Intelligence in Motion: How AI Is Shaping the Future of Real-World Commodity Trading
By Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director, Gapuma November 2025 Artificial intelligence is reshaping business thinking faster than any technological leap since the personal computer. Everywhere you look — from central banks and shipping lines to fertiliser allocation systems and metals hedging desks — AI is not merely present; it is transformative. But let me be clear from the outset: in physical commodities trading — real shipments, real facilities, real partners and real industry outcomes — AI is an instrument, not an overlord. The world I work in every day, and have for decades, is one where trust sits next to data, where geopolitical insight sits beside logistics discipline, and where physical execution remains the final measure of excellence. AI is advancing rapidly, yes; but the winners in our industry will be those who marry machine intelligence with human judgement, relationships, and operational grit. Technology does not replace edge — it sharpens it. Gapuma’s mission remains unchanged: strengthen supply security, serve industry, and advance African and global development with integrity and expertise. What changes are the tools available to us. Today, AI is becoming one of those tools — and a decisive one when deployed responsibly. A Trader’s View: Why AI Matters — and How It Actually Works in the Real World There is no shortage of breathless commentary about AI transforming everything overnight. But traders do not operate in headlines; we operate in risk, delivery, deadlines, counterpart confidence, and execution. AI earns its place in our toolbox when it helps us: anticipate market shifts before they become headlines identify shipping or supply risks early verify counterpart integrity with greater rigour accelerate due-diligence and compliance sharpen pricing and risk frameworks support ESG accountability at scale It is fashionable to describe AI as revolutionary. In commodities, I’d argue it is evolutionary — but evolution can be just as powerful when applied with discipline and insight. As one academic team from Imperial College London recently concluded in a study on AI models for forecasting commodity markets: “AI-driven meta-learning improves long-term commodity price forecasting by synthesising multiple input horizons.” — Charouif, Sommerfeld & Plancherel, Imperial College London That’s academic language for a very practical truth: AI gives us more eyes and more ears. It enhances intuition. It does not replace it. Commodity Trading: Still a Human Arena — Now With Enhanced Vision The essence of physical trade remains unchanged: We build trust. We secure supply. We price risk. We move goods. We honour commitments. No algorithm negotiates port clearance in West Africa at midnight. No model persuades a fertiliser supplier in the Gulf to prioritise your cargo in a tight season. No chatbot navigates a customs challenge in East Africa or discusses storage options in Alexandria with the nuance local context demands. However, what AI does exceptionally well is keep watch when humans cannot. It reads data the way experienced traders read tone. It provides alertness at scale. A senior consultant from Oliver Wyman summarised the inflection point perfectly: “Leading commodity traders are embracing AI to expand their competitive edge.” — James Koh, Oliver Wyman Partner This isn’t hype — it’s strategic positioning. Where AI Adds Immediate Value to Physical Commodity Trading Market Perception and Pattern Recognition Today’s markets react not only to fundamentals, but to sentiment, political speech, shipping news, drought forecasts and mining output rumours. Professor Tom James, a respected authority in commodity risk, put it bluntly: “Sentiment is data — if you have the vision to measure it.” — Professor Tom James AI gives us that vision. It reads signals across thousands of sources at once. That does not eliminate human analysis — it elevates it. Early Risk Detection in Shipping and Logistics Gapuma ships into ports where efficiency ranges from world-class to emergent-capacity. Predictive models now scan: AIS vessel data weather disruptions insurance alerts conflicts and sanctions changes port congestion and labour risk As the CTRM Centre’s analysts recently noted: “The most promise lies where data, process and domain expertise align.” — Commodity Technology Advisory (Vasey & Reames) Exactly — the machine watches; the trader chooses. Counterparty & Compliance Integrity Today’s regulatory landscape — sanctions, ESG scrutiny, beneficial-ownership transparency — demands speed and depth. AI can scan millions of data points in seconds. A compliance advisor recently said: “AI expands compliance capacity by identifying behavioural anomalies long before traditional systems would.” We still check, question and verify — but with greater armour. Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning Supply chains are not linear; they are networks. AI allows us to test assumptions: What if ammonia supply tightens? What if a weather disruption affects crop cycles? What if a shipping route becomes militarily sensitive? The Bank of England has warned: “Automation may magnify systemic errors if not paired with strong governance and human oversight.” That is exactly right. AI makes us faster. Governance keeps us wise. The Human Edge: Why Traders Still Matter More Than Ever Here is the truth the headlines rarely capture: The more technology enters trading, the more valuable experience becomes. Computers can forecast price pressure — but they do not know which mill owner in Cairo is likely to change tender specifications at short notice, or which producer in India prioritises long-term reliability over seasonal margin. Machines optimise for volatility. Humans optimise for continuity and relationships. A commodities specialist recently observed: “The trading houses that win will integrate AI without losing the human character of trade.” Precisely. Respect for partners, consistency in supply, real-world judgement — that is still where advantage lives. Education — The Next Strategic Battleground Traditionally, traders learned their craft through markets, mentors and experience. That DNA remains — but today’s demands are broader. Partnership between trading instinct and digital fluency is now essential. Universities are responding. Imperial College London now offers dedicated AI and machine learning training for commercial professionals, designed to bridge real-world business with advanced analytics. This is not “tech for tech’s sake.” It is capability development. And at Gapuma, we see skill development as investment, not cost. The next […]
Shaping the Currents: How Government Trade Policy Steers Global Supply Chains
By Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director, Gapuma Group 30th September 2025 The Shifting Landscape of Trade International trade is rarely static, but in 2025 the speed of change is sharper than at any point in recent memory. For companies in commodities, freight and logistics, government policy has become the decisive variable. Once regarded as background conditions, tariffs, quotas, subsidies and regulatory standards now shape the commercial terrain in fundamental ways. The World Trade Organization’s April 2025 Global Trade Outlook was blunt: merchandise trade, forecast only months earlier to grow by nearly 3 per cent, is now expected to contract. The WTO cited a mixture of tariff escalation, trade policy uncertainty, and geopolitical friction. UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update reinforced the point, warning that “uncertainty has become the new tariff, costing global trade and hurting developing economies.” For companies that carry raw materials across oceans, finance trade flows, or build supply chains in emerging markets, the implications are profound. Business leaders no longer treat government policy as a background risk; they now view it as a first-order constraint and, potentially, a first-order opportunity. Tariffs, Uncertainty and the New Geography of Risk Tariffs are the most visible intervention, but their effect is double-edged. They may shelter domestic producers or generate government revenue, yet they simultaneously raise costs, shrink consumer choice, and discourage efficiency. In sectors such as agriculture and basic manufacturing, where margins are narrow, tariffs can spell the difference between profitability and collapse. Even more destabilising is uncertainty itself. Firms can plan for a tariff of 10 or 20 per cent; they cannot plan for rules that change overnight or for prolonged ambiguity. That is why many economists describe policy uncertainty as a “hidden tariff.” In practice, uncertainty forces businesses to hoard inventory, delay investment and hedge supply chains across multiple jurisdictions—costly measures that sap productivity and slow growth. Beyond tariffs, governments wield a wider toolkit. Quotas, licensing requirements, subsidies, export restrictions, and increasingly, green conditionality—such as carbon border adjustments or ESG-based due diligence—reshape trade just as forcefully. For global operators, the complexity lies not in a single instrument but in the unpredictable layering of them. “Policy ambiguity is now as damaging as a tariff shock itself.” The African Chessboard Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Africa. The continent stands at the confluence of immense potential and fragile policy environments. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the boldest trade pact in history, theoretically uniting more than fifty economies under one tariff regime. If implemented effectively, it could boost intra-African trade by a third within a decade. Yet the reality remains mixed. Infrastructure bottlenecks, slow regulatory harmonisation, and uneven institutional quality mean that the AfCFTA’s promise is not yet fully realised. In some corridors, intra-African trade has actually declined, with smaller economies struggling to integrate into regional value chains. At the same time, Africa’s dependence on external arrangements leaves it vulnerable. The looming expiration of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) threatens to wipe out preferential access for key exports. South Africa’s automotive sector and Lesotho’s garment industry could face catastrophic declines if alternative arrangements are not secured. Equally concerning are the ripple effects of external tariffs, such as the most recent proposals from Washington. Analysts warn that sudden tariff shocks could push African economies into policy contortions—experimenting with import substitution or hastily diversifying markets, often at high cost and with limited success. Institutions, Credibility and Commercial Confidence The lesson from Africa is clear: tariffs and treaties matter, but institutional credibility matters more. Scholarly research demonstrates that countries with strong governance and transparent institutions enjoy greater gains from openness. Where customs rules are predictable, contracts enforceable, and disputes resolvable, businesses are willing to invest, expand and innovate. Where institutions are weak, even preferential access offers little comfort. In Africa and beyond, credible institutions are the bedrock of commercial confidence. Without them, uncertainty becomes a structural tax. “In Africa, institutions matter more than tariff levels—credibility is the true currency of trade.” From Horse-Trading to Economic Logic Trade policy is often entangled in geopolitics. Governments use tariffs as bargaining chips, subsidies as industrial weapons, and regulatory standards as instruments of soft power. Yet this political calculus carries costs. When economic decisions are subordinated to horse-trading or dogma, the commercial system as a whole suffers. Here Jack Bardakjian offers a pointed reflection: “Government has the potential for fundamental impact on international trade. But its choices must be based on economic logic, not on geopolitical contingency, horse-trading or dogma. The greatest threat to global security today is commercial insecurity.” This observation captures the paradox of our time. Governments can be catalysts for growth or agents of instability. The difference lies not in whether they intervene, but in how and why. What Business Needs from Policy If uncertainty is the new tariff, what would stability look like? For businesses navigating this complex terrain, several needs are consistent and urgent. First, predictable frameworks: firms require tariff regimes and industrial policies that are not only transparent but durable, with clear timelines and binding commitments. Second, infrastructure investment: ports, corridors, energy grids and digital trade platforms form the arteries of commerce. Without them, even the most liberal tariff schedules are of limited use. Third, streamlined processes: simplified customs, modernised payment systems, and supportive visa and mobility regimes reduce friction and encourage expansion. Finally, policy alignment: in Africa particularly, external partners must align aid and trade strategies with AfCFTA ambitions, rather than fragmenting the landscape with bilateral patchworks. “Businesses are not asking for protection. They are asking for predictability.” From Risk to Opportunity Trade policy will always be contested terrain, shaped by competing interests and shifting priorities. But governments that commit to stability, transparency and credible enforcement can turn policy from a source of risk into a foundation for resilience. For companies like Gapuma Group, the challenge is not to insulate themselves from turbulence but to anticipate it, adapt to it, and—where possible—help shape it. That means engaging with governments, investing in infrastructure, and supporting […]