Intelligence in Motion: How AI Is Shaping the Future of Real-World Commodity Trading
By Jack Bardakjian, Group Managing Director, Gapuma
November 2025
Artificial intelligence is reshaping business thinking faster than any technological leap since the personal computer. Everywhere you look — from central banks and shipping lines to fertiliser allocation systems and metals hedging desks — AI is not merely present; it is transformative.
But let me be clear from the outset: in physical commodities trading — real shipments, real facilities, real partners and real industry outcomes — AI is an instrument, not an overlord.
The world I work in every day, and have for decades, is one where trust sits next to data, where geopolitical insight sits beside logistics discipline, and where physical execution remains the final measure of excellence.
AI is advancing rapidly, yes; but the winners in our industry will be those who marry machine intelligence with human judgement, relationships, and operational grit. Technology does not replace edge — it sharpens it.
Gapuma’s mission remains unchanged: strengthen supply security, serve industry, and advance African and global development with integrity and expertise. What changes are the tools available to us.
Today, AI is becoming one of those tools — and a decisive one when deployed responsibly.
A Trader’s View: Why AI Matters — and How It Actually Works in the Real World
There is no shortage of breathless commentary about AI transforming everything overnight. But traders do not operate in headlines; we operate in risk, delivery, deadlines, counterpart confidence, and execution.
AI earns its place in our toolbox when it helps us:
- anticipate market shifts before they become headlines
- identify shipping or supply risks early
- verify counterpart integrity with greater rigour
- accelerate due-diligence and compliance
- sharpen pricing and risk frameworks
- support ESG accountability at scale
It is fashionable to describe AI as revolutionary. In commodities, I’d argue it is evolutionary — but evolution can be just as powerful when applied with discipline and insight.
As one academic team from Imperial College London recently concluded in a study on AI models for forecasting commodity markets:
“AI-driven meta-learning improves long-term commodity price forecasting by synthesising multiple input horizons.”
— Charouif, Sommerfeld & Plancherel, Imperial College London
That’s academic language for a very practical truth: AI gives us more eyes and more ears.
It enhances intuition.
It does not replace it.
Commodity Trading: Still a Human Arena — Now With Enhanced Vision
The essence of physical trade remains unchanged:
- We build trust.
- We secure supply.
- We price risk.
- We move goods.
- We honour commitments.
No algorithm negotiates port clearance in West Africa at midnight.
No model persuades a fertiliser supplier in the Gulf to prioritise your cargo in a tight season.
No chatbot navigates a customs challenge in East Africa or discusses storage options in Alexandria with the nuance local context demands.
However, what AI does exceptionally well is keep watch when humans cannot. It reads data the way experienced traders read tone. It provides alertness at scale.
A senior consultant from Oliver Wyman summarised the inflection point perfectly:
“Leading commodity traders are embracing AI to expand their competitive edge.”
— James Koh, Oliver Wyman Partner
This isn’t hype — it’s strategic positioning.
Where AI Adds Immediate Value to Physical Commodity Trading
- Market Perception and Pattern Recognition
Today’s markets react not only to fundamentals, but to sentiment, political speech, shipping news, drought forecasts and mining output rumours.
Professor Tom James, a respected authority in commodity risk, put it bluntly:
“Sentiment is data — if you have the vision to measure it.”
— Professor Tom James
AI gives us that vision.
It reads signals across thousands of sources at once.
That does not eliminate human analysis — it elevates it.
- Early Risk Detection in Shipping and Logistics
Gapuma ships into ports where efficiency ranges from world-class to emergent-capacity. Predictive models now scan:
- AIS vessel data
- weather disruptions
- insurance alerts
- conflicts and sanctions changes
- port congestion and labour risk
As the CTRM Centre’s analysts recently noted:
“The most promise lies where data, process and domain expertise align.”
— Commodity Technology Advisory (Vasey & Reames)
Exactly — the machine watches; the trader chooses.
- Counterparty & Compliance Integrity
Today’s regulatory landscape — sanctions, ESG scrutiny, beneficial-ownership transparency — demands speed and depth. AI can scan millions of data points in seconds.
A compliance advisor recently said:
“AI expands compliance capacity by identifying behavioural anomalies long before traditional systems would.”
We still check, question and verify — but with greater armour.
- Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning
Supply chains are not linear; they are networks. AI allows us to test assumptions:
- What if ammonia supply tightens?
- What if a weather disruption affects crop cycles?
- What if a shipping route becomes militarily sensitive?
The Bank of England has warned:
“Automation may magnify systemic errors if not paired with strong governance and human oversight.”
That is exactly right.
AI makes us faster. Governance keeps us wise.
The Human Edge: Why Traders Still Matter More Than Ever
Here is the truth the headlines rarely capture:
The more technology enters trading, the more valuable experience becomes.
Computers can forecast price pressure — but they do not know which mill owner in Cairo is likely to change tender specifications at short notice, or which producer in India prioritises long-term reliability over seasonal margin.
Machines optimise for volatility.
Humans optimise for continuity and relationships.
A commodities specialist recently observed:
“The trading houses that win will integrate AI without losing the human character of trade.”
Precisely.
Respect for partners, consistency in supply, real-world judgement — that is still where advantage lives.
Education — The Next Strategic Battleground
Traditionally, traders learned their craft through markets, mentors and experience. That DNA remains — but today’s demands are broader.
Partnership between trading instinct and digital fluency is now essential.
Universities are responding. Imperial College London now offers dedicated AI and machine learning training for commercial professionals, designed to bridge real-world business with advanced analytics.
This is not “tech for tech’s sake.”
It is capability development.
And at Gapuma, we see skill development as investment, not cost.
The next generation of traders will combine:
- geopolitical reading
- data-analysis capability
- ESG literacy
- logistics depth
- commercial instinct
- ethical judgement
- and emotional intelligence
Technology cannot generate trust.
But the people who can wield technology and earn trust will be unstoppable.
The African and Emerging Market Context
Africa’s industrialisation requires security of input materials and transparency in sourcing. AI will help ensure:
- pricing fairness
- efficient supply routing
- fraud prevention
- policy compliance
- emission-tracing and ESG monitoring
- transparency between public and private actors
For frontier markets, AI does not replace development — it accelerates and safeguards it.
Gapuma operates at this nexus: global supply, emerging-market deployment, risk discipline and long-term partnership. AI supports this mission by enhancing visibility, not removing responsibility.
What AI Cannot Do — and Must Never Be Allowed to Do
AI cannot replace:
- trust
- negotiation
- judgement
- integrity
- human responsibility
- on-the-ground knowledge
Nor should it.
Trading houses that automate themselves out of their soul will lose what made them competitive.
Technology is powerful; but it needs ethics, adults and accountability around it.
The Strategic Stance for Modern Traders
We are not competing against AI.
We are competing with it — against those who use it with more discipline and insight than we do.
Our competitive frontier is defined by:
- intelligence (human and machine)
- agility in volatile markets
- ethical sourcing and delivery
- sovereign and industrial partnership
- operational precision
This is the future of trading: not artificial intelligence replacing traders, but empowered intelligence augmenting them.
In short:
The future of commodities is not automated — it is augmented.
And at Gapuma, we are building exactly that model.
Conclusion: Trading With Integrity in an Intelligent Age
AI does not change who we are.
It changes what we are capable of.
Gapuma’s edge has always been rooted in:
- discipline
- long-term vision
- operational reliability
- relationship capital
- knowledge of markets and cultures
- and unwavering ethical conduct
Those values are not outdated — they are the foundation that gives technology meaning and direction.
AI will make global trade faster, sharper and more accountable. But success will still belong to those who:
- keep sight of the people behind the platforms
- stay humble before complexity
- use data without losing judgement
- and treat ethical trading not as compliance, but as responsibility
That is how we build industries.
That is how we build trust.
And that is how we lead — not only technologically, but morally and operationally.
Artificial intelligence is here.
Human intelligence remains sovereign.
The future belongs to those who excel at both.