Is China Winning Because of Tariffs, Not Despite Them?
14th January 2026 China’s record $1.19 trillion trade surplus for 2025 poses an intriguing question: are tariffs inadvertently strengthening Beijing’s global position? Whilst Trump’s levies successfully reduced US-China trade, they’ve seemingly accelerated an unintended consequence: China’s pivot towards emerging markets. As weaker economies struggle with rising input costs and disrupted supply chains, China has expanded aggressively into Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America—regions where competitors lack its manufacturing scale and infrastructure depth. According to the Financial Times, China’s export machine has proved “remarkably resilient,” with green technology and AI products driving growth in new markets. The Economist notes that whilst other exporters face margin pressure from tariffs, China’s vast domestic production capacity allows it to absorb costs and undercut rivals who cannot. This creates a troubling dynamic: tariffs intended to level the playing field may actually consolidate China’s dominance. Smaller economies face a double burden—higher costs from tariffs whilst simultaneously losing market share to Chinese alternatives in third countries. Bloomberg data shows Chinese goods penetrating markets previously served by Southeast Asian manufacturers, as buyers seek the lowest prices amidst global inflation. The paradox is striking. Punitive measures meant to constrain China may be eliminating its mid-tier competition instead. With a weak yuan, overcapacity from its property crisis, and unmatched scale, China can weather storms that sink smaller vessels. The question for businesses isn’t whether to prepare for a China-dominated supply landscape—it’s whether current trade policies are accelerating rather than preventing it. Perhaps scale, not sanctions, determines who survives the tariff era.
TRUMP’S IRAN TARIFF GAMBIT: A CALCULATED RISK THAT COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL TRADE
13 January 2026 Amid the chaos continuing to envelop and ravage Iran, where a large-scale protests sparked by currency collapse have been met by a brutal crackdown by authorities—with large-scale deaths and mass arrests reported—President Trump has announced immediate 25% tariffs on nations conducting business with Iran. The move introduces a new element of uncertainty into global commerce, with potentially significant ramifications for the hard-won US-China trade détente. The tariffs target major economies including China, India, Turkey, the UAE and Brazil—all substantial Iranian trading partners. China faces particular exposure, having imported approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports through independent refineries whilst maintaining over $9 billion in documented trade. The new levy could push cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods from the current 30.8% to approximately 56%, threatening the fragile truce established at last October’s South Korea summit that granted Washington access to critical rare earth minerals. The policy’s ambiguity—Trump provided no details on what constitutes “doing business” or how enforcement will proceed—creates immediate complications for global supply chains. India’s $1.34 billion bilateral trade with Iran, Turkey’s $5.68 billion commerce across their shared border, and Brazil’s $3 billion agricultural exports all fall within potential scope. The UAE’s role as a re-export hub for Iranian goods adds further complexity to implementation. For China specifically, the stakes extend beyond trade metrics. Beijing secured rare earth export agreements and a presidential visit to China scheduled for April as part of the détente. Trump administration adviser Peter Navarro previously cautioned against escalating Chinese tariffs further, warning “we don’t want to get to a point where we hurt ourselves.” Whether carve-outs emerge remains unclear, though the White House has yet to publish legal authority or implementation details for the Iran-related levies. As businesses navigate this evolving landscape, the incident underscores how rapidly geopolitical developments can reshape commercial calculations, requiring organisations to maintain strategic flexibility in an increasingly volatile trading environment.
Starmer Bets Big on India: Mission to Double Bilateral Trade by 2030
AP-POOL photo by Kin-Cheung 7th October 2025 As Prime Minister Keir Starmer embarks on his first official visit to India (8–9 October), the scale and ambition of the delegation send a clear message: the United Kingdom now views India as a central pillar of its long-term trade strategy. The recently concluded UK–India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) represents a decisive turning point. More than a conventional trade deal, it signals a strategic shift — cutting tariffs on over 90 per cent of goods and widening market access across both goods and services. Negotiators on both sides are already focused on an even greater objective: doubling bilateral trade by 2030. To put this in context, trade in goods and services in the year to March 2025 was valued at approximately £44.1 billion. Doubling that figure would push the relationship towards, or beyond, £88 billion — a striking illustration of the shared ambition now driving both nations. The breadth of the delegation accompanying the Prime Minister underscores the significance of the mission. More than one hundred business leaders, university vice-chancellors, and figures from technology, culture, and innovation are travelling to India. This is a working visit, not a symbolic tour — designed to secure agreements, strengthen partnerships, and build the foundations for deep, long-term economic engagement. It reflects a marked shift in mindset: India is no longer treated as a secondary market but as a cornerstone of the UK’s future growth strategy. Symbolism will play its part when Starmer meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Mumbai — India’s financial powerhouse and a city emblematic of the country’s dynamism and scale. Choosing Mumbai for such a meeting highlights the central role that commerce, investment, and economic cooperation will play in the evolving partnership. The timing of the visit could hardly be more pertinent. India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy, with growth exceeding 6 per cent annually and forecast to reach as high as 8 per cent this year. Its economic momentum, demographic strength, and expanding global influence ensure it will shape the international landscape in the decades ahead. For the UK, forging a position within that story is both strategic and forward-looking. This visit is therefore about more than agreements or diplomatic ceremony. It is about signalling intent, building momentum, and recognising that the UK’s economic future will increasingly align with India’s rise on the global stage.