Natural Gas and Net Zero

17th September 2025

At a Critical Crossroads

S&P Global Commodity Insights has projected that natural gas will be the only fossil fuel to increase its share in the energy mix of the United States, China, and India by 2050, even as oil and coal use steadily decline. The report emphasises natural gas as a pragmatic “bridge fuel” – cleaner than coal, scalable, and more flexible than oil – providing much-needed security as countries transition towards low-carbon alternatives.

Yet this outlook raises a fundamental tension when measured against the international commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Points of Convergence

There are areas where the S&P forecast and the net zero vision overlap. Gas, while not without carbon emissions, can underpin efforts to retire coal and stabilise grids where renewables remain intermittent. India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, targeting five million metric tonnes of annual production by 2030, similarly supports longer-term decarbonisation goals by building new industrial ecosystems around clean energy.

Government policies – such as India’s PAHAL scheme shifting households away from traditional biomass towards LPG, or the rise of renewable electricity generation globally – also suggest that progress is being made in diversifying the energy mix.

Points of Divergence

However, the differences are stark. The IEA’s Net Zero scenario expects renewables to account for around two-thirds of global energy supply by 2050, yet S&P Global projects only 20%. Moreover, net zero roadmaps anticipate fossil gas demand peaking in the 2030s before falling by as much as 80–90% by mid-century. By contrast, the S&P analysis sees gas remaining central in the world’s three largest energy consumers.

India’s growing reliance on oil imports, its declining domestic production, and its active expansion of exploration blocks through policies such as the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy underline just how entrenched fossil fuels are likely to remain. Economic growth, urbanisation, and increased transport demand are all expected to push oil use higher into the 2030s, conflicting with the urgent need for absolute reductions in fossil consumption.

A Balancing Act

For businesses and policymakers alike, this dichotomy reflects the complexity of the energy transition. Security, affordability, and sustainability must be balanced. Natural gas provides a critical buffer, but without rapid acceleration of investment in renewables, green hydrogen, electrification, and carbon capture technologies, the net zero goal risks slipping out of reach.

At Gapuma, we view this not as a contradiction but as a challenge to innovate and adapt. The energy transition will not be uniform; different regions will move at different speeds, shaped by local resources, infrastructure, and political priorities. Our role lies in helping to build the resilient supply chains and sustainable trade systems that can underpin this shift, ensuring that growth and decarbonisation progress hand in hand.