The Global Ethanol Rush: Energy Security Meets Agricultural Reality
19th November 2025 The global ethanol market is undergoing rapid and far-reaching expansion, driven by government mandates and a growing focus on energy security. Yet behind the headlines about renewable fuels lies a far more intricate story—one shaped by agricultural pressures, shifting trade flows and the practical constraints of supply chains. Brazil is leading innovation in maize-based ethanol, with production expected to reach 30% of total output by 2026–27, equating to 10.6 billion litres. The economics are increasingly favourable: maize ethanol costs around BRL 1.85 per litre compared with BRL 2.45 for sugarcane, while valuable byproducts strengthen margins. Still, concerns over biomass feedstock availability for steam generation are becoming more pronounced. Indonesia is preparing to implement mandatory ethanol blending by 2028, aiming for a 5% mix to displace 5% of its 22.8 million kilolitre fuel imports. At COP30, Pertamina highlighted Brazil’s success as a model for reducing dependence on fossil fuels through bioethanol. However, the challenges are significant. In India, maize farmers are calling for a “Maize Control Order” after prices fell ₹600 per quintal below the minimum support price. Ethanol-driven maize diversion has transformed India from a 3.7 MT exporter into a projected 1 MT importer, pushing prices from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000 per tonne. Livestock sectors are now urging duty-free access to GM maize to safeguard feed supplies. Indonesia faces its own hurdles, including inconsistent raw material availability, volatile pricing, and limited infrastructure for production and distribution. For a global commodities partner like Gapuma Group, the ethanol boom represents both opportunity and complexity in equal measure. The reshaping of agricultural supply chains across multiple continents is creating heightened demand for strategic procurement, logistics capability and real-time market intelligence. Long-term success will depend on a clear understanding of policy drivers, farmer economics and infrastructure readiness—factors that will ultimately determine which national programmes deliver on their ambitions.
Maize Diversion – Fuel vs Food: Is India’s Ethanol Ambition Outpacing Agricultural Reality?
31st July 2025 India’s surge in maize diversion for ethanol production — from just 0.8 million tonnes in 2022–23 to a projected 12.8 million tonnes in 2024–25 — is raising urgent questions across agriculture, nutrition, and trade sectors. More than a third of the nation’s maize output is now earmarked for fuel. The consequences are already evident: rising poultry feed costs, reduced food availability in rural communities, and a sharp increase in import dependency. Maize imports have soared by almost 8,000% in the same period, transforming India from a net exporter to a net importer of the grain for the first time in decades. Maize plays a dual role in India’s economy. Beyond being a biofuel feedstock, it is a staple food in many tribal regions and the cornerstone of the animal feed industry. Redirecting such a large share of output to ethanol, encouraged by pricing incentives and blending mandates, risks eroding food security and distorting crop priorities. Industry experts and policymakers are calling for a recalibration: ethanol expansion should be based on surplus production and sustainable sourcing, ensuring India’s energy ambitions do not compromise agricultural resilience. SEO Meta Description:India’s rapid maize diversion to ethanol risks higher feed costs, reduced food supply, and soaring imports. Experts urge balancing energy targets with agricultural stability.