations Manager Neha Sampat attended the conference at Convene 155 Bishopsgate, engaging with specialists across six core themes shaping the future of African trade. Key Conference HighlightsDiscussions centred on Africa’s strategic response to global geopolitical realignment, the need to strengthen long-term resilience in intra-African trade, and the importance of developing local banking capacity. Delegates explored innovative working capital solutions, evolving infrastructure and supply-chain priorities, and structuring techniques for export credit transactions. With sixty-one expert speakers and representatives from 277 organisations, the event offered exceptional networking opportunities. Panels addressed Africa’s integration into global value chains, the challenges of sovereign debt, and the expanding influence of export credit agencies across the continent. Sessions on commodity trade financing, supply-chain optimisation, and digital trade frameworks — including MLETR and the adoption of the Commonwealth Model Law — were particularly relevant to Gapuma’s operational footprint. The evening networking reception concluded the programme, reinforcing relationships essential for advancing Africa’s trade finance ecosystem in a complex and rapidly evolving global environment. Gapuma’s participation reflects our commitment to remaining at the forefront of African trade, export finance, and logistics solutions.
AI and the Future of Physical Commodities Trading
12th November 2025 At Gapuma Group, after 25 years of moving chemicals, fertilisers, and essential commodities from more than 30 countries to over 50 global markets, we are seeing first-hand how artificial intelligence is reshaping the world of physical trading. AI adoption varies widely across our trade routes. In some sourcing markets, AI-driven supply chain systems, automated quality control, and demand forecasting tools are already integrated into daily operations. Elsewhere, progress is slower—often shaped by connectivity limitations, power reliability, and the uneven development of data infrastructure. The technology’s effects are most visible in logistics and price discovery. Predictive models now track port operations, route efficiency, and seasonal demand to optimise cargo flows, particularly for time-sensitive agricultural inputs. Real-time analysis of exchange data, freight markets, and global pricing trends is compressing decision-making windows. Meanwhile, advanced risk models assess everything from currency movements to regulatory changes across multiple jurisdictions simultaneously. Infrastructure remains the decisive factor. High-capacity AI systems perform best where data is structured and connectivity is strong. In other environments, effectiveness depends on agility—mobile-first tools, offline-capable platforms, and lighter models that respond to local trading conditions. At Gapuma, we integrate AI where it adds genuine value—improving logistics, forecasting, and supplier analytics—while remaining grounded in what has always underpinned our business: trusted relationships, deep market knowledge, and sound human judgement. The future of trading is not only digital; it is adaptive.
Tesla’s Profit Slide Highlights Mounting Pressures on Global Manufacturing
23rd October 2025 Tesla has reported record quarterly revenues of almost $28 billion for the three months to the end of September, yet profits fell by more than a third — a stark illustration of the financial pressures now bearing down on global manufacturers. The company cited higher tariffs on imported components and raw materials, increased logistics and energy costs, and substantial investment in research and development, particularly in artificial intelligence. Although demand remained strong, helped by a final wave of buyers seeking to claim expiring US electric vehicle tax credits, these gains were eclipsed by rapidly rising operating expenses. The strain facing Tesla is emblematic of a broader challenge across heavy industry. Manufacturers continue to contend with post-pandemic bottlenecks, volatile freight rates, inflation in energy and labour markets, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Shifting trade policies have prompted many companies to rethink their sourcing models, often prioritising resilience over efficiency. Volume alone is no longer a guarantee of profitability. In an era defined by fragile supply chains and heightened cost pressures, success increasingly hinges on strategic procurement, agile logistics management, and a diversified supplier network. For Gapuma and its global partners in the industrial and chemical sectors, Tesla’s experience underscores the importance of reinforcing resilience at every stage of the value chain. The ability to anticipate disruption, optimise sourcing, and contain input costs has become essential to maintaining competitiveness in today’s unpredictable marketplace.
Innovation in Airborne Logistics: Grid Aero’s “Lifter Lite”
20 August 2025 At Gapuma Group, we are continually inspired by innovations that redefine global supply chains. The recent unveiling of Grid Aero’s Lifter Lite offers a striking example of how rapidly the logistics landscape is evolving. Touted as the “pickup truck of the skies,” this autonomous cargo aircraft combines rugged long-range capability with ultra-low operational cost, a combination with the potential to transform both commercial and defence logistics. Backed by engineering expertise from Joby and Xwing, Grid Aero is positioning the Lifter Lite at the nexus of innovation and practical application. Our founder, Jack Bardakjian, has consistently highlighted the value of entrepreneurial boldness in overcoming inefficiencies in the global movement of goods. Breakthroughs like the Lifter Lite demonstrate the impact of ingenuity, modular engineering, and real-world logistics challenges working in concert. For commodities professionals, the “tyranny of distance” remains a persistent consideration in international trade. Technologies such as the Lifter Lite point to a future where these challenges can be bridged more efficiently, sustainably, and affordably. Gapuma looks forward to tracking Grid Aero’s progress and the ways in which this technology may reshape supply chains worldwide.
Brazil’s Market Decline Highlights Regional Risks
14 August 2025 Brazil’s financial markets experienced renewed turbulence on 13 August, with the Ibovespa index falling 0.9% to 136,687 points, reversing gains from the previous session. The decline underscores how global commodity pressures and domestic fiscal concerns are weighing on Latin America’s largest economy. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced $6 billion in temporary credit lines and tax incentives aimed at supporting exporters and cushioning tariff-related shocks. While these measures provide short-term relief, questions remain over long-term fiscal sustainability and the impact of increased spending without secured revenue streams. Commodity heavyweights Petrobras and Vale were among those affected, with share prices weakening on the back of softer oil and iron ore prices. Corporate results also reflected mixed fortunes: travel company CVC reported larger-than-expected losses, sending its shares down 10%, while construction firm MRV gained more than 6%, highlighting uneven resilience across sectors. For the wider region, Brazil’s market trajectory remains a bellwether. A sustained slowdown in its commodity sector could have knock-on effects for trade flows, investment, currency stability, and logistics networks throughout Latin America. Against the backdrop of optimism in the United States, Europe, and Asia, the caution in Latin America illustrates the region’s heightened sensitivity to Brazil’s fiscal and market dynamics — and the far-reaching implications for global supply chains.
Markets Eye Fiscal Tightening as Commodities Traders Brace for Ripple Effects
6th August 2025 London’s stock markets opened higher on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% in early trading. Yet beneath the initial gains, warning signs are emerging for the real economy — particularly for commodities traders. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to implement “moderate but sustained” tax rises to address a projected £41.2 billion shortfall under her fiscal stability rule. While the National Institute of Economic & Social Research has lifted its 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%, it warns of a “deteriorating” fiscal position. For physical traders such as Gapuma Group, the risks are clear. Fiscal tightening could slow demand for construction materials, chemicals, and energy products. However, the UK’s record pace of renewable energy installations signals longer-term growth in demand for critical minerals and battery components. Political risk is adding to market tension. The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Whitcroft, and Russian officials — scheduled just days before a ceasefire deadline in Ukraine — is fuelling uncertainty in energy markets and raising concerns over global shipping routes. Meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields point to tighter credit conditions, a key challenge for traders reliant on trade finance and freight hedging. At Gapuma, we continue to navigate these intersecting pressures, maintaining resilience in our supply chain while delivering value across global markets. SEO Meta Description:Fiscal tightening, political risk, and shifting demand patterns are testing commodities traders. Gapuma monitors global pressures while adapting to long-term opportunities.
Investing in Future Leaders: An Intern’s Journey at Gapuma
2nd July 2025 At Gapuma, we believe that investing in young talent is not only part of our long-term vision, but also a core pillar of our Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) commitment. Over the years, we’ve been proud to host a growing number of bright, driven interns who gain hands-on experience across our global operations. One such intern is Phume Mazibuko, currently completing a seven-week internship at our London head office. With four weeks behind her, Phume has already made an impact and gained invaluable insight into international trade, procurement, and logistics. Here’s Phume’s account in her own words: “With four weeks completed and only three more weeks to go, I have already gained an extensive amount of knowledge while being at Gapuma. I have worked with both the Procurement and Logistics departments, splitting my time equally between the two. In procurement, I was responsible for carrying through enquiries. I was tasked with researching chemical suppliers and contacting the requisite suppliers based on client specifications. This task improved my communication and problem-solving skills. Furthermore, the procurement team ensured that I gained technical knowledge of the forward freight industry by learning Incoterms, organising Certificates of Analysis and more. Another key task was conducting a regional freight market check. This was significant for my understanding of market patterns and would provide both the Procurement and Logistics teams with up-to-date information, vital for drafting client quotes and planning agreements between clients and suppliers. While working with Logistics, I was required to update a Know Your Client Excel sheet and ensure that the relevant information is correctly and thoroughly logged for future reference when the team needs to carry through a shipment. This improved my attention to detail, my risk assessment skills, and my deeper understanding of company and industry standards. Through all of this, the team environments at Gapuma remained supportive and collaborative, and thus, I have been able to learn a great deal from my supervisors and colleagues when given regular and in-depth feedback on tasks. This experience has affirmed my interest in the transportation of bulk liquids but has especially opened me up to a world of freight forwarding and given me the confidence to pursue a role in this field. Although my experience is not yet over, I am grateful to have worked with such a dedicated and positive team, so I would highly recommend this internship to others interested in international trade.” We’re proud to play a small part in the journeys of emerging professionals like Phume — and we look forward to welcoming many more.
UK Trade Agreements Signal Renewed Optimism for Commodities and Cross-Border Investment
20th May 2025 Recent developments in UK trade policy are creating a more stable and favourable environment for international business, with important implications for commodities trading, supply chain management, and long-term investment planning. The UK government has signed landmark trade agreements with the European Union, United States, and India, and has announced that a pact with Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, is next on the agenda. These moves are helping to re-establish the UK as a strategic global hub for commerce—particularly in sectors where clarity of regulation and efficiency of logistics are paramount. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has confirmed that Britain’s economic outlook has improved as a result of these recent agreements, with UK GDP growth upgraded and investor sentiment strengthening. Most notably, the UK’s new accord with the EU—the most comprehensive since Brexit—includes updated cooperation on trade, fishing, defence and energy, and offers reduced checks on UK food exports. This has the potential to ease frictions in supply chains and streamline cross-border operations. For Gapuma Group, which operates across energy, chemicals, logistics, and infrastructure in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, this development affirms a positive shift. The return of a rules-based, multilateral trading framework supports our mission to deliver secure, agile, and responsible distribution of critical materials worldwide. The prospect of deeper trade relations with the Gulf region also aligns with our strategy in energy and infrastructure sectors, where we support both private and government-backed initiatives across high-growth markets. With enhanced access and reciprocal standards, we anticipate accelerated opportunities for structured trade, financial partnerships, and end-to-end logistics. “We welcome the renewed momentum in UK trade negotiations,” said a Gapuma Group spokesperson. “Increased certainty benefits the entire value chain—from origin to end user—and strengthens the case for international investment in physical commodities and the infrastructure that supports them.” As the UK continues to strengthen its global trading relationships, Gapuma remains committed to advancing sustainable, resilient, and efficient trade across every region we serve.
Gapuma Strengthens Industry Ties at ChemExpo 2025
08th May 2025 Gapuma was proud to participate in ChemExpo 2025, South Asia’s premier international exhibition for the chemical industry, held in Mumbai last week. The event brought together over 500 exhibitors and thousands of delegates from across the globe, offering a vital platform for knowledge exchange, commercial collaboration, and industry insight. Representing Gapuma at the event, our Channel and Product Manager, Sunil Bahl, engaged with a broad range of suppliers, distributors, and manufacturers operating across key sectors — including pharmaceuticals, personal care, polymers, textiles, industrial coatings, and more. Among the many constructive conversations was a detailed exchange with senior representatives of Sarex Overseas, a respected name in the speciality chemicals space with a strong international reputation built over more than sixty years. Their focus on diversified application areas closely reflects Gapuma’s own commitment to providing integrated solutions to clients across complex global markets. Participation in ChemExpo 2025 reaffirmed the value of physical industry gatherings in building trust, uncovering innovation, and fostering long-term relationships. As demand continues to rise for reliable, ethical, and sustainable chemical sourcing, Gapuma remains at the forefront of efforts to connect world-class producers with end users across emerging and established economies. We extend our thanks to the organisers of ChemExpo for curating such a vibrant and forward-looking event. We look forward to building on the many conversations started in Mumbai and to continuing our mission of delivering value through global trade, sectoral expertise, and partnership-led growth.