LNG Freight Market: Signs of Life, But Fundamentals Still Fragile

9th July

The second quarter of 2025 brought a temporary lift in LNG freight rates, briefly rekindling hopes of a broader recovery. Spot market activity picked up, geopolitical tensions nudged rates upward, and a few well-timed tenders added to the movement. But beneath the surface, little has changed. The fundamentals remain weighed down by chronic oversupply and a steady stream of newbuild LNG carriers—more than fifty of which are still scheduled to hit the water this year.

At Gapuma, we recognise the signs of a market still wrestling with structural imbalance. While Q2’s flurry may have offered tactical opportunities for agile players, it does not herald a true reversal. The market remains oversaturated, particularly as shorter voyage lengths in the Atlantic basin reduce tonne-mile demand, allowing vessels to cycle faster and re-enter the charter pool sooner. Meanwhile, the rate volatility we’ve seen—rising in late June, only to soften again weeks later—is more a reflection of fleet repositioning and risk premiums than renewed fundamentals.

Still, there are positive signals to monitor. Asian demand continues its gradual climb, and Europe remains a dynamic outlet for flexible LNG volumes. Political flashpoints—especially in the Middle East and around key maritime chokepoints—can rapidly absorb spare tonnage and temporarily tighten supply. But these moments remain episodic and should not be confused with sustained recovery.

What matters now is not the noise, but how we respond to it. Gapuma continues to prioritise discipline in cargo allocation, precision in market timing, and flexibility in freight strategy. As others chase the latest bump, we’re preparing for the long game—poised for when the market begins to rebalance in earnest.