By Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director, Gapuma Group 30th September 2025 The Shifting Landscape of Trade International trade is rarely static, but in 2025 the speed of change is sharper than at any point in recent memory. For companies in commodities, freight and logistics, government policy has become the decisive variable. Once regarded as background conditions, tariffs, quotas, subsidies and regulatory standards now shape the commercial terrain in fundamental ways. The World Trade Organization’s April 2025 Global Trade Outlook was blunt: merchandise trade, forecast only months earlier to grow by nearly 3 per cent, is now expected to contract. The WTO cited a mixture of tariff escalation, trade policy uncertainty, and geopolitical friction. UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update reinforced the point, warning that “uncertainty has become the new tariff, costing global trade and hurting developing economies.” For companies that carry raw materials across oceans, finance trade flows, or build supply chains in emerging markets, the implications are profound. Business leaders no longer treat government policy as a background risk; they now view it as a first-order constraint and, potentially, a first-order opportunity. Tariffs, Uncertainty and the New Geography of Risk Tariffs are the most visible intervention, but their effect is double-edged. They may shelter domestic producers or generate government revenue, yet they simultaneously raise costs, shrink consumer choice, and discourage efficiency. In sectors such as agriculture and basic manufacturing, where margins are narrow, tariffs can spell the difference between profitability and collapse. Even more destabilising is uncertainty itself. Firms can plan for a tariff of 10 or 20 per cent; they cannot plan for rules that change overnight or for prolonged ambiguity. That is why many economists describe policy uncertainty as a “hidden tariff.” In practice, uncertainty forces businesses to hoard inventory, delay investment and hedge supply chains across multiple jurisdictions—costly measures that sap productivity and slow growth. Beyond tariffs, governments wield a wider toolkit. Quotas, licensing requirements, subsidies, export restrictions, and increasingly, green conditionality—such as carbon border adjustments or ESG-based due diligence—reshape trade just as forcefully. For global operators, the complexity lies not in a single instrument but in the unpredictable layering of them. “Policy ambiguity is now as damaging as a tariff shock itself.” The African Chessboard Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Africa. The continent stands at the confluence of immense potential and fragile policy environments. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the boldest trade pact in history, theoretically uniting more than fifty economies under one tariff regime. If implemented effectively, it could boost intra-African trade by a third within a decade. Yet the reality remains mixed. Infrastructure bottlenecks, slow regulatory harmonisation, and uneven institutional quality mean that the AfCFTA’s promise is not yet fully realised. In some corridors, intra-African trade has actually declined, with smaller economies struggling to integrate into regional value chains. At the same time, Africa’s dependence on external arrangements leaves it vulnerable. The looming expiration of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) threatens to wipe out preferential access for key exports. South Africa’s automotive sector and Lesotho’s garment industry could face catastrophic declines if alternative arrangements are not secured. Equally concerning are the ripple effects of external tariffs, such as the most recent proposals from Washington. Analysts warn that sudden tariff shocks could push African economies into policy contortions—experimenting with import substitution or hastily diversifying markets, often at high cost and with limited success. Institutions, Credibility and Commercial Confidence The lesson from Africa is clear: tariffs and treaties matter, but institutional credibility matters more. Scholarly research demonstrates that countries with strong governance and transparent institutions enjoy greater gains from openness. Where customs rules are predictable, contracts enforceable, and disputes resolvable, businesses are willing to invest, expand and innovate. Where institutions are weak, even preferential access offers little comfort. In Africa and beyond, credible institutions are the bedrock of commercial confidence. Without them, uncertainty becomes a structural tax. “In Africa, institutions matter more than tariff levels—credibility is the true currency of trade.” From Horse-Trading to Economic Logic Trade policy is often entangled in geopolitics. Governments use tariffs as bargaining chips, subsidies as industrial weapons, and regulatory standards as instruments of soft power. Yet this political calculus carries costs. When economic decisions are subordinated to horse-trading or dogma, the commercial system as a whole suffers. Here Jack Bardakjian offers a pointed reflection: “Government has the potential for fundamental impact on international trade. But its choices must be based on economic logic, not on geopolitical contingency, horse-trading or dogma. The greatest threat to global security today is commercial insecurity.” This observation captures the paradox of our time. Governments can be catalysts for growth or agents of instability. The difference lies not in whether they intervene, but in how and why. What Business Needs from Policy If uncertainty is the new tariff, what would stability look like? For businesses navigating this complex terrain, several needs are consistent and urgent. First, predictable frameworks: firms require tariff regimes and industrial policies that are not only transparent but durable, with clear timelines and binding commitments. Second, infrastructure investment: ports, corridors, energy grids and digital trade platforms form the arteries of commerce. Without them, even the most liberal tariff schedules are of limited use. Third, streamlined processes: simplified customs, modernised payment systems, and supportive visa and mobility regimes reduce friction and encourage expansion. Finally, policy alignment: in Africa particularly, external partners must align aid and trade strategies with AfCFTA ambitions, rather than fragmenting the landscape with bilateral patchworks. “Businesses are not asking for protection. They are asking for predictability.” From Risk to Opportunity Trade policy will always be contested terrain, shaped by competing interests and shifting priorities. But governments that commit to stability, transparency and credible enforcement can turn policy from a source of risk into a foundation for resilience. For companies like Gapuma Group, the challenge is not to insulate themselves from turbulence but to anticipate it, adapt to it, and—where possible—help shape it. That means engaging with governments, investing in infrastructure, and supporting […]