The Global Ethanol Rush: Energy Security Meets Agricultural Reality
19th November 2025 The global ethanol market is undergoing rapid and far-reaching expansion, driven by government mandates and a growing focus on energy security. Yet behind the headlines about renewable fuels lies a far more intricate story—one shaped by agricultural pressures, shifting trade flows and the practical constraints of supply chains. Brazil is leading innovation in maize-based ethanol, with production expected to reach 30% of total output by 2026–27, equating to 10.6 billion litres. The economics are increasingly favourable: maize ethanol costs around BRL 1.85 per litre compared with BRL 2.45 for sugarcane, while valuable byproducts strengthen margins. Still, concerns over biomass feedstock availability for steam generation are becoming more pronounced. Indonesia is preparing to implement mandatory ethanol blending by 2028, aiming for a 5% mix to displace 5% of its 22.8 million kilolitre fuel imports. At COP30, Pertamina highlighted Brazil’s success as a model for reducing dependence on fossil fuels through bioethanol. However, the challenges are significant. In India, maize farmers are calling for a “Maize Control Order” after prices fell ₹600 per quintal below the minimum support price. Ethanol-driven maize diversion has transformed India from a 3.7 MT exporter into a projected 1 MT importer, pushing prices from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000 per tonne. Livestock sectors are now urging duty-free access to GM maize to safeguard feed supplies. Indonesia faces its own hurdles, including inconsistent raw material availability, volatile pricing, and limited infrastructure for production and distribution. For a global commodities partner like Gapuma Group, the ethanol boom represents both opportunity and complexity in equal measure. The reshaping of agricultural supply chains across multiple continents is creating heightened demand for strategic procurement, logistics capability and real-time market intelligence. Long-term success will depend on a clear understanding of policy drivers, farmer economics and infrastructure readiness—factors that will ultimately determine which national programmes deliver on their ambitions.
Gapuma Strengthens Its Footprint in LATAM
30 September 2025 Gapuma continues to expand its presence across Latin America, with our Channel & Product Manager for LATAM, Sunil Bahl, completing an extended visit to Brazil from 17–26 September 2025. The centrepiece of the trip was the Abrafati Show in São Paulo (23–25 September), the region’s most prestigious gathering for the paints and coatings industry. Abrafati brings together global suppliers, regional manufacturers, and sector leaders, serving as a vital platform for innovation, networking, and business development. For Gapuma, participation in this event provided the opportunity to deepen existing relationships, explore collaborations that could introduce innovative solutions into the Brazilian market, and reinforce our engagement with global suppliers and industry stakeholders. Brazil, as one of the principal engines of growth in Latin America, remains central to our regional strategy. Sunil’s visit highlights our long-term commitment to fostering strong partnerships, encouraging knowledge exchange, and supporting sustainable growth across LATAM.
Brazil’s Market Decline Highlights Regional Risks
14 August 2025 Brazil’s financial markets experienced renewed turbulence on 13 August, with the Ibovespa index falling 0.9% to 136,687 points, reversing gains from the previous session. The decline underscores how global commodity pressures and domestic fiscal concerns are weighing on Latin America’s largest economy. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced $6 billion in temporary credit lines and tax incentives aimed at supporting exporters and cushioning tariff-related shocks. While these measures provide short-term relief, questions remain over long-term fiscal sustainability and the impact of increased spending without secured revenue streams. Commodity heavyweights Petrobras and Vale were among those affected, with share prices weakening on the back of softer oil and iron ore prices. Corporate results also reflected mixed fortunes: travel company CVC reported larger-than-expected losses, sending its shares down 10%, while construction firm MRV gained more than 6%, highlighting uneven resilience across sectors. For the wider region, Brazil’s market trajectory remains a bellwether. A sustained slowdown in its commodity sector could have knock-on effects for trade flows, investment, currency stability, and logistics networks throughout Latin America. Against the backdrop of optimism in the United States, Europe, and Asia, the caution in Latin America illustrates the region’s heightened sensitivity to Brazil’s fiscal and market dynamics — and the far-reaching implications for global supply chains.